Super Thinking

Worldly wisdom lies in understanding the world through a latticework of knowledge and applying mental models to make smarter decisions.

1. Super Thinking - A Guide to Mental Models

Mental models are powerful tools that explain how the world works. They’re frameworks used to understand problems and make decisions. The concept of "super thinking" takes these models and applies them to everyday life. Super models, unlike technical ones, are simple enough to be applied across multiple fields.

For example, the principle of "critical mass" from physics can describe emerging patterns beyond nuclear reactions. Consider how fax machines became valuable only after enough people owned them. Similarly, the ride-sharing industry used this idea to figure out how many drivers were needed for its services to be effective.

Super thinking encourages us to tackle complex situations systematically by borrowing proven models from various disciplines. By using these frameworks, we can cut through noise, make logical decisions, and gain clarity on life's messiest challenges.

Examples

• Fax machines demonstrated critical mass when enough people made the network useful.
• Uber and Lyft used critical mass to expand their driver and rider bases effectively.
• Businesses apply similar models to interpret market conditions and decide when to launch products.

2. Avoid Being Wrong by Eliminating Errors

Instead of focusing on being right, aim to avoid mistakes. This approach, known as inversion thinking, shifts our focus from achieving success to sidestepping failure. This aligns with the idea of avoiding "unforced errors" in tennis — mistakes brought on by oneself rather than an opponent.

Elon Musk exemplifies this with first-principles thinking. When experts told him that battery costs could not go below $600 per kilowatt-hour, he broke the problem down to its core elements. By sourcing raw materials directly and manufacturing his own cells, Musk proved the assumption incorrect.

Inversion also works with everyday decisions, like job hunting. Start with things you absolutely need or value most, and eliminate options that fail to meet those criteria. Building decisions bottom-up ensures you aren’t easily swayed by irrelevant factors or superficial advantages.

Examples

• Shift job searches by defining what you won’t compromise on like salary or commute distances.
• Elon Musk challenged conventional wisdom by starting with raw material costs to manufacture cheaper batteries.
• Avoiding unforced errors in tennis helps focus on the controllable aspects of the game.

3. Simplicity Wins with Ockham’s Razor

The simpler explanation is often the better one. Ockham’s razor helps eliminate unnecessary complications, encouraging us to think logically and not overanalyze situations. This model is applicable to everything from making life choices to figuring out probabilities.

When dating, applying filters for non-essential traits, like favorite ice cream flavor or hair color, reduces the pool of potential mates unnecessarily. Instead, focusing on more critical characteristics, such as shared values or humor, yields better results.

Psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman proved this with their thought experiments, where common logical traps lead people to prefer complex options that are, in reality, less likely to occur. Simplifying our assumptions helps us navigate outcomes more effectively.

Examples

• People seeking relationships often make it harder by focusing on trivial details.
• Tversky and Kahneman's studies exposed how humans favor unnecessarily complex scenarios.
• Applying simpler rules avoids falling prey to logical traps, like the conjunction fallacy.

4. Think Fairly Using the Veil of Ignorance

The veil of ignorance helps us look beyond our biases and consider the full spectrum of perspectives when making decisions. Conceived by philosopher John Rawls, this model involves designing rules for society without knowing your future position within it.

For example, a manager considering removing remote work policies might use this notion. Imagining themselves in the shoes of employees juggling personal needs encourages more compassionate decision-making.

This perspective also counteracts our tendency to make a "fundamental attribution error," where we blame others’ behaviors on character flaws while excusing our own missteps as circumstantial.

Examples

• Managers can use the veil of ignorance to account for diverse employee needs, like caregiving responsibilities.
• Drivers running red lights often misinterpret similar actions by others as reckless rather than urgent.
• Decisions affecting groups, such as policy changes, benefit from weighing perspectives equally.

