Provoke

Don’t follow trends; shape them. If you wait for a clear roadmap, the opportunity may already be gone.

1. Small Shifts Can Signify Big Changes

Even minor changes in consumer behavior can herald massive future trends. Ignore them at your peril.

Large corporations often overlook early signals of change because the signs appear too insignificant. The example of a media company in the late 2000s illustrates this well. When data analysts presented their finding that only 1.75% of their audience was moving to online platforms like YouTube, the executive dismissed it as an irrelevant anomaly. However, this behavior was an early indicator of a massive cultural shift toward digital media consumption that reshaped the entertainment industry altogether.

Organizations frequently miss early movers because they look at trends through their own internal lens. If leadership is not attuned to emerging behaviors that don't match their usual framework, they will fail to act. Worse, some spend too much time studying and reanalyzing data, preparing task forces, and generating reports, instead of testing an idea. When companies finally act, they are often too late and can only respond to fully-fledged trends with little ability to shape them.

Missing an emerging wave has consequences. Companies, like the media business in the example, risk obsolescence if they overlook even a small, persistent shift. Their ultimate fate may be reduced to winding down instead of innovating for the future.

Examples

• Media companies dismissed online video platforms like YouTube until it became a dominant force in entertainment.
• Companies like Kodak failed to notice shifting habits toward digital photography.
• Retailers who ignored e-commerce were eventually eclipsed by online giants like Amazon.

2. The “If” to “When” Landscape

Between potential possibilities and inevitabilities lies the sweet spot for action: phase change.

Trends start as potential "ifs." Will this behavior gain ground? But the moment they become inevitable—it’s no longer an "if" but a "when"—opportunities to lead or capitalize diminish drastically. The COVID-19 pandemic provides an example. Before the outbreak, there were musings about how a large-scale global crisis might affect demand for essentials. Once the pandemic hit, behaviors like panic-buying and an explosion in demand for bidets had become foregone conclusions, demonstrating phase change.

Organizations aiming to capitalize on trends must act during this transition. Timing is paramount; act too early and risk betting on the wrong possibility, or act too late and become merely reactive. The ability to evaluate whether an "if" is becoming a "when" requires assessing factors such as desirability, feasibility, and legality to consumers or industries.

This skill is akin to predicting the weather—you can't control future trends, but you can prepare during the right moment by recognizing indicators clearly. It's about seizing trends right before they go mainstream.

Examples

• Airbnb capitalized on the desire for unique, affordable lodging as traditional hotels became outdated for some customers.
• Uber leveraged its vision during the phase change from inefficient taxis to app-based rideshares, ensuring legal and technical feasibility.
• Online grocery delivery startups grew during a large-scale shift in shopping habits during COVID-19.

3. Strategic Thinking Drives Provocative Action

Strategic provocation helps organizations envision, adapt, and act in fast-changing landscapes.

Provoking change starts in a mindset of envisioning possibilities. Companies that consistently dedicate time to hypothesize future developments, imagine new consumer behaviors, and generate scenarios position themselves to act. Asking ambitious but specific questions, like "How will energy consumption evolve in the next fifteen years?" helps develop a sharper focus. Once those possible scenarios are laid out, tracking clear indicators—such as renewable energy rates in total electricity supply—allows businesses to monitor trends effectively.

Positioning actions comes next. Early strategic moves, even small ones, yield feedback and help test ideas before full-scale investments. These minimally disruptive, highly deliberate actions are often low-risk ways to provoke outcomes aligned with your envisioned scenarios.

By repeatedly testing and recalibrating, companies like Warby Parker have continually evolved. They turned assumptions about e-commerce on their head and learned how to dominate both the online and in-store shopping worlds by adapting to customer behavior even before the trends became widespread.

Examples

• Warby Parker pioneered online eyeglass sales, iteratively repositioning as customers pushed for innovation like at-home try-ons.
• Energy companies analyze shifts in demand toward renewable energy to guide investment choices.
• Retail brands like Macy's adapted to omnichannel strategies when e-commerce collided with traditional retail.

4. The Right Action is Minimally Viable, Not Excessively Bold

Big moves aren't always the answer—iterate with small steps over time.

Organizations often assume that bold action is required to make an impact. In reality, the most effective strategies frequently come from calculated, minimally viable moves. These deliberate small steps provide valuable learning opportunities while conserving resources. Testing the waters, responding to consumer feedback, and recalibrating offer sustainable ways to build success.

For instance, Warby Parker first operated entirely online but listened to consumer input, eventually introducing innovative solutions like free at-home trials. This small initial adjustment set the foundation for the major business decisions that followed, including opening brick-and-mortar stores.

Acting incrementally instead of overcommitting reduces unnecessary risks. Failure is often proposed as a learning experience, but it’s only useful when it happens on a smaller scale, not a catastrophic one.

Examples

• Warby Parker’s initial "try five at home" strategy paved the way for their offline expansions.
• Early online-only retailers cautiously transitioned by creating “pop-up” stores to test market demand.
• Tech startups commonly iterate minimum viable software updates based on user feedback.

5. You Don’t Need to Like a Trend to Benefit From It

Sometimes accepting shifts you dislike can be more lucrative than swimming against them.

Billy Durant hated cars but built a company that defined the automobile industry. Initially leading a horse and carriage business, Durant consolidated fragmented car companies to create General Motors simply because he saw a growing trend. He even directed it positively by instituting safety advancements.

The broader lesson? Resist the urge to stick to comfort zones or personal beliefs, as trends move regardless of feelings. Understanding and reacting quickly, even to unappealing trends, often enables individuals or companies to remain relevant.

Settling into resistance often sidelines businesses, creating the perfect situations for other competitors to fill emerging gaps.

Examples

• Durant leveraged fragmented industries for growth by forming General Motors despite personal distaste.
• Streaming apps began disrupting DVDs long before dominant players like Netflix formalized the category.
• The shift to electric vehicles gained steam while traditional automakers clung to exclusively producing gas cars.

6. Missed Trends Demand Adaptation

Adaptation involves painful but necessary organizational pivots toward emerging trends.

When Intel began losing its edge in memory chips, Andy Grove and Gordon Moore pivoted to manufacturing microprocessors. Although transitioning required layoffs and incurred steep losses in the short term, this shift enabled future global success, putting Intel at the forefront of the Silicon Valley ecosystem today.

Change is invariably difficult. Many organizations drag their feet or cling to traditional models even as warning signs abound. Bold adaptations aren't just last resorts; they often renew an organization's trajectory rather than fading into irrelevance.

Examples

• Intel shifted from memory chips into high-value microprocessors.
• Camera giant Fujifilm diversified into cosmetics when the photography market slumped.
• IBM transitioned from hardware to consulting after personal computing hardware became commodified.

Takeaways

1. Always act early when observing emerging signals instead of waiting for definite clarity.
2. Use minimally risky moves to gauge immediate market feedback on trends.
3. Even when trends seem misaligned with current values, look for ways to ride or adapt to their momentum.