What We Owe the Future Summary

“What if the fate of countless future generations depended on the choices we make today? Would we act differently?”

1. Future People Matter as Much as Those Alive Today

The book begins with a simple yet profound idea: future people are just as important as those living now. They will experience joy, pain, and aspirations, just like us. The only difference is that they don’t exist yet, which makes it easy to overlook their needs. But their well-being depends on the decisions we make today.

The author uses a thought experiment to illustrate this. Imagine dropping a glass bottle in a forest. If you knew a child would cut herself on it in a week, a decade, or even a century, would it change your decision to clean it up? Most people would say no. This shows that the timing of harm doesn’t lessen its importance. Similarly, our actions today can either harm or help future generations, and we have a responsibility to act wisely.

This perspective is the foundation of longtermism, the belief that we should prioritize the long-term future. Humanity’s potential lifespan could stretch for millions of years, meaning there could be billions or even trillions of future people. Their lives could be flourishing or miserable, depending on the choices we make now.

Examples

• Saving ten people from a fire is better than saving one, just as helping billions in the future outweighs helping a few today.
• Advances in medicine and technology over the past 200 years have already improved countless lives, showing our ability to shape the future.
• The risk of human extinction, such as through nuclear war, threatens not just us but all future generations.

2. Moral Progress Is Not Guaranteed

Moral progress, like the abolition of slavery, feels inevitable in hindsight. But history shows that it’s often the result of deliberate effort by individuals and groups. For example, slavery was practiced for centuries and was economically profitable, yet it was abolished due to the activism of groups like the Quakers and British abolitionists.

The author argues that moral progress depends on the alignment of specific events and values. If history had unfolded differently, slavery might still exist today. This highlights the importance of actively working to improve societal values rather than assuming progress will happen on its own.

One danger is the concept of value lock-in, where a single value system becomes dominant and unchangeable. If harmful values, like those that supported slavery, were locked in, they could persist for centuries or even millennia. Avoiding this requires fostering a world where values can evolve and improve over time.

Examples

• The abolition of slavery was driven by a small group of activists, not by inevitable progress.
• Religious texts like the Bible and Quran have influenced values for thousands of years, showing how persistent ideas can be.
• Totalitarian regimes in the 20th century attempted to enforce rigid value systems, often with devastating consequences.

3. The Risks of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

Artificial general intelligence (AGI) could transform the world, but it also poses significant risks. AGI refers to machines that can perform a wide range of tasks at a human level or beyond. Once developed, AGI could accelerate technological and economic growth, but it could also lead to value lock-in.

AGI is concerning because it could be programmed to pursue specific goals indefinitely. If those goals reflect harmful or narrow values, they could dominate society for generations. For example, an AGI aligned with a totalitarian regime could suppress dissent and enforce its ideology permanently.

The timeline for AGI development is uncertain, but some experts predict it could happen within the next few decades. Even if it’s far off, the values we promote today could influence how AGI is used in the future. To avoid negative outcomes, we need to ensure that AGI supports a morally exploratory world where better values can emerge.

Examples

• Analyst Ajeya Cotra estimates a 10% chance of AGI by 2036 and a 50% chance by 2050.
• Historical examples, like religious crusades, show how groups have tried to eliminate opposing views.
• Charter cities with diverse value systems could help us test and refine societal norms before AGI locks them in.

4. Existential Risks Threaten Humanity’s Future

Human extinction or civilizational collapse would end the possibility of a better future. While asteroid impacts are often cited as a risk, humanity has already mitigated this threat through initiatives like NASA’s Spaceguard, which tracks near-Earth objects.

However, other risks are more pressing. Engineered pandemics, created using biotechnology, could combine the lethality of Ebola with the contagiousness of measles. Lax safety standards in labs and the ease of replicating pathogens make this a serious concern. Nuclear war and climate change also pose significant threats.

Even if humanity survives a catastrophe, recovery could be difficult. Depleting fossil fuel reserves, for example, could hinder industrialization after a collapse. Without access to coal, oil, and gas, rebuilding infrastructure like steel and cement production would be nearly impossible.

Examples

• The Shoemaker-Levy 9 comet impact on Jupiter in 1994 highlighted the dangers of asteroid collisions.
• Confirmed lab leaks have already caused outbreaks of diseases like anthrax and smallpox.
• Fossil fuels have been critical for industrialization, and their depletion could limit future recovery efforts.