5. Adapt to Change or Risk Being Left Behind

Survival depends on adaptability, as illustrated by the story of peppered moths during Britain’s Industrial Revolution. Changing environments favor flexible thinkers, whether in our careers, health, or beliefs.

An experimental mindset keeps us ahead in rapidly evolving societies. For instance, experimentation helps someone discover whether a vegan diet or Mediterranean diet suits them through practical trials rather than solely trusting existing hype.

Similarly, intellectual flexibility prevents stagnation. Once-solid ideas, such as smooth-skinned dinosaurs, have evolved with new evidence. Embracing learning ensures we adapt alongside changing knowledge.

Examples

• Scientists proven wrong over time understand how adaptability reshapes knowledge.
• Trying new hobbies or diets using trial-and-error methods often leads to better personal outcomes.
• Businesses staying nimble amidst market shifts survive where rigid companies don’t.

6. Beware the Limits of Anecdotal Evidence

Anecdotes, or one-off examples, don’t adequately represent broader realities. They persuade through familiarity but often mislead when misunderstood or misapplied. Anecdotal evidence should never replace rigorous statistical analysis.

Consider grandparents claiming a lifetime of smoking without ill effects. While these rare outliers exist, average statistics about smoking and lung cancer reveal much broader, evidence-based truths.

Another form of flawed reasoning involves conflating correlation with causation. For example, assuming flu vaccinations cause illness ignores other explanatory factors like concurrent seasonal ailments.

Examples

• Grandparents who lived long despite smoking don’t prove cigarettes are safe.
• Blaming flu vaccines for unrelated illnesses stems from misinterpreting overlaps in timing.
• Anecdotal restaurant reviews skew perceptions, focusing primarily on extremes.

7. Reciprocity Balances Social and Market Norms

When behaviors align with mutual benefit, reciprocity flourishes. This “I help you, you help me” approach strengthens social bonds. In contrast, market norms often emphasize measurable rewards over social obligation.

Dan Ariely’s daycare center example shows the shift from social to market norms disrupted cooperation. Parents fined for lateness rationalized paying off guilt instead of restoring punctuality — eventually eroding both systems.

Recognizing boundaries between social kindness and transactional exchanges helps nurture long-term goodwill rather than strained expectations.

Examples

• Waiters boosting tips via thoughtful gestures illustrate positive reciprocity.
• Parents reacting to fines for lateness forego guilt-driven improvement.
• Small gifts create disproportionate goodwill among recipients versus standard exchanges.

8. Use Inversion Thinking to Simplify Big Decisions

We often begin decisions by listing positives or opportunities rather than identifying problems outright. Inversion flips this — by removing what we don’t want. This helps eliminate unhelpful assumptions about what's essential.

This approach works especially well in thinking through major life changes like career planning by starting from a bottom-up process of removing undesirable candidates. Elon Musk also altered the car industry by questioning how pricing assumptions limited battery advancements until broken down scientifically.

Examples

• Eliminating incompatible opportunities narrows meaningful personal selections effectively.
• Musk’s "reductionist" innovation lead Tesla past otherwise narrow infrastructural limits.
• Early problem-solving successes demand knowing which premature pursuits stall follow-ups.

9. Frame Perspectives Carefully to Reflect True Intentions

The way we perceive contexts changes outcomes entirely; socially-defined boundaries differ against expected transactional efficiency. Modern flexibility rests finely between acceptance balancing personal incentives mutually-forgivable lapses beyond enterprising-expensive reparations.

Framing markets wrong altogether guides societal misunderstandings arising everyday inconsistency ensuring clarity forefront final contextual appeals beyond frequent-refocusing hypothetical disadvantages difficult&unexplained proven success presents successful holistic meaningful.

Takeaways

1. Strive for logical clarity by applying mental models like Ockham's razor to real-life decisions.
2. Value adaptability as a lifelong skill by experimenting actively with new approaches.
3. Focus on removing negative influences or options through inversion rather than solely seeking positives.