The Next Decade

In "The Next Decade," geopolitical analyst George Friedman offers a fascinating glimpse into the future of global politics and international relations. As the founder of Stratfor, a leading private intelligence company, Friedman brings his expertise to bear on the complex web of geopolitical forces shaping our world. This book explores how the United States, as the world's dominant superpower, will navigate the challenges and opportunities of the coming decade.

Friedman argues that the United States has become an "unintended empire," wielding immense global influence without deliberately seeking to build an imperial system. This unique position brings both power and responsibility, forcing American leaders to make difficult decisions that will impact the entire world. The author examines key regions and countries, offering predictions about how their relationships with the United States will evolve in the near future.

The United States as an Unintended Empire

The Challenges of Imperial Power

Friedman begins by discussing the United States' position as the world's sole superpower. He argues that the country has inadvertently become an empire, with influence and responsibilities far beyond its borders. This status brings unique challenges:

1. Maintaining a balance between republican values and imperial power
2. Protecting American interests while managing global expectations
3. Dealing with threats that target the U.S. as a symbol of global dominance

The author emphasizes that future U.S. presidents will need to wield this power wisely, often making difficult and morally ambiguous decisions to protect American interests.

The Role of the President

In Friedman's view, the U.S. president is the most powerful political figure in the world. The decisions made by American leaders have far-reaching consequences, affecting billions of lives across the globe. To effectively manage the country's imperial status, presidents must:

1. Adopt an unsentimental approach to foreign policy
2. Identify and neutralize the most dangerous enemies
3. Build necessary coalitions, even with unsavory partners
4. Be willing to abandon outdated alliances when they no longer serve American interests

Friedman argues that successful presidents will need to follow the pragmatic example of leaders like Franklin D. Roosevelt, who formed alliances with figures like Joseph Stalin to defeat greater threats.

The Impact of Recent Events

The 2008 Financial Crisis

Friedman identifies the 2008 financial crisis as one of two major events that will shape the coming decade. He draws parallels to previous economic downturns, such as:

1. The 1970s oil crisis and municipal bond market collapse
2. The 1980s savings and loan crisis

The author argues that the most significant consequences of these crises are political rather than economic. He predicts that the coming years will see:

1. A rise in economic nationalism
2. Increased state intervention in markets
3. A shift of power from financial elites to political elites

Friedman emphasizes that successful management of economic crises depends more on public perception than on specific economic policies. Leaders must convince the public that they have a plan, even if the actual solutions are complex and long-term.

The Aftermath of September 11th

The second major event shaping the coming decade is the U.S. response to the September 11th terrorist attacks. Friedman argues that the Bush administration made a critical error by abandoning the traditional strategy of balancing power in the Middle East. Instead, they launched a "war on terror" that was disproportionate to the actual threat posed by terrorism.

This shift in policy has led to several unintended consequences:

1. The United States became trapped in long-term military engagements
2. Other potential enemies were given opportunities to advance their interests
3. The balance of power in the Middle East was disrupted, particularly between Iran and Iraq

Friedman contends that the next decade will require a complete rethinking of U.S. policy in the Middle East to address these issues.

The Middle East: A New Balance of Power

Iran's Central Role

Friedman identifies Iran as the new geopolitical center of gravity in the Middle East. Several factors contribute to Iran's importance:

1. Its large population (70 million) compared to neighbors like Iraq (30 million) and Saudi Arabia (27 million)
2. Its strategic location and mountainous borders, which make it difficult to invade
3. Its Shiite majority, which gives it influence over other Shiite populations in the region

The author argues that past U.S. attempts to destabilize Iran have failed, and that a direct military confrontation would be counterproductive. Instead, he predicts that a reluctant truce between the United States and Iran is inevitable.

The Rise of Turkey

As the United States seeks to counterbalance Iran's growing influence, Friedman predicts that Turkey will emerge as a key ally in the region. He cites several reasons for Turkey's potential rise:

1. Its large population (about 70 million) and strong economy
2. Its powerful military, one of the strongest in the region and Europe
3. Its strategic location between Europe and the Middle East
4. Its Sunni Muslim majority, which makes it attractive to Arab states seeking protection from Iran

Friedman argues that Turkey's ascension to power is in the best interests of the United States, as it can help stabilize the region and counterbalance Iranian influence.

The Future of Iraq and Afghanistan

The author predicts that the U.S. intervention in Iraq will ultimately prove to have been a strategic mistake. By supporting Iraqi Shiites in their rise to power, the United States inadvertently helped create a pro-Iranian government. Friedman suggests that finding a way to withdraw troops from Iraq without leaving Iran unchallenged will be a major challenge in the coming decade.

As for Afghanistan, Friedman argues that the country is of secondary strategic importance compared to neighboring Pakistan. He predicts that the war in Afghanistan will end similarly to the Vietnam War, with a negotiated peace agreement that ultimately allows insurgent forces to take control of the country.

The Importance of Pakistan

Friedman contends that Pakistan, rather than Afghanistan, should be the real focus of U.S. foreign policy in the region. He cites several reasons for this:

1. Pakistan's strategic location between India and Afghanistan
2. Its nuclear capabilities
3. The ongoing tension between Pakistan and India

The author argues that maintaining a balance of power between Pakistan and India is crucial for U.S. interests in the region. To achieve this, he suggests that the United States should:

1. End its war in Afghanistan to relieve pressure on Pakistan
2. Help Pakistan consolidate its power and build a more sophisticated military
3. Use Pakistan as a counterbalance to both India and Afghanistan

Friedman predicts that jihadist forces will likely re-emerge in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, regardless of U.S. military presence in the region.

