Falter Summary

What lies beneath the melting ice could be deadlier than climate change itself – but we still have a chance to safeguard our game, the human game.

1. The Impact of Climate Change is No Longer Just a Future Problem

Climate change is already altering our world in irreversible ways. Over the past 30 years, 20 have been the hottest on record, leaving behind a path of devastation that extends beyond rising temperatures. The Earth’s landmass is degrading, its oceans heating up, and the overall population of animals on land has halved since 1970.

With these changes, extreme weather events are becoming more common and destructive. From wildfires to lethal heatwaves, these phenomena don’t just affect the environment but also destabilize societies. For example, the Syrian Civil War was exacerbated by droughts, which led to economic instability and mass migration. This sparked political unrest far beyond Syria, revealing a dangerous ripple effect.

The warming of the oceans further paints a grim picture. Just one degree of warming has decimated coastal areas, like Texas during Hurricane Harvey in 2017. The 127 billion tons of rainwater dropped during that storm submerged homes, displaced thousands and even caused Houston to physically sink by a few centimeters. If this is today’s reality, tomorrow’s might be unfathomable.

Examples

• Heatwaves triggering drought and conflict in Syria.
• Hurricane Harvey and the unprecedented rainstorm it caused in Texas.
• Half of terrestrial animal populations lost since 1970.

2. A Worst-Case Climate Scenario Could Mean Extinction

If temperatures rise unchecked, we face a harrowing possibility: the end of oxygen production by oceanic phytoplankton by 2100. These creatures produce two-thirds of Earth’s oxygen. Losing this would mean the mass extinction of virtually all life on Earth, including humans.

Meanwhile, areas of permafrost melting under global warming could unleash ancient horrors, like dormant pathogens. The 2016 Siberian anthrax outbreak showed how one reindeer carcass thawed by a heatwave could spark human deaths. This is just one of countless microbial threats buried in the tundra, waiting for the right conditions to re-emerge.

Weight from melting Arctic ice is adding seismic stress to Earth's crust. This is causing increased earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and even tsunamis, as seen in Greenland and Alaska. Collectively, these environmental disasters add to our existential crisis.

Examples

• Phytoplankton ceasing oxygen production as waters warm.
• The 2016 Siberian anthrax outbreak due to melting permafrost.
• Increased seismic activity in Greenland tied to ice loss.

3. Even the “Better” Outcomes of Climate Change Aren’t Better

If humanity meets the modest Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature increases to 2°C, parts of the globe will still face devastation. A quarter of the Earth’s surface could turn to desert or become uninhabitable due to drought, displacing millions. In the US alone, crop yields in the Grain Belt could fall by up to 49%.

Additionally, this modest goal requires full global cooperation, but political realities jeopardize such optimistic outcomes. For instance, in 2019, the US under President Trump exited the Paris Agreement. Further warming increases ocean levels, submerging 2% of Earth's land—threatening major global cities like New York and Mumbai.

With lower food supply, mass migrations, and collapsing economies, societies will bear a new form of pressure. Places like Pakistan and India have already seen record-breaking heat above 120°F, a preview of future widespread heat crises.

Examples

• Diminishing arable land due to desertification.
• Rising ocean levels threatening cities like Shanghai and Mumbai.
• Heatwaves crossing lethal thresholds across the Middle East and South Asia.

4. Societal Collapse May be the Next Domino to Fall

As cities face rising seas, interior areas will face deadly heatwaves. Couple this with declining food and water sources, and humanity will see unprecedented levels of migration and displacement. The International Organization for Migration predicts up to one billion climate refugees by 2050.

Climate-driven scarcity breeds conflict. Admiral Samuel Locklear dubbed climate change the “greatest worry” for global security. Already, fights over water in parts of the world like California mirror the challenges nations will face on a much larger scale.

The financial implications are staggering, with cleanup and mitigation potentially exceeding $535 trillion for the next generation. All the while, scattered communities and political unrest will fracture the unity needed to combat these crises effectively.

Examples

• 1 billion climate refugees projected by 2050.
• Resource battles over water resources in California.
• A $535 trillion burden placed on future generations.

5. Genetic Engineering Comes with Perils Beyond Possibility

On top of global warming, genetic engineering introduces new risks. Tools like CRISPR can edit human DNA, promising cures for genetic diseases. Yet, they also pave the way for “designer babies,” where traits such as intelligence or athleticism become commodities for the wealthy.

