The Next Decade Summary

An empire cannot be managed with sentiment; it requires a firm, unsentimental hand to safeguard its interests, as the United States navigates its dominant but unintended imperial status.

1. The United States operates as an unintended global empire.

The United States stands apart in world history as a global superpower that didn't deliberately set out to become an empire. Unlike Rome or Britain, whose territorial expansions were intentional, America's rise was accidental. Its unparalleled military strength and economic dominance have granted it imperial influence without direct colonization.

This unintended empire faces the same challenges that ancient empires did—balancing power without undermining foundational principles. The sheer scale of US influence sometimes makes it a target, as demonstrated by the September 11, 2001, attacks. These events highlighted how America's dominance on the world stage could render it both a leader and a target.

The president of the United States plays a critical role in managing this global power. Decisions made in the Oval Office ripple through economies, geopolitics, and societies worldwide. The stakes are high, and success lies in pragmatism—aligning with strategic powers while disregarding sentimental notions.

Examples

• The US maintains unchallenged military supremacy among nations.
• The September 11 attacks underscored the US's prominent position in global politics.
• Franklin D. Roosevelt allied with Stalin during WWII to counter the German threat.

2. Economic crises require political solutions more than economic fixes.

Throughout history, economic measures alone have rarely resolved major crises. Instead, political leadership has proven crucial for managing public sentiment and re-establishing order. The 2008 financial crisis, the largest since the Great Depression, reinforced this understanding.

Historical precedents like the 1970s oil crisis or the 1980s real estate collapse demonstrate that economic downturns have lasting implications beyond numbers and markets. Leaders must focus on reassuring the public, demonstrating plan-based leadership, and shifting power dynamics to calm concerns about class or system failures.

For instance, Franklin D. Roosevelt addressed the Great Depression by transferring influence from financial elites to political leaders. This move alleviated anxieties about wealth disparities and warded off sentiments that could destabilize governance, as seen in pre-WWII Europe.

Examples

• The US federal government stepped in to stabilize the real estate crash of the 1980s.
• Roosevelt expanded federal authority during the 1930s to restore confidence in governance.
• The 2008 financial crisis saw governments bailout industries to prevent systemic collapse.

3. US post-9/11 decisions trapped the country in endless wars.

The terror attacks of September 11, 2001, marked a turning point in US foreign policy. Instead of treating it as a tactical but isolated tragedy, the George W. Bush administration turned it into a global "war on terror," creating long-term military entanglements.

The previous US strategy in the Middle East focused on balancing powers locally to secure oil interests. This approach kept local powers like Iran and Iraq at odds, ensuring no single state dominated. However, post-9/11 interventions abandoned that strategy, focusing on eliminating perceived terrorist threats. This shift destabilized the region further and undermined America's larger geopolitical goals.

In Iraq, US actions inadvertently allowed Iran's influence to grow. By toppling Saddam Hussein, Washington removed a Sunni-dominated counterbalance, leading to a pro-Iranian Shiite government in Baghdad. This misstep complicated US exit strategies in the region and tied American forces to seemingly endless military commitments.

Examples

• The United States' destabilization of Iraq gave Iran freedom to expand its regional influence.
• The invasion of Afghanistan overlooked its limited strategic role relative to Pakistan.
• US overreaction to terrorism created more opportunities for other adversaries.

4. Controlling Iran is key to US strategy in the Middle East.

Iran's population, geography, and resources make it a powerful force in the Middle East. With 70 million citizens, it overshadows neighbors like Iraq and Saudi Arabia in size and influence. Moreover, Iran's Shiite majority gives it a spiritual and sectarian link to Iraq, creating a potential Shiite bloc.

Geographically, Iran is nearly impenetrable. Its mountainous terrain and strategic location near the Strait of Hormuz—through which much of the world's oil supply passes—give it a commanding position. Any aggressive moves against Iran risk global economic consequences, particularly skyrocketing oil prices.

Despite years of antagonism, a reluctant truce between Iran and the United States might be inevitable. Both countries have overlapping enemies in radical Sunni groups, offering a foundation for pragmatic cooperation, even if outright friendship is out of reach.

Examples

• Iran's population dwarfs regional neighbors like Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
• Blocking the Strait of Hormuz could cripple global oil exports.
• Despite enmity, both Iran and the US oppose groups like the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

5. Turkey is the rising challenger in the Middle East.

As Iran builds its influence, Turkey emerges as its rival in the region. With 70 million people, a growing economy, and the strongest regional military, Turkey has the resources to counterbalance Iran's ambitions. It's also a Sunni-majority nation, aligning it with many Arab states wary of Iran's Shiite leadership.

