Introduction
In today's fast-paced world, where information and entertainment options are endless, what makes something truly popular? Why do certain songs, movies, products, or ideas capture our attention and spread like wildfire, while others fade into obscurity? These are the questions that Derek Thompson explores in his fascinating book "Hit Makers: The Science of Popularity in an Age of Distraction."
Thompson, a journalist and editor at The Atlantic, dives deep into the world of pop culture, marketing, and human psychology to uncover the hidden forces that shape our preferences and drive popularity. Through a mix of engaging stories, scientific research, and insightful analysis, he reveals that the path to becoming a "hit" is far more complex and unpredictable than we might think.
The Myth of Quality Equals Popularity
One of the first myths that Thompson debunks is the idea that popularity is solely based on quality. We often assume that the most popular books, movies, or artworks are inherently the best, but this isn't always the case. Thompson illustrates this point with a fascinating comparison between two Impressionist painters: Claude Monet and Gustave Caillebotte.
Monet's paintings, particularly his famous water lily series, are known and beloved worldwide. Crowds gather in museums to admire his work, and his name is synonymous with Impressionism. On the other hand, Caillebotte, despite being a talented artist in his own right, remains relatively unknown to the general public.
The difference in their fame isn't due to a vast gap in skill or artistic merit. Instead, it comes down to exposure. After Caillebotte's death, his personal art collection was displayed in a major exhibition at the Musée du Luxembourg. This collection included works by Monet and other Impressionists, but none of Caillebotte's own paintings. As a result, Monet and the other featured artists gained widespread recognition, while Caillebotte faded into obscurity.
This story serves as a powerful reminder that popularity often has more to do with visibility and timing than with inherent quality. It's a theme that Thompson returns to throughout the book, challenging our assumptions about what makes something a "hit."
The MAYA Principle: Familiarity Meets Novelty
If quality alone doesn't determine popularity, what does? Thompson introduces us to the concept of MAYA - Most Advanced Yet Acceptable - a principle developed by industrial designer Raymond Loewy. This idea suggests that people are drawn to things that strike a balance between the familiar and the novel.
Loewy, a French immigrant who became one of America's most influential designers, applied this principle to create iconic designs for everything from locomotives to cigarette packages. His work on the streamlined, bullet-shaped trains of the 1930s is a perfect example of MAYA in action. These trains were clearly recognizable as trains, maintaining their familiar function, but their sleek, aerodynamic design added an element of excitement and novelty.
Thompson explains that this balance between the familiar and the new is deeply rooted in human psychology. We're naturally curious and attracted to new things, but we also find comfort in the familiar. Products, ideas, or creative works that manage to combine these elements in just the right way are more likely to capture our attention and become popular.
This principle extends beyond physical design. In music, for instance, hit songs often follow familiar structures but introduce small variations or unique elements that make them stand out. In storytelling, successful narratives often remix familiar tropes or archetypes in fresh ways, giving audiences something new while still providing the comfort of recognizable patterns.
The Power of Repetition in Music
When it comes to music, Thompson reveals an interesting paradox: we crave both repetition and variation. Studies have shown that about 90% of the music people listen to is music they've heard before. This explains why hit songs can dominate the charts for months and why we often find ourselves listening to our favorite tracks on repeat.
But why don't we get bored with this repetition? Thompson explains that our brains are wired to appreciate slight variations within familiar patterns. He cites an experiment with mice that demonstrates this principle. When mice are played a single note repeatedly, they eventually stop paying attention. However, if a slight variation is introduced - say, a different note - their attention is immediately recaptured.
This pattern of repetition with minor variations is mirrored in the structure of many popular songs. The typical verse-chorus-verse-chorus-bridge structure provides a familiar framework, while small changes in lyrics, melody, or instrumentation keep our brains engaged.
Thompson argues that this balance of repetition and variation is key to creating hit songs. It's why we can listen to our favorite tracks over and over without getting bored, and why certain musical structures have remained popular for decades.
The Dark Side of Popularity: Reinforcing Stereotypes
While exploring the nature of popularity, Thompson doesn't shy away from discussing its potential downsides. One significant issue he highlights is how popular culture can reinforce harmful stereotypes, particularly when it comes to gender representation.
He cites the work of the Geena Davis Institute on Gender in Media, which analyzed 120 popular films released between 2010 and 2013. The findings were stark: less than a third of protagonists were female, and women were severely underrepresented in roles depicting positions of power or expertise.
Moreover, the study found that women were twice as likely as men to be shown in sexualized clothing, and comments about their appearance were five times more common than for their male counterparts.
Thompson argues that this skewed representation isn't just a reflection of societal biases - it actively reinforces them. The popularity of media that perpetuates these stereotypes creates a feedback loop, making it harder to challenge these ingrained ideas.
This section of the book serves as a sobering reminder that popularity isn't always a positive force. It can sometimes act as a conservative influence, reinforcing existing power structures and biases rather than challenging them.
The Limits of Manipulation
Given the potential rewards of creating a "hit," it's no surprise that many try to manipulate popularity. From marketing campaigns to social media strategies, there are countless attempts to engineer success. However, Thompson argues that there are limits to how much popularity can be artificially created or controlled.
He uses the example of Lady Gaga's album "Artpop" to illustrate this point. Despite aggressive promotion by her label, the album performed poorly compared to her previous hits. This case demonstrates that even with a strong marketing push, if a product doesn't resonate with the audience, it's unlikely to become genuinely popular.
Thompson also discusses how attempts to boost popularity can sometimes backfire. He cites a study of book reviews on Goodreads.com, which found that books that had won awards were often rated lower than those without accolades. The researchers theorized that this was due to inflated expectations and a broader, potentially less suitable audience being drawn to the book because of its award status.