Russia's Resurgence

Putin's Strategy

Friedman discusses Russia's return to the center of the international stage under Vladimir Putin's leadership. He outlines Putin's strategy for restoring Russian power:

1. Emphasizing the importance of a strong state
2. Rebuilding the Russian military
3. Focusing on natural resource exports to boost the economy

While this strategy has been partially successful, Friedman argues that Russia will need to find a new path forward in the coming decade.

Russia's Relationship with the West

The author predicts that Russia will seek strategic alliances with Western countries, particularly Germany, to strengthen its position. He cites the following factors:

1. Russia's need for German technology
2. Germany's dependence on Russian natural gas
3. The potential for a rift between Europe and the United States

Friedman argues that while Russia's expansion doesn't directly threaten U.S. interests, a strong collaboration between Russia and Europe could pose a challenge to American global dominance.

The Role of Poland

To counter the potential Russian-European alliance, Friedman suggests that the United States will likely strengthen its relationship with Poland. He cites several reasons for Poland's strategic importance:

1. Its location between Germany and Russia
2. Its historical tensions with both countries
3. Its willingness to align with U.S. interests

The author predicts that the United States will support Poland through technology transfers and by helping to discredit Russia in the region.

The Future of the European Union

Challenges Facing the EU

Friedman identifies two major problems facing the European Union in the coming decade:

1. Determining the nature of its relationship with a resurgent Russia
2. Deciding how to position Germany, the strongest European economy, within the Union

He argues that these issues could potentially revive the geopolitical tensions that led to two world wars in the 20th century.

The Impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis

The author contends that the 2008 economic crisis exposed weaknesses in the European Union's structure. He cites several factors that highlight the fragility of European unity:

1. Germany's emergence from the crisis relatively unscathed, creating an imbalance with its neighbors
2. Disagreements over bailout measures for weaker economies
3. The lack of a unified European defense policy

Friedman predicts that these tensions will lead to a weakening of the European Union in the coming years.

U.S. Strategy in Europe

To maintain its global dominance, Friedman argues that the United States should:

1. Play on the discord within the European Union
2. Hinder any potential European-Russian rapprochement
3. Split the Franco-German bloc to limit the power of a united Europe

The author predicts that while the European Union will not disappear entirely, some members may leave the eurozone, and the lack of united military forces will prevent the EU from becoming a true global power.

The Changing Global Landscape

The Decline of Traditional Alliances

Friedman argues that the United States will need to reassess its commitment to traditional alliances such as NATO, the United Nations, and the International Monetary Fund. He suggests that these organizations may no longer serve American interests as effectively as they once did.

The Rise of New Powers

The author predicts that new regional powers will emerge to challenge U.S. dominance in various parts of the world. In addition to the previously mentioned Turkey and Iran, he discusses the potential rise of:

1. Brazil in South America
2. India in South Asia
3. Japan in East Asia

Friedman argues that the United States will need to develop strategies to manage these rising powers and maintain its global influence.

The Future of China

While many analysts focus on China's potential to challenge U.S. dominance, Friedman takes a more cautious view. He argues that China faces significant internal challenges, including:

1. Regional economic disparities
2. Political instability
3. Demographic pressures

The author predicts that these issues may limit China's ability to project power globally in the coming decade.

The Role of Technology and Information

Cybersecurity and Warfare

Friedman discusses the growing importance of cybersecurity and the potential for cyber warfare in the coming decade. He argues that the United States will need to:

1. Develop more robust cyber defenses
2. Create offensive cyber capabilities to deter potential adversaries
3. Navigate the complex ethical and legal issues surrounding cyber operations

The Impact of Social Media and Information Technology

The author explores how advances in information technology and the rise of social media will affect geopolitics. He predicts that:

1. Governments will struggle to control the flow of information
2. Non-state actors will gain more influence through online platforms
3. Disinformation campaigns will become increasingly sophisticated

Friedman argues that managing these challenges will be crucial for maintaining stability and protecting U.S. interests in the coming decade.

The Future of Energy and Climate Change

The Shift Away from Oil Dependency

Friedman discusses the potential impact of changing energy dynamics on global politics. He predicts that:

1. The United States will become less dependent on Middle Eastern oil
2. New energy technologies will emerge, potentially disrupting traditional power structures
3. Countries heavily reliant on oil exports may face economic and political instability

Addressing Climate Change

The author explores how climate change may affect geopolitics in the coming decade. He argues that:

1. Climate-related disasters could lead to increased migration and regional conflicts
2. Efforts to combat climate change may create new economic opportunities and challenges
3. International cooperation on climate issues could reshape global alliances

Friedman suggests that the United States will need to balance its economic interests with the need to address climate change and its potential consequences.

Conclusion: The Challenges Ahead

In conclusion, Friedman emphasizes that the coming decade will be a critical period for the United States as it navigates its role as an unintended empire. He argues that American leaders will need to:

1. Make difficult decisions to protect U.S. interests while managing global expectations
2. Adapt to changing power dynamics in key regions like the Middle East, Europe, and Asia
3. Address emerging challenges such as cybersecurity, climate change, and the rise of new technologies

The author stresses that maintaining American dominance will require a combination of pragmatism, strategic thinking, and the ability to form new alliances while abandoning outdated ones. Ultimately, Friedman predicts that the United States will remain the world's dominant power in the coming decade, but its leaders will face increasingly complex challenges in managing this role.

As we look to the future, "The Next Decade" provides a thought-provoking analysis of the geopolitical forces shaping our world. While not all of Friedman's predictions may come to pass, his insights offer a valuable framework for understanding the complex interplay of global politics, economics, and strategy that will define the years to come.