Autonomy

The automobile revolutionized transportation and shaped modern society, but our current system of personal car ownership and fossil fuel-powered vehicles is deeply flawed. In "Autonomy", Lawrence D. Burns explores how self-driving electric vehicles could transform mobility and create a cleaner, safer, and more efficient transportation system. Drawing on his experience as a former executive at General Motors and advisor to Google's self-driving car project, Burns provides an insider's view of the race to develop autonomous vehicles and the profound impacts they could have on our lives, cities, and planet.

The Problems with Our Current Transportation System

Inefficiency of Gas-Powered Vehicles

Our roads are dominated by gasoline-powered vehicles with internal combustion engines, but these machines are shockingly inefficient:

• Less than 30% of the energy from gasoline is actually used to move the vehicle. The rest is wasted as heat or used to power accessories.
• Because the average car weighs about 3,000 pounds and the average person only 150 pounds, a mere 5% of the fuel energy is used to transport the driver.
• Traffic congestion in cities leads to average speeds as low as 12 mph, which is highly fuel-inefficient.
• Most cars only have one occupant, wasting space and energy to transport empty seats.

Inefficient Use of Space

Our car-centric system also uses space very inefficiently:

• Cars are only used about 5% of the time, sitting idle the other 95%.
• We dedicate huge amounts of land to parking lots and garages.
• These expanses of asphalt create "heat islands" that increase urban temperatures.
• Valuable real estate that could be used for housing, businesses, or green space is instead paved over for car storage.

Environmental and Safety Issues

Our current transportation system also creates major environmental and safety problems:

• Fossil fuel dependence contributes to climate change and geopolitical conflicts.
• Vehicle emissions cause air pollution and associated health issues.
• Over 1 million people die in car crashes globally each year.
• Traffic noise creates stress and reduces quality of life in urban areas.

Given these immense drawbacks, Burns argues that moving away from our current system of personal gas-powered vehicles is not just desirable, but necessary. The question is not if we should change, but how quickly we can transition to a better alternative.

The Dream of Automation

Larry Page's Vision

Google co-founder Larry Page was an early visionary of autonomous vehicles. As a student at the University of Michigan, Page experienced the frustrations of relying on public transit in a car-centric environment:

• Dark, frigid winter evenings waiting for infrequent buses
• Watching others zoom by in warm cars while he shivered at bus stops
• Traffic jams caused by so many single-occupancy vehicles

This led Page to dream of an alternative: a system of automated two-person pods that could be summoned on demand. This vision stayed with him even as he went on to create Google.

Lawrence Burns' Epiphany

The author had his own realization about the need for change after witnessing the 9/11 attacks while on a business trip. As an executive at General Motors, he concluded that the auto industry's reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports bore some responsibility for the geopolitical tensions that led to the attacks.

Burns resolved that continuing to expand the use of gas-powered vehicles was deeply irresponsible. He committed himself to driving change in the auto industry toward more sustainable and ethical transportation solutions.

Early Steps Toward Automation

The DARPA Grand Challenge

A key catalyst for autonomous vehicle development was a series of races organized by DARPA (the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) in the mid-2000s. The military wanted to develop autonomous supply vehicles to reduce casualties from roadside bombs.

DARPA offered a $1 million prize to any team that could build a robot vehicle capable of navigating a 150-mile desert course. The first race in 2004 was a failure - no vehicle completed more than 5% of the course. But it spurred rapid innovation:

• Carnegie Mellon's Red Team, led by roboticist Red Whittaker, converted a Humvee into an autonomous vehicle named Sandstorm.
• They equipped it with LIDAR sensors and GPS, testing it extensively at an abandoned steel mill.
• Though Sandstorm only made it 7 miles before getting stuck, the team learned valuable lessons.

DARPA announced a second race for the following year with a $2 million prize. This competition drove major advancements in autonomous vehicle technology.

Key Innovations from the DARPA Challenges

Several breakthroughs emerged from teams competing in the DARPA races:

1. Terrain mapping and obstacle avoidance:

   • Sebastian Thrun, working on Stanford's entry, applied techniques he'd developed for a museum guide robot named Minerva.
   • The robot used laser range-finders to map its environment and detect obstacles.
   • This became a foundation for autonomous vehicles to understand their surroundings.