Moreover, extreme popularity can sometimes trigger a backlash. Some people may reject something precisely because it's too popular, viewing it as overrated or no longer exclusive.
These examples highlight the complex and often unpredictable nature of popularity. While certain factors can influence an item's success, there's no foolproof formula for creating a hit.
The Role of Social Proof in Humor
Thompson delves into the psychology of humor to further illustrate how popularity works. He introduces the concept of "Benign Violation Theory," developed by sociologist Peter McGraw. This theory suggests that we find things funny when they violate our expectations in a way that's surprising but not offensive.
However, Thompson argues that there's more to making people laugh than just crafting the perfect joke. Social proof - the idea that we look to others to determine appropriate behavior - plays a crucial role in humor.
He uses the example of laugh tracks in television shows to demonstrate this point. Laugh tracks, which were ubiquitous in American TV comedies for decades, served to make viewers feel like they were part of a larger audience. Hearing others laugh signaled that it was both appropriate and expected to find the joke funny.
This insight extends beyond just humor. In many areas of life, we often look to others to determine what we should like or find interesting. This tendency can create self-reinforcing cycles of popularity, where something becomes more appealing simply because others appear to enjoy it.
However, Thompson notes that the effectiveness of such techniques can change over time. He points out that laugh tracks have largely fallen out of favor in modern TV comedies, as audiences have become more sophisticated and shows have evolved to create more immersive, realistic worlds where artificial laughter would feel out of place.
The Unpredictability of Popularity
Throughout the book, Thompson emphasizes that while we can identify factors that contribute to popularity, predicting what will become a hit remains incredibly challenging. He uses a computer simulation study by Duncan Watts to illustrate this point.
Watts created a model universe to study how new products spread through a population. The model considered factors like how open people were to trying new things (vulnerability) and how well-connected they were to others (density). Even with these parameters set, the simulation found that widespread adoption of a new product - a "cascade" of popularity - occurred in only 0.1% of cases.
This low success rate, even in a controlled simulation, underscores how much of popularity is due to chance and timing. Thompson provides a real-world example of this unpredictability with the story of the song "Rock Around the Clock." When first released in 1954, the song was largely ignored. However, when it was featured in the movie "Blackboard Jungle" a year later, it suddenly became a massive hit.
These examples serve to remind us that popularity is often a result of a complex interplay of factors, many of which are outside of anyone's control. What fails today might succeed tomorrow, given the right circumstances.
Debunking the Myth of "Going Viral"
In the age of social media, we often hear about content "going viral." The common understanding is that a single person shares something interesting, which then spreads rapidly from person to person until millions have seen it. However, Thompson argues that this understanding is largely a myth.
He cites a 2012 study by Yahoo scientists that examined how content spreads on platforms like Twitter. The study found that 90% of tweets aren't shared at all, and even among the top 1% of most-shared tweets, none truly went "viral" in the sense of spreading person-to-person across a large network.
Instead, what often appears to be viral spread is actually the result of broadcasting. When a piece of content seems to suddenly be everywhere, it's usually because it has been picked up and shared by one or more sources with large, existing audiences - like major news websites, popular YouTube channels, or celebrities with millions of followers.
This insight challenges our understanding of how information spreads in the digital age. It suggests that while the internet has democratized content creation, the distribution of that content still often relies on traditional power structures and existing networks of influence.
The Value Beyond Popularity
While much of the book focuses on understanding what makes things popular, Thompson also reminds us that popularity isn't everything. He points out that some of the most innovative and important creative works never achieve widespread recognition.
This is an important counterpoint to the book's main thrust. While understanding the mechanics of popularity can be valuable, Thompson suggests that we shouldn't lose sight of the inherent value of creativity and innovation, regardless of how many people appreciate it.
He encourages readers to look beyond what's popular and to value things based on their own merits, not just their widespread appeal. This message serves as a thoughtful conclusion to the book, reminding us that while popularity is an interesting phenomenon to study, it's not the only measure of worth or success.
Conclusion: The Complex Science of Hits
In "Hit Makers," Derek Thompson takes us on a fascinating journey through the landscape of popularity, challenging our assumptions and revealing the complex factors that contribute to creating a "hit."
From the MAYA principle that balances familiarity and novelty, to the power of repetition in music, to the role of chance and timing, Thompson shows us that popularity is far from a simple equation. It's a complex interplay of psychology, social dynamics, cultural context, and often, sheer luck.
He debunks common myths, like the idea that quality always rises to the top or that content truly goes "viral" in the way we often imagine. Instead, he presents a nuanced view of how ideas, products, and creative works capture our collective attention.
Thompson also doesn't shy away from discussing the potential downsides of popularity, such as its tendency to reinforce existing stereotypes and biases. This balanced approach gives readers a comprehensive understanding of both the allure and the pitfalls of chasing popularity.
Perhaps most importantly, "Hit Makers" reminds us that while understanding the science of popularity can be valuable, it's not an exact science. There's no foolproof formula for creating a hit, and some of the most important and innovative work may never achieve widespread recognition.
In the end, Thompson's book leaves us with a deeper appreciation for the hidden forces that shape our cultural landscape. It encourages us to be more discerning consumers of popular culture, to look beyond surface-level appeal, and to value creativity and innovation even when it doesn't achieve widespread popularity.
For anyone interested in marketing, media, pop culture, or human behavior, "Hit Makers" offers invaluable insights into the nature of popularity in our modern, distraction-filled world. It's a thought-provoking exploration of why we like what we like, and how those preferences shape our collective cultural experiences.