Introduction
In "Life After Google," author George Gilder presents a thought-provoking exploration of the current digital landscape dominated by tech giants like Google, and envisions a future where decentralized technologies like blockchain and cryptocurrencies reshape our online world. Gilder argues that the era of centralized data and free services supported by advertising is coming to an end, to be replaced by a more secure and individualized internet ecosystem.
The book takes readers on a journey through the rise of Google's data-centric model, its limitations, and the emerging technologies that challenge its dominance. Gilder introduces us to the concept of the "cryptocosm," a new paradigm built on blockchain technology that promises to revolutionize how we interact online, conduct business, and protect our personal information.
Google's System of the World
Gilder begins by examining Google's current dominance and the system it has created. He argues that Google has essentially defined our current "system of the world" - the set of ideas that shape a society's technology, institutions, and citizens' lives.
Big Data and the Cloud
At the heart of Google's system is the concept of big data. Unlike traditional methods of knowledge acquisition, which build step-by-step on previous ideas, Google's approach is to gather all the world's information in one place - the cloud. This massive database includes everything from web pages and books to maps and facial recognition data.
Google's vision is to analyze this vast trove of information using sophisticated algorithms to extract new insights and knowledge. This approach requires an enormous amount of data, which is at odds with the concept of privacy. In Google's world, more data is always better, and personal privacy is seen as an obstacle to progress.
The Advertising Model
Google's business model is primarily based on advertising, which accounts for 95% of its revenue. Instead of paying for Google's services with money, users pay with their time and attention. This model has been incredibly successful, but it's not without its challenges. The rise of ad-blockers (usage increased by 102% between 2015 and 2016) shows that many users are growing tired of constant advertising.
The Siren Servers
To support its data-centric model, Google has built massive data centers, such as the one near The Dalles, Oregon, which houses 75,000 computer servers and handles 3.5 billion searches per day. These centers have become a new benchmark for tech companies - the more storage and processing power you can offer, the better you are perceived to be.
However, Jaron Lanier, known as the inventor of virtual reality, refers to these huge centers as "Siren Servers," drawing a parallel to the mythical sirens that lured sailors to their doom. Gilder suggests that these very centers, which have given Google and others apparent market dominance, might actually be leading them towards an early demise.
The AI Myth
Gilder then tackles the topic of Artificial Intelligence (AI), which many in Silicon Valley see as both inevitable and potentially dangerous. He argues that these fears are largely unfounded and based on a misunderstanding of the nature of intelligence and logical systems.
The Incompleteness of Logical Systems
To explain why AI is unlikely to become the existential threat many fear, Gilder delves into the history of mathematics. He discusses the work of Kurt Gödel, who demonstrated that there can be no absolutely complete logical system. Any logical system, including mathematical ones, depends on premises that can't be proved within the system itself - there's always a need for an outside authority.
This principle applies to AI as well. For AI to be truly dangerous in the way many Silicon Valley figures fear, it would need to be a complete system. But as Gödel showed, this is impossible. AI will always require human input and programming, meaning it can't spontaneously evolve into a superintelligence that outpaces and dominates humanity.
Gilder suggests that these fears of tyrannical AI are more reflective of the scientists' and engineers' own anxieties about their supposedly superior intelligence than of any real threat.
The Need for Educational Reform
Gilder then turns his attention to the American education system, arguing that many institutions are failing to embrace progress and innovation. He contrasts this with forward-thinking initiatives like the Universidad Francisco Marroquín in Guatemala, which became the first university in the Americas to accept bitcoin payments in 2013.
The Problem with American Universities
Many American universities, Gilder argues, are too focused on reactionary measures or on burnishing their own reputations rather than on fostering innovation. He cites Harvard's focus on divesting from fossil fuels as an example of teaching students how to stop things rather than how to innovate and create solutions for the future.
He also criticizes the trend of rising tuition costs without corresponding improvements in education quality, using George Washington University as an example where tuition nearly doubled over 20 years with little apparent benefit to students.
The Thiel Fellowship and 1517 Fund
As a counterpoint to these trends, Gilder highlights initiatives like the Thiel Fellowship, created by entrepreneur Peter Thiel. This program offers $100,000 grants to promising young people to quit college and pursue their own projects, with the aim of fostering entrepreneurship rather than producing more academics.
