Post Corona

What happens when a global pandemic fast-forwards existing trends in commerce, education, and society? We find ourselves living in an accelerated version of the future.

1. The Pandemic Supercharged Existing Trends

COVID-19 didn’t rewrite economic patterns; it hit fast-forward on trends already in progress. Before 2020, online shopping, remote work, and virtual education were growing steadily, but the pandemic broke the dam, skyrocketing demand for these services.

E-commerce, for example, experienced two decades' worth of growth within a mere eight weeks. By early 2020, only 16% of all retail occurred online. Lockdowns and social distancing measures quickly pushed this figure closer to 30%. Similarly, online education went from a niche offering to the backbone of global schooling overnight, as students of all ages transitioned to digital platforms like Zoom.

But not everyone benefited equally. Low-income communities faced higher unemployment rates, doubling the impact on already struggling households. This swift economic restructuring widened the gap between those who could adapt and those who could not.

Examples

• Online retail market share jumped from 16% to 30% in eight weeks.
• Schools nationwide adopted tools like Zoom for virtual education almost overnight.
• Unemployment rates for low-income families soared, leaving them disproportionately affected.

2. Big Companies Got Bigger

The pandemic crushed many small businesses but proved to be a windfall for massive corporations with the resources to weather the storm. Companies like Amazon, Tesla, and Netflix saw their valuations skyrocket, while smaller enterprises declared bankruptcy in droves.

Government bailouts also played a role. Sectors like airlines, considered too vital to fail, received billions in aid. Meanwhile, big tech firms leveraged their dominant market positions to capitalize on the crisis. For instance, Amazon used the opportunity to strengthen its delivery network and expand into healthcare.

The stock market stayed surprisingly robust as capital flowed away from struggling small enterprises into durable giants, reinforcing the dominance of large corporations. This created an economy increasingly dependent on a few powerful players.

Examples

• Amazon’s stock rose by 67% during the early months of the pandemic.
• Tesla’s valuation skyrocketed by 242%, despite economic uncertainty.
• Airlines received $25 billion in government bailouts while smaller businesses collapsed.

3. Tech Giants Took Over

The pandemic not only made big companies bigger but cleared the way for tech giants to become even more influential. Companies like Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft capitalized on the crisis to expand their dominance.

Amazon, for example, expanded its healthcare initiatives with a $4 billion investment in medical infrastructure, hinting at future moves like virtual doctor services and prescription deliveries. Meanwhile, Apple strengthened its subscription services, ensuring consistent income even when hardware sales fluctuate.

These firms weren’t new to success, but the pandemic environment gave them a unique chance to grow their control over emerging industries like online healthcare and digital media, reshaping commerce in their image.

Examples

• Amazon diversified into healthcare with a massive $4 billion initiative.
• Apple expanded subscription models like Apple TV+ and Apple Music.
• Combined, the five major tech companies accounted for 21% of all U.S. market value in mid-2020.

4. Unicorn Start-ups Are Multiplying

Ten years ago, billion-dollar unicorn start-ups were a rarity. Today, their numbers are surging, even during the pandemic. Venture capitalists, flush with cash, are eager to invest in the next big idea, even without solid evidence of profitability.

This boom hasn’t come without risks. Start-ups often rely on bold claims rather than solid business models to attract funding. The mattress company Casper, for example, struggles with losses despite its claims of "revolutionizing sleep." Still, companies with scalable models like Spotify and Robinhood could be poised for trillion-dollar valuations.

With more concentrated wealth in the hands of big tech and venture capitalists, the trend of speculative investments in new ideas shows no signs of slowing.

Examples

• Casper lost $300 per mattress sold despite its hyped tech claims.
• Robinhood's investment app gained traction amid growing retail investor activity.
• Spotify’s scalable subscription model continues to attract attention from investors.

5. Higher Education Faces a Reckoning

For years, tuition costs rose without significant improvements in classroom learning. The pandemic exposed these flaws, forcing colleges to adopt digital tools and rethink how they deliver education.

