The Fourth Turning

“History is seasonal, and winter is coming.” This poignant statement from "The Fourth Turning" by William Strauss challenges our perception of history, urging us to view time as cyclical rather than linear.

1. History Moves in Cycles, Not Lines

The concept of time has varied dramatically throughout human history. Early humans believed history was chaotic, with events happening randomly, devoid of patterns or meaning. Later, ancient societies saw time as cyclical, tied to the rhythms of nature. Finally, Western monotheistic religions embraced the idea of linear time, where history has a clear beginning, middle, and end.

However, Strauss and Howe argue that linear time fails to capture the natural ebb and flow inherent in human society. They propose a cyclical model where history unfolds in repeating patterns, akin to the changing seasons. Each full cycle, or saeculum, spans approximately 80-100 years, paralleling a human lifespan, and is divided into four distinct "Turnings," each lasting around 20 years.

This recurring structure isn’t merely theoretical; evidence comes from repeated historical trends. From the American Revolution to the Civil War, and from the Great Depression to World War II, the authors demonstrate how society follows predictable shifts, underscoring the illusion that we are ever truly disconnected from history's cyclical nature.

Examples

• The prosperity and institution-building after World War II mark a "High" in the cycle.
• The turbulence of the 1960s and 1970s reflect an "Awakening," similar to previous cultural renaissances.
• The political and societal fragmentation of recent decades mirrors past "Unravelings."

2. The Four Turnings: Society’s Seasons

Strauss and Howe describe the four turnings as seasons within a single saeculum. Each turning has distinct characteristics, shaping society’s mood and priorities. First is the "High," a period of stability and cooperation, akin to spring, where institutions thrive but individuality is subdued. The most recent "High" followed World War II.

Next comes the "Awakening," a passionate era of cultural upheaval and questioning authority, resembling summer. This was seen during the 1960s and 1970s when countercultural movements like civil rights and anti-war advocacy challenged societal norms.

The third phase is the "Unraveling," an autumn-like period where individualism reigns and institutions weaken. Economic inequality and political polarization dominate, as witnessed in the 1980s and beyond. Finally, the "Crisis," comparable to winter, is a period of institutional collapse and collective hardship, but also an opportunity for rebirth and rebuilding.

Examples

• Post-World War II prosperity represents the "High."
• The civil liberties movements of the 1960s define the "Awakening."
• The economic and cultural fragmentation of the 1990s exemplify the "Unraveling."

3. Generations as Archetypes

Each turning leaves a distinct mark on the generation that experiences it, shaping their character and worldview. Strauss and Howe identify four generational archetypes that recur throughout history: Heroes, Prophets, Nomads, and Artists.

Heroes are born during Unravelings and come of age during Crises, helping society through collective struggles. Millennials are the latest Hero generation. Prophets are born during Highs and raised in relative stability, becoming moral crusaders in young adulthood. Baby Boomers fill this role in our time.

Nomads, shaped by chaotic Awakenings, are independent and pragmatic. Generation X is today’s Nomadic cohort. Finally, Artists are born during Crises, growing up overprotected and becoming empathetic problem-solvers. The Silent Generation and Generation Z represent the most recent examples of this archetype.

Examples

• The "GI Generation" (1901–1924) was a Hero generation, shaping the New Deal and winning World War II.
• Baby Boomers (1943–1960) rebelled against conformity during the Awakening of the 1960s.
• Generation X (1961–1981) grew up amid declining social cohesion, becoming skeptical and self-reliant.

4. The Current Saeculum: Where Are We Now?

According to Strauss and Howe, America entered its most recent "Crisis" around the year 2005, based on patterns observed in earlier cycles. They predicted it would be marked by financial instability, terrorism, pandemics, and institutional distrust, followed by a period of transformation.

Society's response to these challenges determines whether the Crisis will lead to societal collapse or renewal. The authors stress that the outcomes of past crises, such as World War II or the Great Depression, show America's resilience and capacity for reinvention.

Examples

• The 2008 financial crash aligns with previous crisis-phase economic disruptions.
• The COVID-19 pandemic reflects the deadly global challenges typical of saecular winters.
• Political polarization and loss of trust in institutions mirror past Crisis patterns.

5. Rebirth Through Crisis: The Role of Heroes and Artists

Crisis periods are times of great difficulty but also rare opportunities for reinvention. Heroes and Artists are the generational drivers of renewal. Heroes boldly confront societal challenges, while Artists create bridges of empathy for people to connect and heal.

During post-Crisis periods, Heroes often take leadership roles, steering society into the new "High." Artists play supportive roles, crafting the cultural and emotional backbone needed for rebuilding.

Examples

• Millennials are stepping into Hero roles, from leading grassroots movements to influencing corporate culture.
• Generation Z's sensitivity and inclusivity mirror the Silent Generation’s role in stabilizing post-war America.
• President Franklin D. Roosevelt exemplifies a Hero who guided America through the Great Depression.

6. Prepare by Understanding Cycles

Far from leaving individuals powerless, recognizing the patterns of history allows for preparation. During "Unravelings," efforts should focus on building local alliances and improving communities. As a Crisis looms, diverse skills and financial preparation are vital.

This isn't just about survival. By understanding these cycles, individuals and societies can make better decisions, strengthening their capacity to adapt and influence.

Examples

• Diversifying skills and investments can protect against unpredictable economic downturns.
• Local planning initiatives during "Unravelings" can bolster resilience during future Crises.
• Social cohesion efforts in the 1930s helped America endure the Great Depression.

7. The Danger of Ignoring Cycles

Ignoring history’s cycles can lead to perilous outcomes, as societies grow blind to recurring risks. Overconfidence during a "High" can breed hubris, while unchecked decadence during an "Unraveling" may worsen inequality and division.

Acknowledging cycles helps identify crises before they escalate, enabling preventive action instead of reactive measures.

Examples

• Economic complacency in the roaring 1920s directly preceded the Great Depression.
• Rising tensions in the late 1850s foreshadowed the Civil War.
• Post-World War I policies worsened the challenges of the Great Depression.

8. Balance Individualism and Community

The cycle's ebb and flow highlights a recurring tension between individualism and community. Times of "High" lean toward conformity, while "Awakenings" and "Unravelings" celebrate individuality. The balance lies in blending the best of both.

Maintaining this balance helps build a society that respects personal freedoms but stays united in challenging periods.

Examples

• Post-War collaboration enabled infrastructure projects like highways and schools.
• Individual creativity during the 1960s sparked groundbreaking cultural changes.
• Volunteer-led mutual aid efforts during recent crises demonstrate harmony between individual effort and collective action.

9. Hope for the Future

The saecular cycle offers hope. Each Crisis contains the seeds of renewal. As new leaders and visions emerge, societies stumble, learn, and rebuild stronger. Understanding these cycles fills the future with possibilities rather than despair.

Societies that embrace collective responsibility and recognize these patterns have the opportunity to create a brighter, more equitable world.

Examples

• America’s recovery from the Great Depression showcases collective sacrifice and innovation.
• The Civil Rights Movement of the 1960s exemplifies societal learning and moral progress.
• Post-World War II prosperity grew from sacrifices made during the war.

Takeaways

1. Build diverse skills and financial resilience to withstand unpredictable challenges during crises.
2. Strengthen local community cohesion through shared initiatives, improving civic life.
3. Maintain an interconnected family or support network as a safety net during tough times.