The New Silk Roads

Introduction

In "The New Silk Roads," historian Peter Frankopan takes readers on a journey through the changing landscape of global power and influence. Building on his previous work exploring the historical significance of the Silk Roads, Frankopan now turns his attention to the present and future, examining how the countries along these ancient trade routes are reshaping the world order.

The book presents a compelling argument that the center of global power is shifting from the West to the East, with profound implications for economics, politics, and culture. Frankopan challenges readers to reconsider their understanding of current events and future trends by looking at the world from an Eastern perspective.

The Rise of Eastern Economic Power

A New Era of Trophy Hunting

Frankopan begins by drawing a parallel between the past and present. He reminds us of the Grand Tour, a tradition where wealthy Englishmen would travel to Europe, particularly Italy, to acquire cultural treasures and artworks. This practice was a symbol of England's economic and military might during its imperial heyday.

Fast forward to the 21st century, and we see a similar phenomenon, but with a crucial difference: the hunters are no longer Western. Instead, it's the newly wealthy elites from countries like China, Russia, and the Gulf states who are acquiring prestigious Western assets and experiences.

Some notable examples include:

1. Qatar and Russia hosting the FIFA World Cup
2. Russia hosting the Winter Olympics in Sochi
3. The Louvre opening a new museum in Abu Dhabi
4. London's Victoria and Albert Museum expanding to Shenzhen, China

Even iconic British institutions are changing hands:

• Harrods, the luxury department store, now owned by Qatar
• Hamleys, the famous toy shop, acquired by an Indian company
• The Evening Standard newspaper, owned by a Russian businessman

This shift in ownership reflects the changing balance of economic power in the world, with Eastern countries flexing their financial muscles on the global stage.

The Impact on Tourism

The rise of Eastern economic power is not limited to high-profile acquisitions. It's also reshaping the global tourism industry in significant ways:

1. Chinese tourist spending has increased five-fold in the last 30 years, reaching $250 billion annually – twice as much as American tourists spend abroad.

2. This surge in Chinese tourism is forcing the travel industry to adapt, affecting:

   • Airlines and their routes
   • Online booking platforms
   • Hotel room designs
   • Food and beverage offerings in tourist destinations

3. The potential for further growth is immense, as only 1 in 20 Chinese citizens currently hold passports.

These changes highlight how the rise of Eastern economies is not just an abstract concept but a force that's tangibly altering industries and experiences around the world.

Contrasting Approaches: East vs. West

Western Isolation vs. Eastern Cooperation

Frankopan draws a stark contrast between the current political trends in the West and the East:

1. Western Isolation:

   • The rise of nationalist politics in the US and Europe
   • Donald Trump's "America First" policy
   • Brexit and the UK's decision to leave the European Union

2. Eastern Cooperation:

   • Increased collaboration among countries along the historic Silk Roads
   • New infrastructure projects connecting nations
   • Growing trade between Central Asian countries

Examples of Eastern cooperation include:

• A new bridge between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan over the Amu Darya river
• 30% increase in trade between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in 2017
• Doubling of trade between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in early 2018

Multilateral Economic Institutions

While the West seems to be retreating from international cooperation, the East is embracing it through new economic partnerships:

1. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP):

   • Includes Southeast Asian nations, South Korea, China, India, and Japan
   • Combined GDP of around $30 trillion
   • Encompasses 3.5 billion citizens

2. Ongoing negotiations for a comprehensive economic agreement among RCEP members, potentially creating the largest free trade agreement in history

This contrast in approaches highlights how the East is positioning itself for greater economic integration and growth while the West appears to be moving towards fragmentation and isolation.