He also discusses the 1517 Fund, founded by former Thiel Fellowship leaders, which invests in young company founders. Named after the year Martin Luther posted his 95 Theses, the fund posted its own "New 95" in 2017, arguing that the current education system was hindering scientific progress and should be rebelled against.
Gilder provides examples of successful Thiel Fellows, such as Austin Russell, whose company Luminar builds laser-radar chips for self-driving cars, and Vitalik Buterin, who went on to create the blockchain platform Ethereum.
The Rise of the Cryptocosm
The heart of Gilder's argument revolves around what he calls the "cryptocosm," a new online world built on blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies. This new paradigm, he argues, will fundamentally change how we interact online and conduct business.
Bitcoin and Blockchain
Gilder traces the birth of this new era to October 2008, when the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto introduced bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency. To understand bitcoin and its implications, Gilder explains the basics of blockchain technology.
In the cryptocosm, personal data is decentralized rather than stored in central hubs. Each user has two keys - one public and one private. Messages are encrypted using the public key but can only be deciphered with the private key, ensuring security and privacy.
Blockchain technology works by creating blocks of information every ten minutes, logging all recent bitcoin transactions. Each block includes a time-stamp, created through a process called mining, where computers across the network solve complex algorithmic problems. This process makes the information in each block trustworthy and nearly impossible to hack.
The blockchain itself is a chronological chain of these blocks, each with a unique fingerprint that leaves traces in subsequent blocks. This makes it possible to trace any bitcoin's history back to its creation, while also making the entire system extremely secure against hacking or fraud.
Ethereum and Smart Contracts
Gilder then introduces Ethereum, another major player in the blockchain world. Founded by Vitalik Buterin, Ethereum is a blockchain platform designed to handle more than just cryptocurrencies, most notably "smart contracts."
Smart contracts allow parties to send assets via the blockchain, which are then automatically released or refunded based on whether all parties comply with the contract terms. This system sidesteps many traditional regulatory hurdles and has enabled a wave of new entrepreneurial activity.
Ethereum also has its own cryptocurrency, ether, which by May 2018 had reached a market cap of nearly $60 billion, about half that of bitcoin. Gilder suggests that Ethereum and bitcoin might end up dominating different aspects of the cryptocosm, likening their relationship to that between a lion and a shark.
Blockstack and Decentralized Apps
Another company Gilder highlights is Blockstack, led by Muneeb Ali. Blockstack is building a new network for decentralized blockchain apps, providing both a browsable network and an open-source platform for app development.
Blockstack's system is built on two key structures: a "monolith," which is the underlying blockchain software, and a "metaverse," a visible platform where users can create, surf, and share as they please. This system aims to make it easier for both developers and users to enter the world of blockchain technology.
The Hardware Renaissance
While much of the book focuses on software and online systems, Gilder also discusses important developments in hardware that are challenging Google's dominance.
Moore's Law and Bell's Law
Gilder introduces Moore's Law, which states that the cost-effectiveness of circuits doubles every two years, and its corollary, Bell's Law, which predicts that every decade, a significant drop in processing power costs leads to the development of a new computer architecture. He suggests that we may be due for another such shift.
The Return to Silicon
In Silicon Valley, Gilder observes a rebirth of hardware manufacturing. Companies like Nvidia, under chief scientist Bill Dally, are moving away from fast but energy-demanding "hot" chips towards cooler and more efficient ones. These new processors, with their parallel processing systems, could be crucial for emerging technologies like sensors for self-driving cars.
Distributed Computing: Golem
While Google and other tech giants focus on achieving cheaper and more powerful processing for their centralized servers, Gilder highlights alternative approaches like Golem. Built on the Ethereum blockchain, Golem allows users to rent out their unused computer processing power, creating a vast, distributed supercomputer.
This approach provides immense processing power without requiring massive, centralized data centers. It allows users to perform complex tasks like computer graphics rendering at a fraction of the usual cost, while keeping individual data secure through blockchain technology.
The Gold Standard and Bitcoin's Limitations
In the final sections of the book, Gilder explores the concept of currency stability and how it relates to cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.
The Historical Gold Standard
Gilder discusses the gold standard established by Isaac Newton in the 18th century, which for nearly 200 years allowed governments to guarantee their currencies against the value of gold. Gold was chosen for its resistance to corrosion and its predictable supply, which increases gradually enough to have minimal impact on its value.
This standard provided a stable touchstone against which to measure the volatile elements of international economics, such as exchange rates and interest rates.