Turkey's aspirations extend beyond the Middle East. It sees the region’s oil resources as an opportunity to reduce reliance on Russian energy imports. This incentivizes Turkey to assert dominance and prevent Iran from becoming the uncontested leader.

Given Turkey's strategic location and resources, the United States views it as an invaluable partner. Supporting Turkey helps maintain the Middle Eastern balance of power, safeguarding both American and regional interests.

Examples

• Turkey is the 17th largest global economy with robust military capabilities.
• Arab Gulf countries favor Turkey over Iran as a Sunni-majority ally.
• Turkish energy policies aim to reduce dependency on Russian imports.

6. Pakistan matters more than Afghanistan to US strategy.

The United States once poured resources into Afghanistan, but Pakistan holds greater strategic value. As a nuclear power bordering both India and China, Pakistan is a crucial piece in the regional balance. In contrast, Afghanistan lacks similar geopolitical influence or strategic importance.

Pakistan's long-standing rivalry with India has kept both powers in check. To prevent India's unchecked dominance, the United States needs a stable Pakistan. Concluding the war in Afghanistan and redirecting resources toward Pakistan’s military and political institutions would better serve US interests.

Moreover, Pakistan can indirectly control Afghanistan; a strong Pakistan ensures that Afghanistan’s influence remains neutered without direct US intervention. This approach allows the United States to exit Afghanistan while still maintaining strategic footholds in the region.

Examples

• Pakistan’s tension with India helps prevent either nation from dominating the region.
• Afghanistan’s internal instability has limited impact on global US interests.
• Supporting Pakistan strengthens its role as a counterbalance to rising Indian power.

7. Russia re-emerges on the global stage.

After the fall of the USSR, Russia’s presence faded. However, under Vladimir Putin, it has slowly regained its influence. Putin rebuilt the military and repositioned Russia as an energy-exporting nation, emphasizing oil and gas reserves as its economic backbone.

Despite this progress, Russia remains economically fragile. Its reliance on energy exports limits long-term growth potential. To remain relevant, Russia seeks alliances with Europe while distancing itself from US influence.

A Germany-Russia partnership could challenge US dominance, specifically because their complementary resources—Russia's energy and Germany's technology—create a formidable bloc. To counter this, the United States will deepen alliances with countries like Poland, situated between these two powers.

Examples

• Putin revitalized Russia's global image by prioritizing military modernization.
• Germany relies on Russian natural gas, creating mutual dependencies.
• Poland presents an ideal US ally to impede German-Russian collaboration.

8. European Union unity will continue to waver.

The European Union faces internal divides, exacerbated by the 2008 financial crisis. Germany, Europe’s strongest economy, emerged relatively unscathed while weaker neighbors like Greece and Spain struggled. This imbalance strained relationships between member states.

The EU’s reliance on confederation, rather than full integration, limits its cohesion. Each country retains unique policies, currencies, and national identities. The fading Soviet threat, once a unifying force, has further reduced the sense of shared purpose among member states.

The United States benefits from these divisions, using them to counter a potential Russo-German collaboration. Playing into existing rifts ensures that neither Europe nor Russia grows too powerful.

Examples

• Germany's outsize financial influence isolates it from other EU countries.
• Nations like the UK have already exited shared systems, weakening EU unity.
• Discord among EU members provides openings for external powers like the US.

9. The United States shapes the coming decade globally.

The next decade will be characterized by America’s ability to maneuver its imperial power, balancing alliances and confronting adversaries. Whether dealing with Iran, Pakistan, or Russia, the United States must adapt strategically to preserve its dominance in a shifting geopolitical environment.

Historically, empires succeed when they balance their internal principles with external pragmatism. Leaders must prioritize security without alienating their domestic populations—a challenging but necessary task. American policies in energy, trade, and military alliances will place it at the center of global events.

Countries from the Middle East to Europe will shape their strategies around US actions, which remain the defining force of the modern world.

Examples

• America's oil independence is reshaping its relationships in the Middle East.
• US alliances in Europe focus on neutralizing Russian ambitions.
• Future peace agreements will often rely on US mediation or coercion.

Takeaways

1. Build policies rooted in pragmatism, prioritizing long-term national interests over temporary alliances or sentimentality.
2. Use historical context to guide future decisions, understanding that the past often provides replicable lessons.
3. Focus on preemptive strategies to maintain global balances of power and prevent rival coalitions from emerging.