One Billion Americans Summary

What if America's best hope for staying the world's leading economy is a radical population boost? Can we imagine a country of one billion people?

1. America Needs More People to Stay Competitive

America's history as an economic powerhouse is impressive. By the 20th century, it surpassed old world empires like Britain and led the global economy through two world wars. However, its leading position is now at risk due to China's increasing wealth and larger population.

China's population advantage means it can achieve global dominance even by modestly improving wealth per person. To maintain its edge, America would need to triple its population to one billion. Economic growth thrives alongside a growing population, as more people need services, creating more jobs and wealth.

A billion-person United States is not far-fetched. At this size, its population density would still be lower than countries like France or South Korea, and only slightly higher than present-day France. Preparing for this shift would require addressing housing, infrastructure, and environmental impacts, but it's an attainable goal with proper planning.

Examples

• The US' GDP surpassed Germany, Japan, and Italy combined in 1938, boosting wartime resources.
• China's population is over 1 billion, already positioning it for economic ascension.
• France has 123 people per square mile, supporting the case for a denser US population.

2. Bigger Populations Lead to More Choices and Innovation

A large population enriches economies by fostering competition and offering more to consumers. In smaller towns, businesses cater to broad tastes but lack specialization. Tripling a town’s population could sustain multiple specialized restaurants, each delivering better quality choices.

Cities exemplify this principle. Thriving metropolises offer varied services – from countless coffee shops to niche stores – because they have the population to fuel such diversity. Competition among businesses elevates quality, creates jobs, and fosters innovation. Ideas thrive when people are exposed to diverse influences and technologies.

Such innovation is vital for tackling significant challenges like climate change. Though a larger population could increase carbon emissions, it could also spur discoveries in sustainable living technologies, helping mitigate environmental harm.

Examples

• Small towns with one general restaurant often serve less impressive food compared to cities with specialized dining options.
• High-density areas like Silicon Valley excel at innovation due to shared knowledge and resources.
• Public transportation systems like those in Japan or Germany stem from densely populated urban needs.

3. Financial Barriers Lower Birth Rates

The average US citizen has 1.72 children, lower than the 2.6 children most would actually like to have. Financial burdens, particularly the cost of education and childcare, discourage many families from growing.

Government policies emphasizing student loans exacerbate this issue. Young adults, burdened with debt, delay starting families. The rising costs of raising children and stagnant income growth further discourage larger families, even among those wanting more kids.

Black and Hispanic families, whose median ages are well within the childbearing range, could help reverse declining birth rates. However, this would require more financial support from the government. Longevity-focused policies would ensure broader support for families of all backgrounds.

Examples

• The General Social Survey shows both men and women want more kids than they're currently having.
• Student loan debt delays parenthood because of financial instability in early adult years.
• Black Americans’ median age is 34, but lack of support means missed opportunities for population growth.

4. Social Welfare Could Eradicate Child Poverty

Despite America's wealth, 21% of its children live in poverty. Government support for families is minimal compared to countries like Germany, where universal childcare allowances are provided, contributing to better economic outcomes.

Universal social programs like Germany’s Kindergeld help parents care for children without income discrimination. The US, by contrast, offers only targeted measures like child tax credits. Poor families often miss out due to work requirements, perpetuating cycles of hardship.

Better welfare programs, offering cash allowances and affordable childcare, would not only elevate living conditions but also encourage families to have the children they desire. This would reinvigorate the workforce, expanding the economy in the long term.

Examples

• Germany’s Kindergeld provides around 2,448 euros annually per child, universally.
• The US child tax credit excludes poor families who don’t meet work requirements.
• A 2018 poll found childcare costs are the top barrier to larger families in America.

5. Immigration Fuels Economic Growth

Immigration has always been a pillar of American economic prosperity. Immigrants immediately contribute as workers and consumers, helping sustain economic growth without the waiting period needed for new-born citizens to mature.

George Washington welcomed immigrants for their role in building a great nation. Today, restrictive immigration policies threaten this opportunity. Policies like the Trump administration’s immigration cuts could shrink the US economy by 2% over the next decade.

Immigrants fill gaps in both skilled and unskilled labor. Low-skilled workers allow native-born Americans, especially women, to pursue higher education and better-paying jobs. Meanwhile, skilled immigrants, like foreign-trained doctors, could help improve the affordability of healthcare.

Examples

• Studies show immigrants help educated women join the workforce by providing child care and domestic labor.
• Trump’s immigration cuts threatened to reduce economic growth by 2%.
• Foreign-born doctors could fill gaps in America’s expensive healthcare system.

6. Revitalizing Dying Cities with Population Growth

Cities like Detroit and Cleveland are hollowing out as residents migrate for better opportunities. Empty neighborhoods fall into disrepair, draining local economies and reducing property values.

Increasing the population could revitalize such cities, attracting investment, restoring infrastructure, and improving lives. The government could decentralize industries, encouraging businesses and federal agencies to set up in less populated areas.

Additionally, relocating corporate centers from expensive hubs like Manhattan to smaller cities, where office space is cheaper, could regenerate these local economies.

Examples

• Detroit, once a booming industrial hub, is now plagued by abandoned homes and businesses.
• Government agencies like the Bureau of Engraving could decentralize to smaller cities like Youngstown, Ohio.
• Publishers’ historic settlement in New York could easily relocate to affordable cities.

7. Housing Challenges Rooted in Policy, Not Space

Despite vast land availability in the US, zoning laws restrict housing developments. Detached homes predominate, even though multi-family homes like duplexes save space and lower construction costs.

Cities like Seattle reinforce these restrictive zoning policies, limiting the ability to build affordable housing. Minor updates, such as permitting quadplexes, could immediately increase housing availability and reduce homelessness.

To enable population growth, America must adopt policies encouraging varied housing types in both urban and rural areas.

Examples

• Seattle reserves 75% of its land for detached homes, constraining housing supply.
• Washington, DC, zoning rules limit blocks to 60% structural capacity.
• Duplexes and townhouses offer affordable alternatives to single-family homes.

8. Improved Transport Systems Reduce Congestion

Traffic problems grow worse alongside population growth. Despite technological advances, average commuting time has increased significantly since the 1980s. Better transport infrastructure is critical to supporting a growing population.

Adopting systems like Germany’s S-Bahn could decrease travel time, reduce car dependency, and lower road maintenance costs. S-Bahn’s seamless integration with buses creates efficient and affordable transport solutions.

Retrofits to existing railway systems in cities like Philadelphia and Washington, DC, could lay the foundation for similar transport upgrades in the US.

Examples

• In 1982, Americans spent 20 hours annually in traffic. By 2017, it was 54 hours.
• Munich’s S-Bahn revolutionized commuter transport with underground systems.
• Philadelphia’s existing tracks could form a similar network with investment.

9. A Larger Population Will Enrich Culture and Communities

More people in America would mean richer cultural diversity, stronger communities, and better public services. New residents would use amenities, encourage businesses to flourish, and breathe life into local traditions.

Strengthening immigration and encouraging higher birth rates would not only grow the economy but also improve societal resilience. America’s cultural and social identities have always been dynamic, fueled by diversity and growth.

This cultural richness is as much an asset as any economic factor, inspiring innovation, connection, and global influence.

Examples

• Immigration drives cultural blends in cuisine, festivals, and language.
• New businesses in underserved communities increase local opportunities.
• In cities like New York, high population density supports world-class museums and theaters.

Takeaways

1. Advocate for policy changes that support diverse housing and denser development to reduce costs and expand availability.
2. Push for expanded social programs like universal childcare allowances and paid family leave, enabling families to thrive.
3. Support better transport infrastructure and immigration reform to build a more robust, innovative, and interconnected society.