Students rebelled against paying premium prices for subpar online classes, with many questioning whether degrees were worth the debt. Some universities risk going bankrupt if they fail to adapt, but those that embrace online learning innovations could use the crisis to reinvent themselves, reaching larger audiences while cutting costs.

This moment presents an opportunity to reshape education into a system that emphasizes accessible, engaging, and sustainable teaching methods.

Examples

• Tuition costs have increased by 1,400% over the past 40 years without major quality improvements.
• A survey found that 75% of students were unhappy with online learning formats during the pandemic.
• One in six high school seniors is considering delaying college enrollment due to dissatisfaction.

6. A Fragile Society Faces Greater Risk

COVID-19 served as a stress test for society and revealed deep-seated weaknesses, including inequality and poor governance. As a result, the United States struggled more than many other countries to respond effectively.

Underfunded public health agencies, lopsided stimulus packages, and a lack of social safety nets compounded the crisis. For example, while Germany’s Kurzarbeit program preserved jobs by paying furloughed workers, U.S. billionaires grew richer as unemployment soared.

The pandemic revealed the importance of both individual community action and systemic government reforms to ensure resilience in the face of future challenges.

Examples

• Germany’s Kurzarbeit system paid two-thirds of furloughed workers’ salaries, preventing mass unemployment.
• In the U.S., government bailouts disproportionately benefited corporations, leaving individual workers with limited support.
• U.S. billionaires increased their wealth by over $500 billion during the pandemic, while everyday workers struggled.

7. The Stock Market Masks Real Suffering

Despite widespread economic devastation, the stock market performed surprisingly well during the pandemic. This disparity between Wall Street and Main Street underscores the growing disconnect between financial markets and everyday life.

While small businesses folded, investments flowed into safe sectors like tech and essential services, boosting their stock prices. This created an illusion that the economy was healthier than it was, masking the struggles faced by workers and communities.

This skewed recovery raises questions about the fairness of economic systems that protect investments at the expense of livelihoods.

Examples

• Small-business closures surged while sectors like tech saw massive stock gains.
• The S&P 500 showed positive performance by the end of 2020, despite widespread layoffs.
• Netflix and Shopify thrived as people stayed home, contrasting sharply with shuttered brick-and-mortar businesses.

8. New Opportunities Arise in the Gig Economy

The pandemic shifted traditional models of work, with an increased reliance on gig platforms like Uber Eats and Instacart. These platforms profited from people needing deliveries, but the broader gig economy also created opportunities for flexible employment.

Companies that focus on creating cutting-edge tools or services for this shifting workforce could become the next leaders in a more diversified modern economy. However, reliance on gig workers raises questions about long-term job security and benefits.

As the gig economy grows, industries need strategies to protect their workers while harnessing their potential contributions to innovation.

Examples

• Instacart’s grocery delivery service became indispensable during lockdowns.
• Uber Eats experienced record growth as restaurants pivoted to takeout.
• Companies like Fiverr benefited from professionals seeking freelance work during layoffs.

9. Building Stronger Communities Is Essential

The pandemic highlighted the need for social cohesion and effective governance. Countries that emphasized collective sacrifice generally fared better than those prioritizing individualism.

The U.S., with its fractured approach, suffered from unnecessary losses and a slower recovery. Programs like a Corona Corps could encourage young people to aid pandemic relief while rebuilding trust and a sense of community.

Stronger relationships between governments, businesses, and individuals are the way forward, both to survive current crises and prevent future ones.

Examples

• South Korea’s track-and-trace system employed hundreds to contain outbreak clusters.
• Germany leveraged furlough programs to maintain economic stability.
• The U.S. lacked cohesive pandemic policies and underfunded agencies like the CDC.

Takeaways

1. Invest in online learning and education reform to make it accessible and engaging for wider audiences.
2. Advocate for policies that prioritize equitable economic recovery, such as systems similar to Germany’s Kurzarbeit.
3. Support community-based initiatives that encourage public service and collective responsibility to strengthen social bonds.