Success and Luck

Luck plays a larger part in success than we care to admit, and recognizing this could reshape society for the better.

1. Luck’s unnoticed role in success

Many believe that hard work and determination are the primary forces behind prosperity. While these traits matter, luck often plays a major role that isn’t always recognized. Robert Frank uses his personal experience to highlight this — he survived a cardiac arrest in 2007 only because an ambulance happened to be nearby at the exact moment he collapsed.

This ties into a larger social narrative: people like to think they’ve earned their status purely through effort. However, luck influences outcomes starting from the circumstances of one’s birth. Where you’re born, your family’s income level, and even genetic talents all depend on chance. These unearned advantages significantly shape future opportunities.

Ignoring the randomness in success perpetuates myths like meritocracy. It leads people to believe those who fall behind simply didn’t try hard enough, which overlooks systemic inequality. Acknowledging luck wouldn’t undermine effort but would create more space for empathy and better policies.

Examples

• Robert Frank’s near-death experience saved by an ambulance’s chance proximity.
• Babies born to wealthy families in developed countries have easier lives compared to equally talented children in poor regions.
• Some individuals are born with innate talents or physical traits that directly benefit career paths.

2. A string of lucky breaks can determine a career

Luck doesn’t just appear once; it often compounds, creating momentum that can leave others behind. A single opportunity or chance event can set someone on a path toward major success, highlighting the randomness of achieving greatness.

Take Bill Gates as an example. While he possessed incredible intelligence and drive, he happened to attend one of the rare schools in the 1960s that had access to a computer terminal. This stroke of luck put him light-years ahead of his peers during the early tech boom. Similarly, minor factors like birth month can add up — researchers have found that CEOs born in summer months are underrepresented due to early disadvantages in school compared to their older classmates.

Humans often invent “inevitable” narratives about high achievers, attributing their success purely to ability. But as studies and stories of success show, a few favorable coincidences can define who thrives and who doesn’t.

Examples

• Bill Gates gaining early access to computers at Lakeside Prep in the 1960s.
• Summer-born individuals facing relative disadvantages in academics and leadership development.
• Paul Lazarsfeld’s research experiment where hindsight bias made people falsely accept rural soldiers’ superiority over urban ones.

3. Small advantages snowball into dominance

In competitive environments, even tiny initial advantages can snowball into massive leads, especially as markets and industries become global. When smaller businesses competed regionally, everyone had somewhat equal chances to thrive. But as technology connected the world, a slight advantage — often based on luck — could lead to global dominance.

Think of the piano industry before modern transportation. In older times, piano manufacturers were smaller and served local areas due to the difficulty of moving large instruments. As transportation improved, top makers with slight edges in craftsmanship or resources outcompeted others and took over the market. Today’s winner-take-all economy works much the same way, where even a minimal skill or resource gap can leave everyone else lagging behind.

Importantly, a growing market doesn’t always reward pure ability. Instead, those lucky enough to catch small breaks early dominate, and the rewards keep compounding.

Examples

• Top piano manufacturers dominating globally after trains and cars made local competition obsolete.
• Rising inequality derived from expanded global competition and technology.
• Runners in a race where one catches a chance tailwind, crossing the finish line milliseconds ahead.

4. People struggle to see how luck has helped them

Why don’t successful people admit the role luck played in their achievements? One explanation is cognitive bias. Specifically, the availability heuristic makes people overvalue the things they remember easily, like their hard work or sacrifices, while ignoring external factors.

For instance, many people believe they deserve their wealth entirely through effort or talent, downplaying how circumstances helped them. Even lottery winners often describe their wins as the result of clever strategies rather than random chance. This automatic over-crediting of one’s own actions can make people less sympathetic toward others or more resistant to redistributive policies.

When we downplay luck, we often reinforce inequality. Acknowledging that chance events shape outcomes could break these biases and lead to fairer views of both failure and success.

Examples

• 90 percent of drivers believe they’re above-average drivers, despite that being mathematically impossible.
• Lottery winners emphasize strategies, ignoring the randomness involved.
• Cognitive biases, like the availability heuristic, privilege personal recollections of effort over external events.

