Why do foolish times seem to follow good ones, and can we break the cycle to create a better future?
1. The Story of Human Evolution on a Page
Human history spans 1,000 "imaginary pages," with the final one covering just the last 250 years. This idea demonstrates how rapidly everything has changed in our recent timeline. The spike in technology and societal progress in the newest “page” far outpaces anything humanity has experienced before.
The bulk of humanity’s existence was spent as hunter-gatherers, with life defined by survival, small tribes, and limited technology. Then came the agricultural revolution about 10 pages from the end, leading to the build-out of civilizations, writing, and trade. However, it’s the final page—the modern age—that has utterly redefined human life.
This final page is marked by technological leaps, from the Industrial Revolution to the Internet. These rapid changes have created immense possibilities, like a technological utopia, but also great risks, including social decay. The question now is whether humanity can manage the pace of these changes responsibly.
Examples
- The printing press transformed societies over centuries, yet the internet has reshaped the globe in decades.
- Inventions like electricity and antibiotics are recent but revolutionized lives immediately.
- Tribal thinking, a relic of earlier eras, now exists in a highly connected world due to social media.
2. Our Two Minds: Primitive Vs. Higher
Humans have dual minds. The primitive mind is driven by instincts for survival, while the higher mind fosters rational thinking and objective analysis. Life often wavers between these two competing forces.
The primitive mind evolved to keep us alive, but it was meant for simpler times—avoiding predators and gathering food. Now we navigate a world it wasn’t designed for, filled with abstract problems like politics and climate change. Here the higher mind becomes essential, giving us tools to analyze, adapt, and solve issues.
However, these two minds are in constant tension. Imagine choosing between eating a bag of candy immediately (primitive mind’s craving) and weighing long-term health consequences (higher mind’s logic). Similarly, in modern debates, people often reason emotionally rather than intellectually, leading to low-rung thinking.
Examples
- Choosing fast food over home-cooked meals often stems from the primitive urge to satisfy hunger quickly.
- Tribal behavior in politics shows the primitive mind seeking safety in groups.
- Scientific inquiry can elevate us beyond emotions, prioritizing evidence over instinct.
3. The Four Rungs of Thinking
Think of intellectual engagement as a ladder, with four rungs representing varying levels of thought control by the higher or primitive mind. The higher you go, the more reasoned and objective your thinking becomes.
At the top rung, individuals adopt a scientific mindset, prioritizing evidence and being willing to revise their beliefs. The second rung reflects partisanship, where someone respects evidence but prefers their “team” to win. The third rung is argumentative, resembling a lawyer defending a point, no matter how illogical. The bottom rung is fanatical, where only your beliefs matter and all disagreement feels like an attack.
Most of society operates on the lower two rungs today. