In "The Robots Are Coming!", Andrés Oppenheimer explores the dramatic impact that automation and artificial intelligence are poised to have on the global economy and job market in the coming decades. Drawing on extensive research and interviews with experts, Oppenheimer paints a vivid picture of how robots, algorithms, and other automated technologies are set to transform or eliminate jobs across a wide range of industries.
The book takes its cue from a headline-grabbing 2013 study by Oxford University economists Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, which predicted that up to 47 percent of current jobs in the US could be eliminated by 2033 due to automation. Oppenheimer examines how this automation revolution is likely to play out across nine major sectors of the economy: manufacturing, transportation, service, law, banking, healthcare, journalism, education, and entertainment.
While the outlook may seem bleak for many current workers, Oppenheimer also highlights the new opportunities that will emerge and how humans can adapt to thrive alongside machines in the automated economy of the future. This balanced exploration provides a comprehensive overview of one of the most important economic and societal shifts on the horizon.
The Rise of Industrial Robots
For decades, futurists have been predicting that robots would take over factory floors and eliminate manufacturing jobs. While that revolution has been slow to materialize, Oppenheimer argues that we are now on the cusp of seeing those predictions come true on a massive scale.
The Slow But Steady March of Automation
Industrial robots first emerged in the 1960s, but their adoption has been gradual. Even as manufacturing shifted from Western countries to places like China with cheaper labor, human workers still dominated factory floors for many years. However, that is now changing rapidly as robots become more advanced and cost-effective.
China Leads the Robotic Revolution
Somewhat ironically, China - long seen as a bastion of low-cost human labor - is now at the forefront of adopting industrial robots:
- In 2014, China had 189,000 industrial robots. By 2019, that number was projected to reach 726,000.
- In 2017, a cellphone factory in Dongguan replaced 590 of its 650 workers with robots, with the goal of eventually reaching zero human workers.
- China's "Made in China 2025" economic plan explicitly aims to achieve a "robotic revolution" in manufacturing.
Factors Driving Automation
Oppenheimer identifies four key factors fueling the rise of industrial robots:
- Falling costs of robotic technology
- Rising labor costs in China and other manufacturing hubs
- Superior productivity of robots (faster, more precise, 24/7 operation)
- Potential for Western companies to "reshore" manufacturing as robots eliminate the labor cost advantage of offshoring
The Human Toll
As robots take over factory floors, millions of manufacturing jobs are likely to disappear:
- The World Bank estimates 77% of jobs in China are threatened by automation, many in manufacturing.
- Similar job losses are expected in other manufacturing-heavy economies.
While new jobs will be created to design, build, and maintain robots, they will be far fewer in number than the jobs eliminated. The manufacturing sector appears poised for a dramatic transformation that will displace huge numbers of workers in the coming years.
Self-Driving Vehicles Transform Transportation
Just as robots are set to take over factory floors, autonomous vehicles are poised to eliminate millions of driving jobs in the transportation and logistics sectors. Oppenheimer explores how rapidly advancing self-driving technology will reshape trucking, taxis, delivery services, and even flying vehicles.
The Rise of Self-Driving Trucks
Long-haul trucking is likely to be one of the first and hardest-hit areas:
- By 2025, one-third of American trucks could be automated.
- Companies like Otto (acquired by Uber for $700 million) are investing heavily in the technology.
- 3.5 million truck driving jobs in the US are at risk.
Initially, self-driving trucks will be limited to highways, with human drivers handling local roads. But eventually, the entire journey is likely to be automated.
Taxis and Ride-Sharing Services
Uber, Lyft, and traditional taxi services are also racing to develop autonomous vehicles:
- Uber poached nearly an entire robotics department from Carnegie Mellon University to work on self-driving cars.
- Lyft invested $500 million in autonomous vehicle technology.
- Self-driving taxis are already being tested in some cities.
Package and Food Delivery
Delivery drivers are another group facing obsolescence:
- Domino's Pizza is trialing self-driving food delivery cars.
- Amazon, FedEx, UPS, and DHL are all developing delivery drones.
- Autonomous ground-based delivery robots are also in development.
Flying Taxis on the Horizon
While it may sound like science fiction, autonomous flying taxis are already in limited operation:
- Chinese company Ehang has built automated flying taxis.
- Several are already operating in Dubai.
Rapid Technological Progress
The pace of advancement in self-driving technology is accelerating:
- From 2015 to 2016, the rate at which human engineers needed to override autonomous vehicles on test drives fell from 0.5% to 0.2%.
- Many experts predict fully autonomous vehicles will be commonplace by the mid-2020s.
As with manufacturing, the transportation sector is likely to see massive job losses as these technologies mature and proliferate in the coming years. Millions of driving jobs across multiple industries are at risk of elimination.
Automation Reshapes Retail and Restaurants
The rise of e-commerce and automated technologies is already having a dramatic impact on brick-and-mortar retail stores and restaurants. Oppenheimer explores how these trends are eliminating service sector jobs and transforming the consumer experience.
The Amazon Effect
Online retail giant Amazon has been decimating traditional stores:
- In early 2017 alone, major US retailers closed hundreds of locations (e.g. 552 Radio Shack stores, 138 JCPenney stores, 68 Macy's stores).
- Each closure results in significant job losses (e.g. 10,100 workers laid off from those 68 Macy's stores).
- An estimated 12 million US retail jobs are threatened by Amazon's rise.
Fewer Jobs in E-Commerce
While Amazon is creating some jobs, they are far fewer than those lost in traditional retail:
- Amazon needs far fewer low-level employees than brick-and-mortar competitors.
- Many Amazon warehouse jobs may soon be replaced by robots.
- Automated delivery drones will further reduce human labor needs.
Automation in Surviving Stores
Even stores that survive the e-commerce onslaught are adopting labor-saving technologies:
- Self-checkout systems are replacing human cashiers in many stores.
- Lowe's has developed LoweBots - autonomous robots that can help customers and track inventory.
Restaurants Embrace Automation
The food service industry is also rapidly adopting automated technologies:
- Touch-screen ordering tablets are replacing counter staff and waiters at chains like McDonald's and Pizza Hut.
- Food preparation robots are already in use at some restaurants, like Zume Pizza.
- Automated systems can cut restaurant labor costs in half.
Massive Job Losses Ahead
The scale of potential job losses in the service sector is staggering:
- 3.6 million US fast-food jobs alone could be eliminated by automation.
- Millions more retail jobs are likely to disappear.
While some new jobs will be created to develop and maintain automated systems, they will be far fewer than those lost. The service sector, long a refuge for low-skilled workers, appears headed for a dramatic transformation that will eliminate huge numbers of jobs.
Legal Profession Faces Automation Challenge
While lower-skilled jobs are often seen as most vulnerable to automation, Oppenheimer argues that even high-end professions like law are at risk. Artificial intelligence and algorithmic software are increasingly capable of handling many routine legal tasks.
Automating Routine Legal Work
Many common legal tasks are formulaic and ripe for automation:
- Online platforms like RocketLawyer, LegalZoom, and LawDepot can automatically generate basic legal documents like contracts, rental agreements, and wills.
- These systems use algorithms to adapt boilerplate documents based on client inputs.
AI Lawyers Emerge
More sophisticated legal work is also being automated:
- Law firm BakerHostetler "hired" an AI lawyer named Ross, powered by IBM's Watson.
- Ross can rapidly analyze thousands of legal documents to support case research.
Significant Job Losses Expected
The legal profession is likely to see major workforce reductions:
- 31,000 law-related jobs have already been lost in the UK.
- Another 114,000 UK legal jobs are expected to disappear in the next two decades.
- In the US, 2 out of 3 lawyers could lose their jobs or see them radically changed within 15 years.
Changing Nature of Legal Work
Rather than being eliminated entirely, many legal jobs will be transformed:
- Instead of writing documents from scratch, lawyers may shift to proofreading and editing AI-generated documents.
- Higher-level strategy and client counseling will remain important human roles.
Democratizing Legal Services
There is a potential upside for consumers as legal services become automated:
- Costs for basic legal work like drafting contracts will likely fall dramatically.
- This could make legal services accessible to many more people.
While the most sophisticated legal work will still require human lawyers, a large portion of the legal profession appears vulnerable to automation in the coming years. This could reshape the industry and significantly reduce the number of legal jobs available.
Banking Goes Digital and Algorithmic
The banking and finance industries are increasingly moving online and adopting powerful algorithms to replace human workers. Oppenheimer explores how this shift is eliminating the need for physical bank branches and human financial analysts.
The Decline of Physical Banks
As society becomes increasingly cashless, the need for physical bank locations is diminishing:
- More transactions are conducted electronically via credit cards and digital payments.
- This reduces the need for physical locations to handle cash.
- Many banks are closing branches and shifting to online-only models.
The Rise of Virtual Banks
Entirely online banks are growing in popularity:
- Companies like Schwab.com and Robinhood.com operate without physical branches.
- These virtual banks are largely run by automated systems and algorithms.
Massive Job Losses Expected
The shift to online, automated banking is likely to eliminate huge numbers of jobs:
- Up to 50% of bank branches and their employees could disappear within a decade in developed countries.
- 30-50% of all financial sector workers could be replaced by algorithms in the next 10 years.
Investment Banks Embrace Algorithms
Even high-end investment banks are automating many functions:
- JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs are putting more services online.
- Human financial analysts are being replaced by algorithms.
- JPMorgan Chase now employs more software engineers (9,000) than Facebook or Twitter.
Superhuman Capabilities
Banking algorithms can perform tasks far beyond human capabilities:
- They can make complex financial calculations and projections in seconds that would take human analysts hundreds of hours.
- This superior speed and accuracy makes them irresistible to banks seeking to cut costs and improve performance.
While some human bankers and financial advisors will still be needed, especially for high-net-worth clients, huge swaths of the banking industry appear vulnerable to automation. The coming years are likely to see a dramatic reshaping of the financial sector workforce.
Healthcare Transformed by AI and Robotics
The healthcare industry is on the cusp of a technological revolution that will transform how we monitor our health, diagnose illnesses, and treat diseases. Oppenheimer explores how AI, sensors, and robotic systems are set to take over many functions currently performed by human healthcare workers.
AI-Powered Health Monitoring
Continuous health tracking will become the norm:
- Smartwatches, phones, and wearable devices will constantly monitor vital signs.
- Implantable microchips may track even more health data.
- AI systems will analyze this data to detect potential health issues early.
Automated Diagnosis
Many diagnostic tasks will be handled by AI:
- Virtual assistants like Alexa will answer basic health questions.
- Smartphone apps can already diagnose some conditions (e.g. skin cancer).
- Supercomputers like IBM's Watson are being used for complex medical diagnoses.
Robotic Surgery and Treatment
Robots are increasingly capable of performing medical procedures:
- Mazor Robotics has developed an automated system that has performed 25,000 spinal surgeries.
- Microbot Medical is creating nano-scale robots that can travel through blood vessels to clear blockages and repair damage.
Transforming the Role of Doctors
While 80% of current doctor tasks could be automated, physicians will still play crucial roles:
- Acting as human intermediaries between patients and AI diagnostic systems.
- Counseling patients and explaining AI-generated diagnoses and treatment plans.
- Focusing on the human elements of care that machines can't replicate.
New Healthcare Support Roles
New jobs will emerge to support automated healthcare systems:
- Technicians to maintain and repair medical robots and AI systems.
- Specialists to manage and interpret the massive amounts of health data generated.
While automation will eliminate or transform many current healthcare jobs, it also has the potential to dramatically improve health outcomes and make advanced care more widely accessible. The challenge will be managing the transition and ensuring human medical professionals adapt to work alongside machines effectively.
Journalism Evolves in the Age of AI
While some aspects of journalism are being automated, Oppenheimer argues that the profession is likely to evolve rather than disappear entirely. AI systems will take over more routine reporting tasks, freeing human journalists to focus on higher-level work.
AI Tackles Routine Reporting
Artificial intelligence is already writing basic news stories:
- The Washington Post used an AI system called Heliograf to cover 500 local election races in 2016.
- Heliograf filled in templates with data to generate standardized reports on election results.
Freeing Journalists for More Complex Work
As AI handles routine stories, human journalists can focus on more challenging work:
- In-depth investigative reporting
- Long-form feature stories
- Analytical articles and opinion pieces
- Tasks requiring human judgment and creativity
AI-Augmented Investigation
Advanced AI systems will enhance journalists' investigative capabilities:
- The International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) used a custom database to analyze the massive Panama Papers leak.
- The ICIJ is developing an AI system to trace connections between individuals and organizations in large datasets.
The Continued Need for Human Judgment
While AI can process vast amounts of data, human journalists will still be crucial for:
- Determining which stories are newsworthy
- Providing context and analysis
- Making ethical judgments about reporting
- Conducting interviews and building source relationships
New Roles in Data-Driven Journalism
New jobs are likely to emerge at the intersection of journalism and data science:
- Data journalists who can work with large datasets and AI tools
- Visualization specialists to present complex information graphically
- AI trainers to help develop and refine news-writing algorithms
Rather than replacing journalists entirely, automation is likely to reshape the profession. Routine reporting may be largely automated, but there will still be strong demand for skilled human journalists to handle more complex and nuanced storytelling.
Education Adapts to the Age of AI
The education sector will need to evolve dramatically to prepare students for the automated economy of the future. At the same time, educational methods themselves are likely to be transformed by AI and robotics. Oppenheimer explores how these twin forces will reshape teaching and learning.
Robot Teachers Emerge
AI-powered teaching assistants are already a reality:
- "Professor Einstein" is a small humanoid robot that can answer science questions and teach games.
- More sophisticated AI tutors are in development that can provide personalized instruction.
Shifting Focus of Human Teachers
As AI systems take over knowledge transmission, human teachers will focus more on:
- Cultivating "soft skills" like curiosity, initiative, and empathy
- Developing students' social and emotional intelligence
- Fostering creativity and critical thinking
- Providing mentorship and guidance
Personalized Learning at Scale
AI will enable truly personalized education for each student:
- Adaptive learning systems will adjust to each student's pace and learning style.
- Virtual and augmented reality will provide immersive learning experiences.
- Students will be able to get instant answers and explanations 24/7 from AI tutors.
Preparing for a Changing Job Market
Education systems will need to evolve to prepare students for the automated economy:
- Greater emphasis on STEM fields and computer science
- Focus on uniquely human skills that are harder to automate
- Teaching adaptability and lifelong learning skills
New Roles in Education
While some teaching jobs may be eliminated, new roles are likely to emerge:
- AI training specialists to develop and refine educational algorithms
- Virtual reality content creators for immersive learning experiences
- Data analysts to interpret student performance data and optimize learning
The education sector faces the dual challenge of adapting its methods to leverage AI while also preparing students for a job market increasingly dominated by automation. Success on both fronts will be crucial for societies to thrive in the coming decades.
Entertainment and Culture Industries Flourish
As automation eliminates jobs in many sectors, Oppenheimer argues that the entertainment and culture industries are likely to grow in importance. With more free time and a potential universal basic income, people may increasingly turn to music, film, games, and other forms of entertainment.
Virtual Reality Revolution
VR technology is advancing rapidly and attracting major investment:
- Facebook acquired Oculus VR for $2 billion in 2014.
- Bank of America declared VR headsets could become "the one device to disrupt and rule the world of technology."
- Immersive VR games and experiences are likely to become a major form of entertainment.
More Leisure Time Drives Demand
As automation reduces work hours or eliminates jobs entirely:
- People will have more free time to consume entertainment and cultural products.
- A universal basic income could provide financial support for this lifestyle.
Job Growth in Creative Fields
The entertainment and culture sectors already employ millions:
- 29.5 million people work in these industries globally.
- This exceeds total employment in the US, European, and Japanese auto industries combined.
Uniquely Human Creativity
Creative jobs are among the most difficult to automate:
- Writing, composing music, and creating visual art still require human creativity.
- While AI can assist in creative processes, generating truly original ideas remains a human domain.
New Forms of Interactive Entertainment
Emerging technologies will create new entertainment possibilities:
- Interactive storytelling that adapts to user choices
- AI-generated personalized content
- Augmented reality games that blend the physical and digital worlds
While many traditional jobs disappear, the entertainment and culture industries may provide new opportunities for human creativity to flourish. These sectors could become increasingly important both economically and socially in an automated world.
Adapting to the Automated Future
Throughout the book, Oppenheimer emphasizes that while automation will eliminate many current jobs, it will also create new opportunities. Successfully navigating this transition will require proactive efforts by individuals, businesses, and governments.
Focus on Uniquely Human Skills
To remain employable, workers should cultivate skills that are difficult to automate:
- Creativity and original thinking
- Emotional intelligence and empathy
- Complex problem-solving and strategy
- Adaptability and lifelong learning
Embrace Human-Machine Collaboration
Rather than competing with AI, many workers will need to learn to work alongside it:
- Understanding how to leverage AI tools to enhance productivity
- Providing the human touch in automated systems (e.g. robot-assisted surgery)
- Interpreting and acting on insights generated by AI systems
Continuous Learning and Retraining
As the job market evolves rapidly, ongoing education will be crucial:
- Workers may need to retrain multiple times throughout their careers
- Governments and businesses should invest in retraining programs
- Online learning platforms can provide flexible, accessible education
Rethinking Social Safety Nets
New policies may be needed to support workers displaced by automation:
- Universal basic income proposals are gaining traction in some countries
- Expanded unemployment benefits and job transition assistance
- Potential for shorter work weeks to spread available jobs among more people
Ethical Considerations
The shift to an automated economy raises important ethical questions:
- How to ensure the benefits of automation are broadly shared
- Maintaining human agency and privacy in a world of pervasive AI
- Defining the appropriate boundaries between human and machine decision-making
While the challenges posed by automation are significant, Oppenheimer maintains an ultimately optimistic view. By proactively adapting our skills, policies, and mindsets, we can harness the power of automation to create a more prosperous and fulfilling future for humanity.
Conclusion
In "The Robots Are Coming!", Andrés Oppenheimer provides a comprehensive and thought-provoking exploration of how automation is set to transform the global economy in the coming decades. Through his examination of nine key industries, several overarching themes emerge:
The pace of automation is accelerating across virtually all sectors of the economy.
While some jobs will be entirely eliminated, many others will be significantly transformed as humans learn to work alongside machines.
Routine, repetitive tasks are most vulnerable to automation, while jobs requiring creativity, emotional intelligence, and complex problem-solving are more resistant.
The transition to an automated economy will create winners and losers, potentially exacerbating economic inequality if not managed carefully.
Adapting to this new reality will require major changes in education, social policies, and individual career strategies.
Despite the challenges, automation also has the potential to eliminate drudgery, increase productivity, and free humans to focus on more meaningful and creative pursuits.
Oppenheimer's work serves as both a warning and a call to action. By understanding the forces shaping the automated future, we can better prepare ourselves and our societies to harness its benefits while mitigating its risks. The robots may be coming, but with foresight and proactive adaptation, we can ensure that humans continue to thrive alongside them.