The Bestseller Code Summary

“What really makes a bestseller? Is it great storytelling, emotional highs, or just the luck of being picked up by the right audience at the right time? The Bestseller Code reveals the patterns behind what makes books soar to the top.”

1. Popularity Doesn’t Equal Quality

Not all bestsellers are celebrated for their literary prowess. Sometimes, popular novels receive dismal reviews but still capture the public’s imagination. Literary critics often discount heavyweights like E. L. James’s Fifty Shades of Grey and Dan Brown’s The Da Vinci Code due to perceived shallow storytelling or poorly constructed characters. Yet these books sell millions of copies and remain cultural phenomena.

The success of these kinds of books shows how difficult it is to predict what will appeal to readers. Despite confusion over the quality-popularity paradox, publishers strive to identify the rare novels that can captivate large audiences. Out of 50,000 fiction titles published annually in the U.S., only about 200 make it to The New York Times best-seller list.

Predicting bestsellers is akin to predicting the weather a year in advance. However, the authors assert that by identifying patterns in successful books, such as themes or tone, publishers can better understand what leads to widespread approval.

Examples

• The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo had mixed reviews but resonated deeply with readers.
• Despite tepid critical receptions, The Da Vinci Code achieved record-breaking sales.
• Readers often skip Pulitzer-winning classics but line up for mass-market paperbacks.

2. An Algorithm Revolutionizes Bestseller Prediction

In 2010, researchers began tackling the nearly impossible publishing challenge—what makes a book a bestseller? Their breakthroughs led to the development of the "bestseller-ometer," an algorithm designed to analyze various features of a book and predict its success.

Instead of relying on subjective judgments, this algorithm evaluates specific elements of novels without bias toward author reputation or marketing strategies. For example, it rated Inferno by Dan Brown as 95.7% likely to succeed and Michael Connelly's The Lincoln Lawyer at 99.2%. Both predictions bore out when these books topped charts.

Despite its predictive success rate of 80-90%, the algorithm isn’t flawless. Kathryn Stockett’s The Help, for instance, received a modest 50% success prediction but became a bestseller. Still, such a tool gives publishers a powerful way to minimize risks while making big investments in new authors.

Examples

• Helped assess J.K. Rowling’s underestimated potential when Harry Potter was first submitted.
• Successfully predicted success for Dave Eggers's The Circle, despite lukewarm critical reviews.
• Provided a more objective approach for sifting through thousands of manuscripts.

3. The Topic Significantly Impacts Popularity

A book’s subject matter often determines whether it appeals to readers. Interestingly, a book’s topic matters more than its genre. Crime and love emerge as universal favorites, appearing in various forms across genres.

For example, Jodi Picoult’s House Rules, which combines legal drama, family relationships, and crime, became a bestseller partially due to its topical ingredients. The algorithm’s "topic modeling" system analyzes the context in which words appear. For instance, the word “body” could relate to medical crime in one book and romance in another.

Surprisingly, sex—a timeless seller for music and movies—has minimal appeal to novel readers. Analyzed bestsellers show sex-related topics appearing only about 0.0009% of the time, proving it’s not central to success.

Examples

• Crime consistently ranks as the most successful topic in fiction.
• Picoult’s House Rules benefited from combining family dynamics with legal and crime themes.
• Despite its notoriety, the sexual themes in Fifty Shades of Grey didn’t drive its popularity—emotional connection did.

4. Emotional Arcs Draw Readers In

Good writing isn’t always why people read; it’s the emotional plot that keeps them hooked. Books that elicit a roller-coaster of emotions are far more likely to become hits, evidenced by chart staples like The Da Vinci Code and Fifty Shades of Grey.

Readers often mirror a story’s emotional highs and lows. When characters in gripping novels face tension, joy, and despair, readers join that ride. For instance, The Da Vinci Code’s pattern of tension interspersed with relief reflects emotional beats that chart as a rhythmic, marketable pattern.

Both The Da Vinci Code and Fifty Shades of Grey feature exceptionally dynamic emotional graphs—stories that alternate heavily between light and dark moments.

Examples

• The emotional highs in The Da Vinci Code align with its fast-paced narrative.
• Readers enjoy uncomplicated and relatable romance arcs in Fifty Shades of Grey.
• Dramatic challenges in Gone Girl keep readers emotionally invested.

