Predictable Success

Success is not a roll of the dice; it's about following a process that allows any organization to reach and sustain its goals.

1. Predictable Success is achievable, regardless of your company’s age, size, or resources.

Predictable success is when a business consistently meets its goals with confidence and reliability. Many believe it's an elusive state only reserved for large, established corporations, but that’s not the case. Any organization, no matter its resources, can achieve this level of stability when equipped with the right management and mindset.

Contrary to popular belief, age and financial resources don’t dictate success. Take Little & Co., a credit card payment processing firm that soared to the top of Inc. 500 within just five years. Comparatively, even a 120-year-old legacy company like SC Johnson operates in the same space of predictable success, proving it’s about effective management, not history. Similarly, a resource-rich company like Microsoft may miss goals while a smaller graphic design firm might achieve all of its annual targets consistently.

Leaders and managers are the linchpins in this approach. Effective managers stay focused and calm, ensuring their teams tackle problems with solutions-oriented approaches. Just like flowing water finds a way around a stone without disruption, businesses need managers who remain steady and adaptable to lead their companies toward predictable success.

Examples

• The rise of Little & Co. as a young company competing with more established players.
• A self-funded design firm consistently meeting targets while a wealthy tech giant struggles.
• Leaders who embody a calm, solution-driven mindset, guiding their teams effectively.

2. Companies go through the early struggle and fun stages before growth challenges emerge.

Every business journey begins with a daunting phase known as the early struggle, where survival is the top priority. During this stage, companies focus on answering two simple but critical questions: Is there a real demand for my product or service? And do we have enough cash to sustain operations?

The harsh reality is that most companies can’t survive this phase. To stay afloat, businesses are advised to secure three times the amount of capital they think they’ll need. For example, Pizza Hut faced this challenge while setting up new franchises in Ireland, miscalculating cash flow needs despite having identified a strong customer base.

Beyond early struggle comes fun—a stage marked by rapid growth and increasing sales. Companies often believe they’ve ‘made it’ during this phase, bringing in more revenue and expanding operations. However, businesses must resist the temptation to overspend or relax too much, as challenges still lie ahead.

Examples

• The early struggle of most businesses that fail due to insufficient cash and market clarity.
• Pizza Hut’s Irish franchises underestimated their cash needs.
• Fun stage: companies enjoying the rewards of growth but needing restraint to avoid mistakes.

3. Growth too fast leads to difficult waters called whitewater.

After the fun stage, businesses often hit a wall of operational chaos known as whitewater. At this stage, demand for products or services exceeds supply, leading to mistakes, cancellations, and disappointed customers. Rapid growth can often overwhelm systems that were initially manageable.

During whitewater, internal problems become visible as communication and operations begin to misalign. For example, a woodworker named Ian faced this with an unmanageable eruption of orders. His efforts to fulfill too many requests led to shoddy craftsmanship, frustrated clients, and declining profits.

Companies can address whitewater through better communication and team alignment. Ian, with the author’s guidance, improved operations by clearly defining processes between his sales and production teams. When sales teams understand operational capabilities, realistic commitments can be made, ensuring smoother growth.

Examples

• Companies struggling to maintain quality as orders outpace capacity.
• Ian’s woodwork business suffered from poor workflow during a surge in demand.
• Effective systems and communication gave Ian the tools to recover.

4. Even after reaching predictable success, businesses face risks of stagnation or collapse.

Reaching predictable success is an accomplishment, but success comes with new challenges. Companies risk falling into one of three traps: the treadmill, the big rut, or the death rattle.

The treadmill occurs when businesses become overly dependent on systems, losing their creative edge. Leaders disengage due to routine bureaucracy, as seen with Derek, a PR agency founder who left his company once it became rigid and uninspiring.

Next, the big rut appears when companies focus inward, neglecting their mission and customers. Organizations like a historic chocolate factory that clung to tradition saw this happen, as their inability to innovate left them vulnerable in a competitive market.