5. The Importance of Keeping Options Open

To safeguard the future, we need to keep our options open. This means avoiding actions that limit our ability to adapt and innovate. For example, promoting clean energy technologies reduces reliance on fossil fuels, which helps combat climate change and preserves resources for future generations.

Keeping options open also applies to individual choices. Careers in fields like economics or statistics provide more opportunities to influence the world than narrower paths. Similarly, fostering a culture of learning and exploration ensures that society can adapt to new challenges.

By maintaining flexibility, we can better respond to existential risks and create a world where future generations can thrive. This requires both individual and collective effort to prioritize long-term thinking.

Examples

• Clean energy innovation reduces carbon emissions and preserves resources for future use.
• A PhD in economics opens more career paths than one in a less versatile field.
• Societies that value education and research are better equipped to handle unexpected challenges.

6. The Role of Political Activism

Political activism is one of the most effective ways to influence the future. Voting, campaigning, and advocating for policies that address existential risks can have a far-reaching impact. While individual actions like recycling are valuable, systemic change often requires political engagement.

For example, policies that promote clean energy or regulate biotechnology can reduce existential risks. Grassroots movements have historically driven significant change, from civil rights to environmental protection. By participating in these efforts, individuals can amplify their impact.

The author emphasizes that even small actions, like discussing important issues with friends and family, can lead to broader political participation. Collective action is key to addressing the challenges that threaten humanity’s future.

Examples

• The civil rights movement in the US achieved systemic change through collective activism.
• Policies like the Clean Air Act have significantly reduced pollution and improved public health.
• Grassroots campaigns have successfully pushed for renewable energy adoption in many countries.

7. The Case for Having Children

Having children is often seen as a personal choice, but it also has implications for the future. Children contribute to society by innovating, advocating for change, and addressing existential risks. A growing population can also help prevent technological stagnation, which could leave us vulnerable to new threats.

Falling fertility rates are a concern. If global fertility drops to 1.5 children per woman, the world population could shrink dramatically over the next few centuries. This decline would reduce the number of researchers, engineers, and inventors, slowing progress and limiting our ability to solve pressing problems.

The author argues that having children is a high-impact decision that benefits both individuals and society. By raising thoughtful, engaged citizens, parents can help shape a better future for everyone.

Examples

• The UN predicts the world population will plateau by 2100 and then decline.
• Technological progress often relies on increasing the number of researchers and innovators.
• Children raised with strong values can drive positive change in their communities.

8. Donating to Effective Causes

Donating to highly effective charities is one of the easiest ways to make a difference. For example, a $3,000 donation to the Clean Air Task Force can reduce carbon emissions by 3,000 tons, far outweighing the impact of going vegetarian for a lifetime.

Effective altruism, a movement the author supports, encourages people to focus on causes with the greatest impact. This might mean supporting organizations that address existential risks, like climate change or biotechnology safety.

By prioritizing high-impact donations, individuals can contribute to a safer and more prosperous future. Even small contributions can add up when directed toward the right causes.

Examples

• The Clean Air Task Force reduces emissions more effectively than individual lifestyle changes.
• Effective altruism has directed millions of dollars to high-impact charities.
• Donations to pandemic preparedness initiatives can help prevent future outbreaks.

9. The Power of Ideas

Ideas shape the world, and spreading good ideas is a powerful way to influence the future. Discussing important issues with friends and family can inspire others to take action. Education and public awareness campaigns can also drive societal change.

For example, the abolition of slavery began with a small group of activists spreading their ideas. Similarly, movements for women’s rights and environmental protection have relied on the power of ideas to gain momentum.

The author encourages readers to share their knowledge and engage in conversations about long-term thinking. By spreading awareness, we can build a culture that prioritizes the well-being of future generations.

Examples

• The Quakers’ abolitionist ideas inspired a generation of activists.
• Public awareness campaigns have successfully reduced smoking rates and improved public health.
• Discussions about climate change have led to increased political and social action.

Takeaways

1. Choose a career that allows you to make a meaningful impact, and treat it as an ongoing experiment.
2. Support high-impact causes through donations, activism, or spreading awareness.
3. Consider the long-term implications of your personal and societal choices, from having children to voting for policies that address existential risks.