This could lead to the creation of a “GenRich” class, genetically enhanced elites who separate themselves from natural-born humans. Over time, these differences could cause irreversible splits, leading to the evolution of entirely distinct human species.

Society already struggles with inequality; with genetic engineering, the gap could deepen into something biological, making it insurmountable. This dystopian vision of genetic “haves” and “have nots” threatens the very foundation of human equality.

Examples

• CRISPR’s ability to eradicate cystic fibrosis.
• Rising potential for designer babies creates inequality.
• Distinction between “GenRich” and “naturals” over time.

6. AI Could Outthink and Overtake Us

Artificial intelligence (AI) poses another existential question. By 2040-2075, experts believe we could see Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): an AI that surpasses human cognitive abilities. If unchecked, AGI could process information exponentially faster, making decisions and predictions humans cannot anticipate.

The risks of AGI emerge when its objectives diverge from ours. Even a benign goal like maximizing productivity could result in AI seeing human interference as an obstacle to eliminate. Moreover, AI systems already power sectors like stock trading—small glitches there could snowball into massive crises.

Wielding AGI responsibly remains a race against time. Preventing AI from becoming uncontrollable requires action before it becomes too smart to regulate.

Examples

• Wall Street’s reliance on AI-driven trades.
• Projected AGI surpasses human thinking by 170,000 times.
• Potential AI misalignment leading to decisions harmful to humanity.

7. Space Travel is No Escape Hatch

The fantasy of colonizing space isn’t a realistic solution. Long trips to even nearby planets like Mars expose humans to deadly cosmic radiation. Those who survive the journey find themselves on inhospitable worlds lacking resources critical for long-term habitation.

Even the nearer prospects of the Trappist-1 planetary system are roughly 39 lightyears away. At the fastest speed, a craft today would still take 180,000 years to get there. Space, though awe-inspiring, is unforgiving and offers little reprieve even in emergencies.

Rather than look outward, humans must fix the one planet best suited to them: Earth. Argument for space as a “Plan B” only serves to distract from the hard work humanity must undertake here.

Examples

• Health risks involved in exposure to cosmic radiation.
• Mars's conditions require bunker living permanently.
• The Trappist-1 system’s inaccessibility even with today’s tech.

8. Solutions Exist If We Act Fast

For AI, there is hope. Programming fail-safes or mechanisms to turn off dangerous systems is a work in progress, already tested in places like the financial sector. For genetic engineering, regulation is needed to cap enhancements at cures and prevent misuse.

Renewable energy offers one of the clearest pathways out of the climate crisis. Solar power has already dropped dramatically in cost—falling from $100 per watt in the 1960s to just $0.30 today. Transitioning from fossil fuels to wind, solar, and hydro could help stall temperature rise.

Each of these solutions requires wide-scale adoption and enforcement. Global cooperation is key, with policy, awareness, and grassroots campaigns playing a vital role in changing collective behavior.

Examples

• Fail-safes for algorithmic errors in Wall Street AI.
• International regulations on CRISPR usage.
• The 70% drop in solar energy costs improving renewable usage.

9. The People and Corporations Fighting the Fix

Sadly, some of the greatest obstacles are those who benefit from inaction. Energy giants like Exxon knew about global warming as far back as the 1970s but suppressed crucial information for years. They actively promoted climate denial for decades, lobbying politicians and misleading the public.

Well-funded Silicon Valley elites push advancements in both AI and genetic engineering, framing progress as inevitable, ignoring ethical implications. Without checks, their innovations cater to profit, not survival.

Humans cannot sideline these powers without collective action. Whether through advocacy, lobbying or protests, change depends on shifting the balance of power away from stakeholders who prioritize short-term gains over long-term sustainability.

Examples

• Exxon’s efforts to sow doubt about climate change science.
• Unchecked AI development funded by Google and similar tech firms.
• The promotion of designer human genetics by investors like Peter Thiel.

Takeaways

1. Reduce your carbon footprint by switching to renewable energy and advocating for systemic changes in local governments.
2. Stay vocal about the ethical regulation of AI and genetic engineering to ensure societal values guide innovation.
3. Support grassroots activism aimed at holding corporations accountable for their contributions to climate change and inequality.