Bitcoin's Attempt at a New Standard
When Satoshi Nakamoto created bitcoin, one of the goals was to create a new, digital "gold standard." The bitcoin mining algorithm was designed to become progressively more difficult, mirroring the increasing difficulty of gold mining. The total supply of bitcoins was also capped at 21 million, with the mineable amount halving each year.
The Flaw in Bitcoin's Design
However, Gilder argues that bitcoin can't truly become a new standard because it's already a token of exchange, and a highly volatile one at that. Because its supply is fixed, the only way it can react to changes in demand is through wild fluctuations in value. Between 2017 and 2018, for example, bitcoin's value ranged from $1,183 to $19,401.
This volatility makes bitcoin unsuitable as a stable standard against which other values can be measured. While Nakamoto made significant technological advances with blockchain and cryptocurrencies, Gilder suggests that his understanding of real-world economics may have been flawed.
The Future Beyond Google
As Gilder concludes his exploration of the post-Google world, he paints a picture of a future where centralized data storage and ad-supported free services give way to a more decentralized, secure, and individualized internet ecosystem.
The Limitations of Google's Model
Google's current dominance is built on a model that prioritizes data accumulation over individual privacy and security. While this has led to many useful services and innovations, it's also created vulnerabilities and raised concerns about data ownership and privacy.
The Promise of the Cryptocosm
The cryptocosm, built on blockchain technology, offers a potential solution to many of these issues. By decentralizing data storage and enabling secure, peer-to-peer transactions, blockchain could fundamentally alter how we interact online.
Smart contracts and decentralized apps could streamline business processes and create new opportunities for innovation. Cryptocurrencies might provide alternatives to traditional banking systems, potentially increasing financial inclusion and stability in parts of the world currently underserved by banks.
Challenges and Opportunities
However, the transition to this new paradigm won't be without challenges. Cryptocurrencies still face issues of volatility and scalability. Blockchain technology, while promising, is still in its early stages and faces hurdles in terms of energy consumption and transaction speed.
Moreover, established players like Google are unlikely to cede their dominance without a fight. They have vast resources and data at their disposal, which they can leverage to adapt to changing technologies and consumer preferences.
The Role of Education and Innovation
Gilder emphasizes the importance of fostering innovation and entrepreneurship, particularly among young people. He sees initiatives like the Thiel Fellowship as crucial for nurturing the next generation of tech leaders who will shape the post-Google world.
Educational institutions, he argues, need to shift their focus from maintaining the status quo to encouraging creative problem-solving and risk-taking. This might involve rethinking traditional degree programs and embracing new technologies and teaching methods.
A New Era of Security and Individuality
Ultimately, Gilder envisions a future where individuals have greater control over their personal data and online identities. Instead of relying on centralized servers vulnerable to hacks and data breaches, people might store their information across decentralized networks, accessible only with their private keys.
This could lead to new models of online interaction, where users can choose what information to share and with whom, rather than having their data harvested and analyzed by large corporations.
Conclusion
"Life After Google" presents a compelling vision of a potential future, one where the centralized, data-hungry model of companies like Google gives way to a more distributed, secure, and individualized internet ecosystem.
Gilder's exploration of blockchain technology, cryptocurrencies, and decentralized computing paints a picture of a digital world that prioritizes security, privacy, and individual control. While he acknowledges the current dominance of tech giants like Google, he argues that their model is ultimately unsustainable and ripe for disruption.
The book serves as both a critique of the current digital landscape and a roadmap for its potential future. Gilder's insights into emerging technologies and their potential impacts provide readers with a framework for understanding the ongoing shifts in the tech world.
However, it's important to note that Gilder's vision is just one possible future among many. The tech world is notoriously difficult to predict, and established players like Google have shown remarkable adaptability in the face of changing technologies and consumer preferences.
Nonetheless, "Life After Google" offers a thought-provoking look at the potential of blockchain and related technologies to reshape our digital world. Whether or not Gilder's specific predictions come to pass, his book encourages readers to think critically about the current state of the internet and to imagine alternative ways of structuring our online interactions.
As we move further into the digital age, books like "Life After Google" serve as important contributions to the ongoing conversation about privacy, security, and the future of the internet. They challenge us to look beyond the status quo and consider how emerging technologies might be harnessed to create a more equitable, secure, and user-centric online world.