Decisive

Are you widening your options, testing your assumptions, and preparing to be wrong in your decision-making?

1. Broaden Your Choices Beyond Yes or No

Viewing decisions as simple yes-no options often limits us. By approaching decisions with a wider perspective, we can identify better solutions that meet our needs.

Poor decision-making stems from failing to consider alternatives. For instance, we often ask, “Should I do this or not?” instead of asking, “What other options do I have?” Recognizing the variety of choices available helps us think creatively and avoid cornering ourselves into unproductive choices.

Another key aspect is the concept of opportunity cost. When we think about how our resources – time, money, or energy – could be spent elsewhere, it reframes our thinking. Considering what you give up by choosing one option should always be part of the decision-making process.

Examples

• A teen deciding whether to go to a party forgets the option of doing something else fun, like watching a movie with friends.
• A $1000 stereo seems worth it until the buyer thinks about the other $300 they could save with a simpler model.
• Shoppers bought fewer videos when reminded that not buying meant keeping money for other things.

2. Generate Multiple Options to Solve Problems

It's easy to latch onto one solution and stick with it. However, exploring multiple ideas simultaneously can lead to better results.

This approach, called multitracking, allows us to compare and combine the best aspects of different ideas. It reduces blind commitment to a single option and gives us fallback plans. By working on several ideas, we encourage flexibility and creativity while reducing the risk of overinvesting in a single outcome.

Keeping the number of options manageable is key. Too many choices can overwhelm us, making decisions harder. A balance of a few strong alternatives proves most effective when solving problems or creating strategies.

Examples

• Graphic designers working on multiple versions of an ad produced better results than those focusing on one.
• Companies testing three product prototypes simultaneously yielded faster results than those testing serially.
• Stores offering 6 jams over 24 choices sold more as customers felt less overwhelmed.

3. Learn From Solutions Others Have Used

Many solutions to your problems already exist; you just need to look outside yourself. Learning from others and using analogies can shine a light on alternative paths.

Businesses and individuals often find that competitors or other industries have faced similar challenges. Observing their strategies or borrowing ideas can inspire forward-thinking decisions. Using analogies helps us simplify problems into categories like speed, efficiency, or growth, making them easier to tackle.

You can discover surprising answers by researching broadly, stepping out of your industry and seeing how others solved comparable dilemmas.

Examples

• Walmart’s Sam Walton borrowed his checkout-line system from competitors.
• Speedo’s revolutionary swimsuit mimicked sharkskin for efficiency in the water.
• Entrepreneurs often mimic older industries’ successes adapted for newer challenges.

4. Eliminate Bias by Challenging Your Assumptions

Preferences and emotions cloud our judgment, causing us to favor what we already like or fear alternatives. To make better decisions, challenge your biases by seeking opposing evidence.

Forcing yourself to analyze why a less obvious choice might work helps deflate emotional influence. Alternatively, having someone play devil’s advocate ensures you consider weaknesses in your plan. Combining this with asking disconfirming questions can uncover critical insights that improve your judgment.

Questioning your own opinions and inviting disagreement opens pathways for more thoughtful and rational decisions.

Examples

• Ask, "What would need to be true for this job I dislike to actually be the best option for me?"
• A lawyer deciding on a firm should ask ex-employees not if they liked the job, but why they left.
• A manager might test ideas by challenging their team to argue against the proposed option.

5. Take the Perspective of an Outsider

When making decisions, stepping out of your own situation helps strip away biases. Seeing yourself from an outsider's view can provide clarity.

We often focus narrowly on our circumstances, assuming our problems are unique. But understanding similar outcomes faced by others offers invaluable data and cautionary tales. Analysis of base rates – statistics or historical outcomes for comparable scenarios – shows what’s truly likely, not just what feels unique.

Reflecting on whether you’d give the same advice to a friend offers an excellent way to think clearly from another angle, uncluttered by personal fears or ambitions.

Examples

• A chef dreaming of their own restaurant should consider that most eateries fail within three years.
• An investor asks how often startup ideas succeed instead of banking on emotional optimism.
• Restaurant reviews show critical consumer needs such as price and ambience over subjective opinions like food portions.

6. Experiment Small Rather Than Planning Big

Instead of committing everything to one decision or strategy, test smaller experiments to gather evidence about what works. Trying things out in small doses – called ooching – reduces risks and reveals outcomes.

By engaging in a "test-and-see" approach, we bypass assumptions and instead ground decisions in reality. Internships, prototypes, or trial periods allow us to learn hands-on. However, ooching isn’t always viable – certain life choices, like switching jobs or committing to a big project, require more certainty upfront.

When possible, small-scale experiments help avoid costly mistakes.

Examples

• A student considering law school does a law firm internship first to gauge interest.
• Companies use trial periods when hiring to vet potential employees.
• A person postponing full-time freelancing may first test small contracting gigs.

7. Look Into the Long Run Before You Decide

Short-term emotions often dominate decisions. To counter this, consider how choices will feel at different points in the future.

People often let fear or excitement dictate behavior. Using the "10/10/10" rule cuts through that. It asks, “How will I feel about this decision in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years?” This approach forces you to view decisions without the distortion of the present.

Similarly, imagining yourself giving advice to someone else allows you to remove short-term fears from the equation and prioritize longer-term objectives.

Examples

• A person worries about calling their crush but realizes they'll regret not trying years later.
• An employee hesitating to leave a toxic workplace envisions their well-being a year down the line.
• Before indulging in impulse buys, thinking 10-months-ahead might sideline temporary temptation.

8. Define Your Core Priorities to Avoid Conflict

When torn between two good options, clarify your long-term values. Knowing your deeper priorities ensures you base decisions on what truly matters.

Priorities differ at various stages of life. Writing them out clarifies what you're willing to trade off, whether time, money, or comfort. Organizing your calendar around key priorities ensures you're aligning aspirations with daily behavior.

Actively revisiting priorities keeps you grounded and prevents distractions from undermining what’s significant.

Examples

• A new parent rejects a high-demand promotion to spend evenings with family.
• Someone decides to skip nights out to save money for travel – aligning their big-picture values.
• Entrepreneurs looking for balance schedule equal time for hobbies and brainstorming sessions.

9. Prepare For Success or Failure in Equal Measure

Instead of focusing on only one potential outcome, picture a spectrum of possibilities. Overconfidence in predicting results can lead to unpreparedness for failure or success.

Use "prospective hindsight" to imagine an outcome where the decision fails and identify why as a way to prepare. At the same time, account for sudden successes, ensuring you're ready for added demands without becoming overwhelmed.

Adding cautionary buffers protects against mistakes like overly ambitious deadlines or insufficient resources.

Examples

• Business leaders create conservative and optimistic sales forecasts with strategies for both.
• Engineers build elevators far stronger than needed for safety.
• A digital product launch budget reserves extra funds for unexpected viral demand.

Takeaways

1. Schedule specific time blocks for your most important tasks or goals, ensuring they don’t get overtaken by less meaningful actions.
2. When making decisions, write out at least two alternate options to clarify all available paths.
3. Use "10/10/10" as a tool to evaluate how your decisions will feel now, in the near future, and years from now.