2. The "shake and shimmy" method:

   • Carnegie Mellon's team developed a technique for their robot to reassess uncertain situations.
   • When encountering an obstacle, it would stop, reverse slightly, then inch forward to re-evaluate.
   • This mimicked how humans deal with unclear visual information.

3. Machine learning algorithms:

   • Teams applied artificial intelligence to help vehicles make real-time driving decisions.
   • This laid groundwork for the neural networks used in modern self-driving cars.

The pressure of competition forced teams to rapidly iterate and learn from productive failures. Many participants, like Chris Urmson and Sebastian Thrun, went on to lead autonomous vehicle efforts at major tech companies.

Contrasting Approaches: Detroit vs Silicon Valley

Detroit's Legacy

The modern auto industry was born in Detroit with Henry Ford's innovations in mass production. This shaped American culture around car ownership as a symbol of freedom and identity. Detroit's strengths were in hardware engineering:

• Expertise in engines, drivetrains, and vehicle manufacturing
• Focus on incremental improvements to existing technology
• A culture of hands-on mechanical work

When early ideas about computerized or autonomous vehicles emerged, many in Detroit were skeptical and dismissive.

Silicon Valley's Software Focus

In contrast, Silicon Valley approached vehicle automation from a software and artificial intelligence perspective:

• Expertise in algorithms, sensors, and data processing
• A culture of radical innovation and disruption
• Comfort with rapid iteration and "failing fast"

Tech leaders like Google's Larry Page saw autonomous vehicles as a natural extension of their work in robotics and AI.

Clash of Cultures

The differing mindsets of Detroit and Silicon Valley led to some tension and rivalry:

• Detroit saw Silicon Valley as naive about the complexities of auto manufacturing and safety regulations.
• Silicon Valley viewed Detroit as stuck in the past and resistant to change.

A 2011 Fiat Chrysler commercial mocked the idea of self-driving cars, comparing them to dystopian sci-fi robots.

However, the reality was more nuanced. Detroit's legacy of personal mobility was a necessary precursor to the autonomous vehicle revolution. And in the mid-2000s, even traditional automakers like General Motors began seriously exploring alternative propulsion and autonomous technologies.

General Motors Pushes Electric Vehicle Development

In the mid-2000s, General Motors ramped up research into alternative propulsion vehicles under the leadership of the author, Lawrence Burns. This effort led to some key realizations about the future of the auto industry:

The E-Flex Architecture Epiphany

Burns had a profound insight when shown GM's new electric vehicle platform, the E-Flex Architecture:

1. A traditional gas-powered Chevy Malibu was displayed, fully disassembled into thousands of parts.
2. Next was a Toyota Prius hybrid, with even more components.
3. Finally, the E-Flex electric vehicle platform was shown - startlingly simple in comparison.

This visual comparison made clear several implications:

• Electric vehicles would require far fewer parts, disrupting the entire auto supply chain.
• Assembly would be simpler, requiring less labor but more specialized skills.
• The shift from mechanical to electrical systems would make software expertise crucial.

Industry-Wide Impacts

When Burns showed this to GM's CEO Rick Wagoner, he recognized it as the end of the traditional integrated auto industry. The transition to electric and autonomous vehicles would cause massive disruption:

• Many parts suppliers would become obsolete or need to radically change their business.
• The workforce would shift from mechanical to electrical and software engineering.
• Traditional auto mechanics would need entirely new skillsets.
• The economics of vehicle production and ownership would fundamentally change.

This realization spurred GM to accelerate its electric and autonomous vehicle programs, even as it caused anxiety about the company's future.

The Coming Age of Automation

End of Private Car Ownership

Our current transportation system is built around private car ownership, but this model is likely to disappear:

• Instead of owning vehicles, people will summon autonomous rides on-demand via smartphone apps.
• Most rides will use efficient two-person vehicles, since most trips involve 1-2 passengers.
• Without the need for parking, vehicles will continuously circulate, providing rides.
• The concept of cars as status symbols will fade as shared mobility becomes the norm.