5. Simplicity Beats Complexity in Writing Style

While poetic, ornate fiction wins critical acclaim, it rarely tops commercial bestsellers. Bestselling novels often employ clear, simple prose. Stripped-back styles allow stories to move quickly and appeal to a broad readership.

The writing analysis tool in the bestseller-ometer highlights this trend. For example, it reveals bestsellers frequently use straightforward sentence structures. They adopt words like "do" more often and reserve adjectives or complex language sparingly.

Simplicity coupled with a strong voice enables books like The Cuckoo’s Calling—J.K. Rowling’s pseudonymous crime novel—to succeed. While its unassuming style avoids flourish, its straightforward delivery appeals broadly.

Examples

• Words like “the” and “do” appear frequently in widely-read books.
• Rowling's pseudonym The Cuckoo’s Calling showcased clarity in execution.
• The Lincoln Lawyer’s functional writing style directly supports its thrilling storytelling.

6. Female Authors Often Outrank in Style

An unexpected discovery from the algorithm highlighted disparities between male and female authors, with women typically outranking their male peers in writing style. Interestingly, this trend didn’t apply to categories like plot or themes.

Female authors appear particularly adept at creating simple, engaging prose. Many successful female writers credit journalism backgrounds with helping hone a reader-friendly approach. For instance, journalist-turned-author Terry McMillan’s direct and clear style became a hallmark of her work.

Additionally, authors like James Patterson mimic this journalist mindset. His background in advertising helps him deliver appealing stories accessible to wide audiences.

Examples

• Female debuts outperformed male debuts in stylistic rankings.
• James Patterson’s romances uniquely mirrored trends found in female authorship.
• Terry McMillan’s journalistic precision reflects in her mainstream success.

7. Strong Characters Make Better Titles

Best-selling books often have compelling leads, evidenced by the rise in titles based on characters. Modern titles evoke mystery, such as Gone Girl or The Girl on the Train, instead of exclusively naming the lead (e.g., Anna Karenina).

The algorithm shows that featuring main characters in titles—directly or obliquely—improves resonance. Furthermore, words like “the” lend authority. For example, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo" is stronger than "A Girl with Tattoos."

Creating dynamic, action-driven characters also keeps readers engaged. Character strength is gauged through verbs like “need,” which propel a story's pace.

Examples

• Gone Girl thrives on its enigmatic title and propulsive lead characters.
• Strong verbs such as "need" appear frequently in Gillian Flynn’s work.
• Traditional name-based titles, like Anna Karenina, are now less frequent.

8. Titles and First Sentences Set The Tone

First impressions matter. Titles spark curiosity, while opening sentences often cement a reader’s initial interest in a story. Authors know these elements must be compelling yet concise.

For example, The Circle topped predictions due to its evocative title and strong narrative hook. Successful openers quickly establish key topics or thematic concerns, drawing readers deeper into the story.

The algorithm highlights how first lines and titles act as decisive launchpads for widespread interest.

Examples

• The Circle’s straightforward structure earned it a 100% prediction score.
• Gillian Flynn mastered intrigue with compelling opens in Gone Girl.
• Dan Brown books routinely deliver gripping opening sentences.

9. New Authors Benefit From Pattern Recognition

While well-established names dominate bestseller spots, the algorithm serves as a promising tool for new writers. By signaling exactly what elements—plot arcs, word choice, style—align with reader tastes, emerging authors gain clearer feedback for improvement.

Writers previously rejected, like J.K. Rowling, underscore how success rates might shift with such predictive tools available. Beyond aiding publishers, this technology serves a democratizing and educational purpose.

Examples

• Algorithms aid aspiring crime writers using genre insights.
• J.K. Rowling’s rejected Harry Potter might’ve fared better earlier.
• Debuts feature prominently among top algorithm picks.

Takeaways

1. When crafting a manuscript, focus on relatable emotions, escalating tension, and a clear resolution to keep readers engaged.
2. Keep sentences concise, reduce unnecessary adjectives, and study bestsellers to refine how characters propel stories forward.
3. Use evocative titles and strong opening sentences to capture attention immediately, as these are essential entry points for readers.