The Confidence Game

Why do people believe things that are too good to be true? Because con artists are masters at exploiting our emotions and blind spots while making us feel extraordinary.

1. Knowing less about others is often safer

We naturally observe others, but consciously knowing too much about them can affect our ability to form unbiased opinions. When we learn things about people that contradict our preferences or make us feel uneasy, it impacts how we view them, often causing discomfort in relationships.

In an experiment conducted by psychologist Jeffrey Simpson, couples who better understood their partner's possibly negative feelings were less happy than those who misread or avoided such emotional subtleties. This suggests that some emotional distance leads to greater satisfaction. Humans are better off avoiding total transparency because discomfort from negative perceptions may weaken bonds.

Con artists, however, turn this dynamic on its head. They dive deeply into understanding emotions and vulnerabilities to manipulate others. Reading body language and other cues allows them to know their target far better than most people care to know one another.

Examples

• Jeffrey Simpson found couples happier when they misunderstood their spouse because it shielded them from negativity.
• A fortune teller tricked a financially and emotionally vulnerable woman out of $27,000 after observing her stress and sadness through non-verbal clues.
• Con artists rely on gathering this intel to expertly connect with victims and suppress suspicion.

2. Winning trust is a con artist's greatest tool

To succeed, a con artist must be trusted, often using charm and shared similarities to break defenses. Humans instinctively trust people who seem familiar or share common values, which manipulative personalities mimic through techniques like mirroring.

Joan, a victim of a con artist, learned this harsh lesson after falling for the sweet but dishonest charm of Greg, who spent two years convincing her of a fake background. His attentiveness and kindness masked serious lies about his identity. Meanwhile, psychological studies also show we are naturally more productive and trusting when team members resemble us.

Con artists fake this similarity or camaraderie tirelessly. Whether through mannerisms or false shared histories, their goal remains the same: create enough trust to move toward exploitation.

Examples

• Joan believed Greg's fabricated story for years due to his careful trust-building.
• Participants in Lisa DeBruine's research trusted altered "similar-looking" virtual teammates more.
• Con artists mimic expressions, body posture, or speech patterns to make targets comfortable.

3. Victims are hooked through small commitments

Con artists know people are more likely to agree to a bigger request once they’ve accommodated a minor one. This tactic, called the "foot-in-the-door technique," allows con artists to escalate the favor they are asking without alarming the target.

For instance, in Stanford’s 1966 study, phone-based questions prompted housewives to consent to more intrusive demands later on. Similarly, a teenager calling himself a Nigerian prince charmed newspapers into publishing his pen pal request for $4—and duped numerous strangers. The dynamic here relies on creating incremental trust where victims believe they are making logical decisions.

Scaling down large requests (known as the "door-in-the-face technique") is also another subtle way con artists gain compliance. After all, when a smaller request follows a rejected larger one, targets often feel compelled to say yes.

Examples

• Mothers in a Stanford study agreed to door-to-door surveys only after previous phone participation.
• A "Nigerian prince" scammed Americans out of small sums using pen pal ads.
• Rare art charity auctions have been leveraged by fraudsters lowering demands after an initial rebuttal.

4. Con artists exploit our idealized self-image

People often view themselves in flattering or aspirational ways. Con artists manipulate this positive, sometimes inaccurate self-perception, convincing targets they’re special enough to deserve unique opportunities.

Take the case of a professor manipulated by an online model. Idealized and flattered by attention from someone seemingly unattainable, he overlooked glaring inconsistencies—like never meeting the woman directly. This blindness escalated until he was caught unknowingly transporting drugs. Such tactics extend into familial pride too, as seen with con man Thierry Tilly, who exploited French aristocrats' obsession with their heritage.

In these scenarios, the victims' faulty self-image rendered them blind to glaring cons because they wanted desperately to believe their worth and the favorable scenarios painted for them.

Examples

• A naive professor's ego led him to unknowingly carry narcotics.
• Tilly convinced a noble family Freemasons were plotting against them to seize their fortune.
• Flattery enables victims to overlook red flags because believing good things is easier.

5. False wins inspire reckless decisions

Success—even fake or fleeting—boosts optimism that there’s more to come. Con artists know small "investments" pay big dividends for duping victims into backing larger schemes.

In 1889, William Miller's scam demonstrated this perfectly. He paid early investors fake profits with new investors’ money, encouraging almost everyone involved to reinvest more and more. Casinos and gambling halls also thrive off this psychology, where one lucky win can cost players much more over time.

Optimism blinds us and fuels overconfidence, making us search for evidence that things will work out despite logical signs suggesting otherwise. This behavioral flaw makes financial fraud and emotional scams so effective.

Examples

• William Miller ran a Ponzi straightforwardly by feeding an illusion of guaranteed wins.
• Casinos exploit past earnings to encourage ever-riskier betting.
• An art dealer bought numerous forgeries by trusting a mysterious source's unprovable tales.

6. Beliefs persist, even against evidence

Our mind clings to preconceived beliefs—even when factual evidence emerges. Psychologist Leon Festinger suggested that contradicting realities cause too much stress, leading us to twist perceptions rather than abandoning faith.

His work with an apocalyptic cult showed human tendencies to rewrite failure into confirmation. Even when a predicted doomsday failed, the cult didn’t disband. Instead, they reversed logic to claim their devotion stopped the apocalypse. Believers similarly refuse glaring proof of scams due to warped reasoning.

When con artists cast doubt, victims often feel unsure rather than firm. This hesitation ensures belief systems aren't seriously questioned.

Examples

• Festinger's cult doubled down after a missed apocalypse forecast.
• Investors refused doubting schemes like the Ponzi fraud.
• Gullible victims reinterpret disasters as justified accidents.

7. Protecting reputation enables silence

Reputation often trumps logical reasoning for avoiding embarrassment. People value their dignity too much to publicize being fooled—a vulnerability scammers use to continue operating.

History shows fraudsters like Sir Francis Drake's "rumored heir" capitalize on decorum. Seventy thousand investors bought into the absurd story, but nobody later admitted this mistake. Similarly, police corruption ripe for whistleblowing goes unreported if those involved were complicit.

Fear of social stigma becomes a shield for criminals as it deters admission out of pride.

Examples

• Drake fake-treasure bonds swindled thousands who stayed mum.
• Public figures hesitate confessing minor errors for fear of perceived gullibility.
• Cons work because perpetrators trust shame will silence bad publicity.

Takeaways

1. Know yourself better to recognize manipulative triggers—if someone excessively appeals to your emotions or insecurities, question their intentions.
2. Stay cautious with "too good to be true" offers; if they claim you have nothing to lose, take a step back and reevaluate credibility.
3. Build awareness about common persuasion techniques like incremental requests or false familiarity to avoid falling for scams.