Economic Disruption

The shift to autonomous shared vehicles will cause major economic changes:

• Long-haul trucking and delivery costs could drop by 50%, boosting e-commerce and small businesses.
• Many driving jobs (truckers, taxi drivers, etc.) will disappear.
• Auto manufacturers will transition from selling cars to operating autonomous fleets.
• The auto insurance industry will shrink as accidents become rare.
• Real estate values will shift as parking areas are repurposed.

Societal Changes

Autonomous vehicles will reshape how we live and work:

• Commutes will become productive time for work or leisure.
• Mobility will increase for elderly, disabled, and young people.
• Urban planning will prioritize pedestrians over vehicles.
• Long-distance car travel may increase as fatigue is no longer a factor.

Environmental Benefits

The combination of electric propulsion and shared autonomous fleets could dramatically reduce transportation's environmental impact:

• Lower overall energy use through optimized routing and higher utilization
• Elimination of fossil fuel emissions with renewable electricity
• Reduced need for parking lots and road expansion
• Potential for smaller, lighter vehicles designed for typical use cases

While the transition will be disruptive, Burns argues the benefits of autonomous electric vehicles far outweigh the costs of maintaining our current inefficient and dangerous transportation system.

A Glimpse of the Future

To illustrate how autonomous vehicles might change daily life, Burns paints a picture of a typical family commute in 2031:

The Wilkerson Family Morning

• Parents Mary and Thomas, with children Tommy Jr. (9) and Tammy (11), live in suburban Chicago
• They summon a shared autonomous vehicle for their morning commute
• The hydrogen fuel cell-powered four-seater arrives promptly

The Commute Experience

• The family spends quality time together during the hour-long ride
• They play games and review photos without worry of carsickness due to the smooth ride
• Parents help kids with last-minute homework checks
• Outside, traffic flows smoothly with no congestion

A Transformed Urban Landscape

• Streets are redesigned for pedestrians, with wide sidewalks and green spaces
• Former parking lots are now parks, plazas, and cafes
• Accidents are a thing of the past

Seamless Transitions

• The vehicle drops the children at school, then takes the parents to work
• It departs to pick up its next passengers or await another assignment

This vignette highlights how autonomous shared vehicles could make commutes more pleasant and productive while transforming cityscapes to be more people-friendly.

Key Takeaways

1. Our current transportation system based on privately-owned gas-powered vehicles is inefficient, dangerous, and environmentally destructive.

2. A combination of electric propulsion and autonomous driving technology could create a radically better mobility system.

3. Early work on autonomous vehicles was driven by military goals and accelerated through competitive races organized by DARPA.

4. Traditional auto manufacturers (centered in Detroit) and tech companies (in Silicon Valley) brought different but complementary expertise to solving autonomy challenges.

5. The shift to electric powertrains will massively simplify vehicle design and disrupt existing supply chains and labor needs.

6. Autonomous shared vehicle fleets will likely replace private car ownership for most people, reshaping cities and daily routines.

7. While the transition will be disruptive to many industries, the potential benefits in safety, efficiency, and environmental impact are enormous.

8. The autonomous vehicle revolution combines innovations in artificial intelligence, sensor technology, electric propulsion, and shared mobility business models.

Conclusion

Lawrence Burns presents a compelling vision of how autonomous electric vehicles could transform transportation. By eliminating human error, optimizing traffic flow, and shifting to clean energy, self-driving cars promise to solve many of the worst problems caused by our current mobility system.

The path to this future is not simple, requiring advances in technology, changes to infrastructure, updates to regulations, and shifts in consumer behavior. However, Burns argues that the potential benefits are so great that this transition is both necessary and inevitable.

As we stand on the cusp of this transportation revolution, "Autonomy" provides valuable context for understanding how we got here and where we might be going. It challenges readers to imagine a world beyond private car ownership and fossil fuels - a world of seamless, safe, sustainable mobility for all.

The autonomous vehicle future may arrive sooner than many expect. By understanding the forces driving this change, we can better prepare for and shape the transportation systems of tomorrow. Whether you're an auto industry insider, a tech enthusiast, or simply someone who uses roads, the ideas in this book offer an intriguing glimpse into a rapidly approaching future that will affect us all.