Finally, the death rattle signals a company’s end. Failure to adapt, like the music industry during the digital MP3 revolution, leads to extinction. Businesses must prioritize evolution to avoid these pitfalls.

Examples

• A PR founder, Derek, leaving his own firm due to repetitive, impersonal systems.
• A chocolate business stuck in tradition losing to adaptable competitors.
• Music companies failing against MP3 innovation and losing relevance.

5. Streamline decision-making and align employees for progression.

Transitioning from whitewater to predictable success requires businesses to eliminate complexity. Decision-making processes must be streamlined, empowering staff at all levels to make informed decisions without waiting for bureaucratic approval.

Hiring offers a good illustration. Bringing in a new head of marketing? Include marketing employees in the process and let them outline the practical requirements of the role. This approach ensures smoother team integration and faster decisions.

Alignment also plays a vital role. During growth, teams often shift focus, diluting original company values. Management should recalibrate by engaging employees in crafting a fresh, meaningful vision. Shared goals reduce conflict and increase accountability across departments.

Examples

• Streamlined decision-making when hiring by engaging existing team members.
• Empowering departments to align on shared goals.
• Preventing conflicts by crafting a refreshed organizational vision.

6. Build systems to support decision-making and risk-taking.

Predictable success requires robust systems for both efficiency and evolution. Businesses should integrate a two-pronged approach to address day-to-day decisions while keeping innovation alive.

First, adopt a structured decision-making method, like “data, debate, decide or defer,” which ensures clarity and consensus before action. Secondly, nurture innovation by institutionalizing risk-taking. Slight permissions for creative risks (within the company’s mission) spark progress without allowing harmful gambles.

Demonstrating this, one client of the author followed these systems to structure employee feedback and streamline decision-making processes. Similarly, innovation thrives when employees understand boundaries and are motivated to propose ideas transferrable to core operations.

Examples

• “Data, debate, decide or defer” simplifies decision-making effectively.
• A company promoting smart risk-taking aligned with mission values.
• Systems that encourage internal critique while limiting unnecessary risks.

7. Empower employees to understand the "why" behind processes.

Organizations thrive when employees are motivated not merely to follow processes but to understand their purpose. Explaining the rationale behind company systems empowers teams to improve workflow and fosters a problem-solving culture.

For instance, new hires gain confidence and a sense of ownership when processes are tied to meaningful objectives. When employees contribute and innovate within their system, they take pride in outcomes, like a coach praising effective plays rather than focusing on past errors.

Examples

• Employees aligning systems with purpose after leadership discussions.
• Clear explanations improve efficiency and morale during onboarding.
• Praise for robust decisions encourages innovation and collaboration.

8. Avoid micromanagement by creating leadership that listens.

Leaders must avoid becoming overly reliant on systems at the expense of engagement. Micromanagement drains creativity and relationships. CEOs should prioritize direct conversations with employees through open office hours or drop-in discussions.

This dynamic approach offers unexpected feedback opportunities, propelling new ideas. Leaders who embrace flexibility and openness often uncover solutions faster than relying heavily on administrative planning alone.

Examples

• A CEO implementing office drop-ins fostering creative discussions.
• Managers valuing feedback from unexpected sources.
• Companies discovering hidden solutions through collaborative culture.

9. Prevent decline with ongoing hiring and training investments.

Maintaining predictable success depends on the ability to recruit and train effectively. Companies stagnate when they treat employees as functional cogs instead of proactive contributors.

Focus on proactive conversations during recruitment to find not only the right skills but the right outlook. Ongoing training ensures employees grow alongside evolving company objectives. This focus reaffirms collective alignment and inspires continuous improvement.

Examples

• Training programs enhancing employee adaptability amid growth.
• Recruitment strategies prioritizing shared vision over strict qualifications.
• Employees excelling through alignment-driven guidance.

Takeaways

1. Maintain adaptable yet robust systems that streamline decision-making and empower staff.
2. Foster employee ownership by consistently aligning goals with the broader company vision.
3. Invest time with team members to spark innovation and prevent leadership detachment.