The Prepared Leader

Prepared leaders don't just survive crises, they use them as catalysts to transform and thrive.

1. Evolution Made Humans Short-Sighted About Risks

Human evolution has programmed us to focus on immediate dangers while overlooking future threats. This tendency, rooted in survival instincts, has hindered our ability to prepare for potential crises. Cognitive biases such as probability neglect lead us to dismiss risks until they directly impact us.

For example, despite decades of warnings from scientists about pandemics, most of the world was caught flat-footed by COVID-19. Economic losses were catastrophic, with $3.7 trillion in labor income gone in 2020 alone. Early action could have saved countless lives and resources.

Cognitive biases don’t doom us to failure, though. Once we identify these mental blind spots, we can take thoughtful steps to mitigate them. Preparedness requires acting based on the data, even if it feels counterintuitive.

Examples

• During COVID-19, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver suspended the season early, basing his decision on expert advice.
• Recognizing probability neglect helped Mercury Systems leaders prepare for supply chain disruptions.
• Organizations that acknowledged and course-corrected their bias managed to adapt faster during the crisis.

2. Leadership Means Early Action, Not Waiting

Leaders who detect and act on early signals avoid greater catastrophes. Detecting crises early involves tuning into patterns, looking beyond surface-level data, and interpreting potential warning signs.

Adam Silver demonstrated this when he reached out to health experts to evaluate the pandemic's scope. He created the NBA’s COVID-19 "bubble," an innovative solution that allowed games to resume safely, yielding $1.5 billion in revenue.

Taking swift, informed action isn’t easy—it demands stepping out of comfort zones and sometimes making unpopular decisions. But leaders who act decisively during early warning phases often end up steering their organizations to safety.

Examples

• Adam Silver’s bold suspension of the NBA illustrated early risk mitigation.
• Japan’s earthquake-warning systems save lives by detecting seismic activity early.
• Business leaders who embraced remote work early during COVID-19 saw fewer disruptions.

3. Prepared Leaders Focus on People, Planet, and Profit

The triple bottom line of people, planet, and profit has become the foundation of modern leadership. Yet, without adding preparedness as a priority, leaders risk losing all three.

Businesses like JD Wetherspoon failed to prioritize workers during COVID-19, leading to backlash and diminished trust. In stark contrast, companies like Mercury Systems froze layoffs and took extra measures to protect employees, winning loyalty and performance gains.

These cases emphasize that the welfare of people and the environment must not take a backseat in a crisis—alongside profits, they form the pillars of meaningful recovery and long-term success.

Examples

• JD Wetherspoon saw reputation damage after sidelining employee concerns.
• Mercury Systems’ $1 million employee relief fund boosted morale and trust.
• Organizations that adapted environmentally safer practices post-crisis strengthened public goodwill.

4. Crises Follow Five Manageable Phases

Prepared leadership involves responding to crises through five phases: Early Warning, Preparation, Damage Control, Recovery, and Reflection. Each stage demands specific actions and teamwork to limit losses and pivot toward opportunities.

For instance, damage containment can prevent a crisis from spiraling into an organizational collapse. Leaders must evaluate risks swiftly, communicate effectively, and calm anxieties, as delay often exacerbates the problem.

Equally vital is learning from every crisis. By studying past mistakes, businesses can build long-term resilience, preventing similar issues from recurring and growing stronger overall.

Examples

• Tim Martin’s mishandling of employee pay at JD Wetherspoon worsened company losses.
• Reflective practices post-2008 recession allowed financial firms to implement regulatory safeguards.
• NASA’s investigation following the Challenger disaster improved safety for future missions.

5. Diverse Perspectives Strengthen Crisis Response

Diverse teams break cognitive echo chambers. They contribute different ideas, skills, and approaches that drive better decisions under pressure.

Mark Aslett at Mercury Systems formed a diverse crisis response team that analyzed complex data and created aligned actions. This approach led to effective supply chain adjustments, avoiding major financial setbacks.

Inclusion ensures all angles are considered, allowing businesses to detect blind spots and avoid short-sighted responses during emergencies.

Examples

• Mercury Systems used a varied team to track COVID-19 and prepare early.
• Diverse inputs improved CSR initiatives post-Hurricane Katrina for rebuilding communities.
• Companies that failed to involve multiple viewpoints during economic crises often struggled longer.

6. Trust and Communication Build Strong Teams

Effective communication fosters transparency and trust during chaos. Leaders must remain empathetic, accessible, and clear in conveying expectations.

Organizations that build communication channels, such as live Q&A sessions, minimize employee confusion and promote resilience. Mark Aslett’s use of open communication via video facilitated smoother company-wide adjustments and built confidence.

Trusting teams to make quick decisions also permits agility, critical during rapidly changing situations.

Examples

• Live video across Mercury Systems allowed better collaboration despite distance.
• Amazon temporarily removed non-essential tasks for employees to prioritize health during COVID-19.
• Businesses with rigid, hierarchical structures saw slower responses in emergencies.

7. Resilience Enhances Recovery Post-Crisis

Resilient teams bounce back faster and emerge stronger. Leaders nurture resilience by empowering people to identify actionable solutions, experiment without fear, and keep moving forward despite setbacks.

A business with resilience often adapts better after a crisis, finding innovative paths to recover and grow. Leaders who promote confidence and maintain flexible systems create such an atmosphere.

Examples

• Teams allowed to experiment developed adaptive strategies during the pandemic.
• Communities rebuilt Puerto Rico’s infrastructure post-Hurricane Maria using collaboration.
• Toyota’s robust supply systems allowed speedy recovery after the 2011 tsunami.

8. Creativity Can Prevent Bigger Collapses

Crises require problem-solving on the fly. Creativity often unlocks solutions that traditional approaches overlook.

The NBA’s COVID bubble and Mercury Systems’ supply chain adjustments were born of creative brainstorming. Leaders who foster out-of-the-box thinking cultivate an organizational culture that thrives on solving complex challenges.

Organizational creativity requires regular brainstorming sessions and training even during stable times.

Examples

• The NBA created a self-contained “bubble,” ensuring games could resume.
• Industries like healthcare pivoted creatively with telemedicine during the pandemic.
• Businesses offering innovative subscriptions (e.g., meal kits) thrived in lockdown.

9. Technology is a Double-Edged Sword

Technology can be a game-changer, providing tools for communication, analysis, and planning. However, it also requires skillful management to prevent misuse or distraction.

Companies with global connections should leverage technology to access diverse expertise and build “mega communities” for crises with a global reach. However, poorly managed tech—like insensitive comments posted online—can harm reputations irreparably.

Balanced, thoughtful use of tech enhances recovery without creating new challenges.

Examples

• Mercury Systems’ use of live tools exemplified streamlined communication.
• Remote work technologies kept industries afloat during worldwide lockdowns.
• CrossFit’s CEO misused social media, leading to his downfall.

Takeaways

1. Build a culture of inclusion and transparency to lay a foundation for crisis resilience.
2. Regularly run “what if” scenarios to improve preparedness for future risks.
3. Encourage creativity and experimentation as a daily business practice, not just in emergencies.