China's Belt and Road Initiative

Xi Jinping's Vision

In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced his vision for revitalizing the ancient Silk Roads, which has since evolved into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This ambitious project aims to:

1. Deepen trade and economic cooperation between China and its neighbors
2. Revitalize ancient bonds between Central and South Asia
3. Create new trade routes and infrastructure connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa

Scope and Scale

The Belt and Road Initiative is massive in scale:

1. Involves over a thousand projects in nearly 50 nations
2. Encompasses countries in Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Turkey, the Caribbean, and Africa
3. Affects 4.4 billion people, or 63% of the global population
4. Accounts for about 30% of the world's total economic output

China's Goals

Through the BRI, China aims to:

1. Provide hope and opportunity for other nations during a period of global change
2. Fill the leadership vacuum created by the US and Europe's increasingly isolationist policies
3. Demonstrate China's suitability for global leadership
4. Promote international cooperation and dialogue over confrontation

Financing the New Silk Roads

China is backing its vision with substantial financial commitments:

1. The Export-Import Bank of China is financing numerous projects
2. Billions of dollars are being invested in infrastructure, energy, and transportation projects across the BRI countries

This massive investment demonstrates China's commitment to reshaping global trade and influence through economic means.

American Anxieties and Reactions

Unease Over Foreign Ownership

As the global balance of power shifts, many Americans are feeling uneasy about the changing world order:

1. Iconic American firms are being acquired by foreign owners, often from countries along the Silk Roads
2. Examples include the sale of General Electric's Appliance Business to a Chinese company
3. Even culturally significant assets, like the quarry providing marble for American monuments, are changing hands (e.g., the Bin Laden family acquiring an Italian marble company)

Demonization of China

In response to these changes, there's been a growing tendency in the US to blame China:

1. Donald Trump, during his 2016 presidential campaign, accused China of waging "economic war" on America
2. As president, Trump imposed trade tariffs on over a thousand Chinese products, affecting around $60 billion in imports

The Misguided Trade War

Frankopan argues that the US-China trade war is counterproductive:

1. It's likely to hurt American consumers as much as it does Chinese businesses
2. CEOs of major retailers warn that tariffs will drive up prices of household essentials
3. The trade war fails to address the underlying shifts in global economic power

This section highlights the challenges faced by Western powers, particularly the US, in adapting to a world where they no longer hold uncontested economic supremacy.

Middle East Complications

America's Reliance on Saudi Arabia

Despite changes in the global landscape, the US continues to rely heavily on its traditional alliance with Saudi Arabia:

1. The relationship is based on oil wealth and weapons sales
2. During Barack Obama's presidency, Saudi Arabia purchased $112 billion worth of American weapons
3. President Trump has continued to cultivate this relationship, calling Saudi Arabia "a very great friend"

The Qatar Dilemma

However, America's reliance on Saudi Arabia is becoming increasingly complicated due to regional conflicts:

1. Saudi Arabia has imposed a blockade on Qatar
2. Relations between the two Gulf states have deteriorated significantly
3. Saudi Arabia is planning to dig a canal to physically isolate Qatar from the Arabian Peninsula

This situation puts the US in a difficult position:

1. The US has expressed friendship with both Saudi Arabia and Qatar
2. It had planned to supply weapons to both countries
3. The regional conflict forces America to potentially choose sides, risking its relationships and interests in the region

Implications for US Foreign Policy

This situation in the Middle East illustrates the challenges facing US foreign policy in a changing world:

1. The loss of experienced diplomats (two-thirds of long-serving ambassadors left in 2017) has reduced America's foreign policy expertise
2. Reliance on traditional alliances may not be sufficient in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape
3. Regional conflicts among US allies complicate America's strategic positions and economic interests

These complications in the Middle East serve as a microcosm of the broader challenges facing Western powers as they navigate a world where their traditional spheres of influence are being reshaped by emerging powers and regional dynamics.

China's Growing Influence in Europe

European Disharmony

Frankopan highlights how recent trends towards disunity in Europe have created opportunities for China:

1. Brexit and the UK's decision to leave the European Union
2. Rise of anti-EU parties in countries like Hungary and Poland
3. Independence movements in regions like Catalonia and Scotland

This growing disharmony has weakened Europe's ability to present a united front on global issues.