5. Shared infrastructure creates a lucky society

Where you’re born can hugely shape your opportunities. Nepalese worker Birkhaman Rai, though talented and resourceful, can never match the economic rewards of someone born in a country with strong public institutions.

Countries like the United States have historically been “lucky,” with systems that amplify individual potential. However, poorly maintained infrastructure threatens this advantage. Inadequate investments in education, transportation, and healthcare make life harder for many citizens and reduce opportunities for collective success.

Many wealthy individuals resist efforts to fund public goods, often arguing that their wealth is due solely to personal achievements. However, taxing the lucky to foster shared opportunities ensures that everyone has a better chance of winning in the lottery of life.

Examples

• Birkhaman’s talents undervalued in a poor rural setting compared to wealthier countries.
• The U.S.’s failing public infrastructure receiving poor marks from engineers.
• Calls for wealthy individuals to pay higher taxes to support collective goods.

6. Spending patterns waste, rather than enrich

Sometimes, success leads to spending patterns that don’t improve anyone’s quality of life. For instance, wedding costs in the U.S. have ballooned simply because couples feel obligated to match or outdo their peers. But spending more doesn’t provide more happiness or better marriages.

This relentless focus on relative consumption leads to a wasteful “arms race” of competition, where people spend just to keep up. A progressive consumption tax could curb this behavior. By taxing spending rather than earnings, such policies could encourage saving and create revenue to fund societal improvements, such as better schools or healthcare.

Cutting back on competitive consumption would benefit all of society while still leaving room for personal goals and aspirations.

Examples

• Weddings costing $30,000 on average in 2014 compared to $11,000 in 1980.
• Manhattan’s high average wedding costs versus rural Appalachia.
• Consumption taxes targeting spending habits while saving for collective investment.

7. Collaboration beats selfishness in the long run

Even in competitive fields, selfishness may hurt individuals’ prospects. A successful career often depends on teamwork, humility, and acknowledging others’ contributions. When Scott Forstall at Apple focused solely on personal credit, his career trajectory soured despite his technical brilliance.

Humility makes people likable and trusted, which ultimately fosters stronger collaborations and partnerships. For example, fictional profiles in an experiment showed that individuals who credited others for their success were rated much more favorably than those who didn’t.

People value genuine recognition of teamwork and luck. Acknowledging this not only builds allies but strengthens long-term career and personal prospects.

Examples

• Scott Forstall’s failure at Apple due to arrogance and blame-shifting.
• Students rating a self-aware job candidate more highly in Robert Frank’s classroom experiment.
• General economic theories highlighting cooperation as more effective than pure self-interest.

8. Birth months and success odds

Even subtle factors like birth months affect the likelihood of success. Research shows that summer-born individuals often fall behind peers due to small academic disadvantages starting in childhood. Over time, these early setbacks can snowball, reducing confidence and opportunities.

This example illustrates how external, uncontrollable factors profoundly shape life outcomes. Even when people compete on seemingly even footing, initial circumstances can quietly predetermine outcomes.

Examples

• CEOs underrepresented among those born in June through August.
• Systematic disadvantages stemming from school-age gaps.
• Long-term educational impacts of early disadvantages.

9. Meritocracy myths and societal gaps

The idea of “earning” success can justify vast inequalities, reinforcing societal divides. Recognizing luck combats this narrative and can pave the way for better policies like progressive taxation or universal healthcare, which ensure broader shared prosperity.

Viewing luck as an essential part of success builds empathy, allowing us to create systems that make society fairer for everyone.

Examples

• Misconceptions that poor people “deserve” their struggles.
• Rich individuals opposing higher taxes while assuming sole responsibility for their wealth.
• Progressive policies boosting opportunities for less-privileged groups.

Takeaways

1. Reflect on how luck has shaped your own life to develop greater empathy for others.
2. Push for policies, such as progressive consumption taxes, that fund public goods and reduce inequality.
3. Practice humility by recognizing and crediting others’ contributions in your personal and professional life.