Non-Obvious

To predict future trends, you must see beyond the obvious and dive into the hidden connections shaping tomorrow's behaviors.

1. Trends Are Found in the Unseen, Not the Obvious

Predicting the future often leads to obvious guesses that miss the mark entirely. People predicted flying cars in the 1960s but failed to foresee the decline in space exploration enthusiasm. This mistake stems from focusing too much on immediate surroundings rather than the less visible forces at play.

Non-obvious trends are subtle and hidden beneath layers of noise. They are not apparent, which is why discovering them requires a deeper understanding of the underlying dynamics. Trends aren’t about merely predicting technological advancements; they emerge from societal behaviors, attitudes, and aspirations that evolve over time.

The role of a trend curator is to observe, collect, and interpret these scattered signals. Much like a museum curator gathers meaningful art pieces, trend curators must actively piece together patterns and create a narrative that explains what's happening around them.

Examples

• Social media and personalized ads nudging people toward heightened self-promotion.
• The failure of early space-age predictions about colonizing the moon.
• Emerging connections between mindfulness behaviors and corporate practices.

2. The Haystack Method: Pulling Patterns from a Pile of Data

Identifying trends is like finding a needle in a haystack—you need to sift through a sea of information. The haystack method is a step-by-step approach to organizing and uncovering patterns.

It begins with gathering diverse ideas and information from various sources and categories. Aggregating follows, where you group related insights to find common threads. Elevating these threads involves analyzing the broad themes that connect them and considering their possible impact.

Once a concept has surfaced, naming it succinctly makes it memorable and relatable. Finally, proving the trend means validating it against observed behaviors and ensuring it has influence and longevity.

Examples

• Combining consumer data on app features (e.g., shopping and medication price finders) to identify a desire for optimized experiences.
• Merging “economics” and “likability” into a memorable trend name like “Likeonomics.”
• Cross-checking patterns in wearable devices for health monitoring.

3. Cultivate Curiosity, Fickleness, and Observation

To curate trends effectively, you need curiosity, the courage to be fickle, and heightened observation skills. Curiosity involves asking probing “why” and “what if” questions, which help uncover meaning in seemingly random phenomena.

Being fickle allows you to avoid getting stuck on one idea. Exploring multiple possibilities improves the breadth of ideas and amplifies creativity. Observational skills round out this toolkit by helping you catch small, missed details—elements others often ignore.

Examples

• Viking explorer Bjarni Herjulfsson’s failure to investigate a new continent due to lacking curiosity.
• Exploring multiple design trends while building a new fashion line instead of settling early.
• Imagining how to explain daily features (like car colors or clothing styles) to an inquisitive child.

4. Practice Thoughtfulness and Elegance in Trend Creation

Thoughtfulness means reviewing and reflecting on all your collected material before jumping to conclusions. This calm pause prevents hasty, shallow ideas and allows meaningful connections to emerge. Rather than reacting impulsively, deep analysis leads you closer to the heart of the trend.

Elegance, on another front, is about delivering ideas in a simple yet captivating form. It’s the balance between expressing an idea thoroughly without overloading the sense of clarity.

Examples

• Thoughtful comments under online articles gaining attention from their authors.
• Using poetic metaphors to describe a new design principle to clients.
• Apple Product launches blending simplicity in messaging and visual allure.

5. Leverage Intersectionality to Maximize Trend Usage

Knowing trends isn’t enough; leveraging them requires innovative strategies such as intersectional thinking. This approach uncovers overlaps between trends, creating unique opportunities.

Consider products like RumChata, blending cultural and culinary facets for broad appeal. By intersecting ideas authentically and creatively, businesses can push the boundaries of innovation.

Examples

• RumChata's success merging Latin American culture and authentic food trends.
• Intersection of wearable tech and wellness in advanced fitness trackers.
• Combining digital convenience with tactile experience at Apple retail stores.

6. Customers Are Seeking Personalized and Mindful Experiences

Trends like "Everyday Stardom" reflect people's growing desire to feel unique and valued in their purchases. Companies like Disney create hyper-personalized customer experiences, turning everyday individuals into stars during their visits.

In parallel, “Mainstream Mindfulness” shows how society values thoughtfulness and balance. Businesses incorporating mindfulness strategies, such as yoga programs, show their commitment to well-being and attract a broader audience.

Examples

• Disney's MagicBand personalizing theme park experiences.
• Google's incorporation of mindfulness workshops for employees.
• Growth trends forecasting a 4.2% increase in US yoga practitioners.

7. Physical Retail Shifts to Build Brand Loyalty

Reversible retail highlights how the role of physical stores has shifted. While online shops dominate transactions, brick-and-mortar locations have become branding hubs where customers connect emotionally with companies.

Designing physical spaces to reflect a brand’s ethos turns stores into experiences rather than mere shopping locations.

Examples

• Apple Stores creating fostered technology havens showcasing expertise.
• Cafes using comfortable atmospheres to encourage brand affinity.
• Interactive demo spaces in showrooms enabling hands-on product trials.

8. On-Demand, Bite-Sized Consumption Gaining Popularity

Today’s consumers prefer paying for what they use rather than full packages, sparking the rise of microconsumption. Businesses that adopt this model see increased appreciation and customer retention.

Pay-only-for-what-you-laugh comedy tickets or article-sized purchases on digital media platforms prove popular due to flexibility and individual empowerment.

Examples

• Teatreneu Club basing ticket pricing on audience laughter levels.
• Kindle offering single-chapter purchases to its ebook readers.
• Platforms like iTunes selling individual songs over complete albums.

9. Distribution is Becoming More Direct and Disruptive

Disruptive distribution transforms the traditional supply model. Artists and businesses increasingly bypass middlemen to engage customers directly, thanks to digital platforms.

This shift encourages innovation and new distribution methods while maintaining stronger customer relationships.

Examples

• Taylor Swift hosting intimate gatherings with fans during new album launches.
• Restaurants offering personalized delivery through branded apps.
• Crowdsourcing as a direct funding and product distribution avenue.

Takeaways

1. Train yourself in curiosity and observation—question behaviors and trends in daily life to uncover meaningful patterns.
2. Use intersectional thinking to find promising overlaps between existing trends and formulate fresh concepts.
3. Simplify your ideas with elegance—focus on clarity and emotional resonance to make your trends memorable and impactful.