China's Strategic Approach

China has capitalized on this European discord in several ways:

1. Avoiding strong European sanctions over its actions in the South China Sea
2. Using connections with Eurosceptic EU members like Croatia, Greece, and Hungary to influence EU decision-making
3. Cultivating relationships with Eastern and Central European countries through initiatives like the 16+1 forum

The 16+1 Initiative

This Beijing-driven project has become a key tool for China's engagement with Europe:

1. It provides a forum for dialogue between China and 11 EU member states
2. Includes countries from Eastern and Central Europe, such as Bulgaria, Poland, and the Baltic states
3. Offers these countries an alternative to what they perceive as neglect from Western Europe

European Vulnerabilities

China's success in Europe is partly due to existing tensions and frustrations within the EU:

1. Some Eastern European countries feel overlooked by Western Europe
2. There's frustration over delayed EU membership for Balkan states
3. China (and Russia) are stepping into developmental roles that some believe should have been filled by the EU

This section illustrates how China is adeptly maneuvering to increase its influence in Europe, taking advantage of existing divisions and offering alternatives to EU leadership.

The Changing Global Landscape

Shift in Economic Center of Gravity

Frankopan argues that the world's economic center is decisively moving eastward:

1. The rise of China, India, and other Asian economies is reshaping global trade patterns
2. Eastern countries are increasingly driving global economic growth
3. Western dominance in global finance and trade is being challenged

Technological Advancements

The East is not just catching up but often leading in key technological areas:

1. China's investments in artificial intelligence and 5G technology
2. India's growing IT sector and space program
3. South Korea and Japan's continued innovation in electronics and robotics

Cultural Influence

As economic power shifts, so does cultural influence:

1. Growing popularity of Asian pop culture (K-pop, Bollywood)
2. Increasing global interest in Eastern philosophies and practices
3. Rise of Asian fashion and cuisine in Western markets

Geopolitical Realignments

The changing economic landscape is leading to new geopolitical realities:

1. Formation of new alliances and partnerships among Eastern countries
2. Declining influence of traditional Western-led institutions
3. Emergence of new multilateral organizations led by Eastern powers

Implications for the Future

Economic Opportunities and Challenges

The rise of the East presents both opportunities and challenges for the global economy:

1. New markets and investment opportunities in rapidly growing economies
2. Potential for increased global trade and prosperity
3. Challenges for Western businesses to adapt and compete in changing markets

Political Adaptations

Western political systems will need to adapt to the new global reality:

1. Rethinking foreign policy approaches to engage with rising Eastern powers
2. Balancing national interests with the need for global cooperation
3. Addressing domestic concerns about job losses and economic changes

Cultural Exchange and Understanding

As the world becomes more interconnected, there's a growing need for:

1. Increased cross-cultural understanding and communication
2. Education systems that prepare people for a more globally oriented world
3. Bridging cultural divides to foster cooperation and prevent conflicts

Environmental Considerations

The shift in global power also has implications for addressing global challenges:

1. Cooperation between East and West crucial for tackling climate change
2. Balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability
3. Developing and sharing green technologies globally

Conclusion: Navigating the New World Order

Frankopan concludes by emphasizing that the rise of the East and the revitalization of the Silk Roads are not just economic phenomena but represent a fundamental shift in the global order:

1. The era of uncontested Western dominance is coming to an end
2. A more multipolar world is emerging, with power centers in both East and West
3. Success in this new world order will require adaptability, cooperation, and a willingness to embrace change

He argues that rather than resisting these changes, Western nations should:

1. Seek to understand and engage with the rising Eastern powers
2. Adapt their economic and political strategies to the new realities
3. Look for ways to cooperate on global challenges that affect all nations

Frankopan's book serves as both a wake-up call and a guide for navigating this new world. He challenges readers to look beyond their familiar Western-centric worldview and consider the global landscape from an Eastern perspective. By doing so, he suggests, we can better understand the forces shaping our world and prepare for a future that is likely to be increasingly influenced by the nations along the New Silk Roads.

In essence, "The New Silk Roads" is not just about the rise of the East or the decline of the West, but about the emergence of a new global reality. It's a reality that requires fresh thinking, open-mindedness, and a willingness to embrace change. As Frankopan demonstrates throughout the book, those who can adapt to this new world order – whether nations, businesses, or individuals – will be best positioned to thrive in the coming decades.

The book leaves readers with a sense of both excitement and trepidation about the future. It's clear that we are living through a period of significant global transformation, one that will reshape economies, politics, and cultures around the world. By understanding these changes and their historical context, we can better prepare ourselves to navigate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead on the New Silk Roads.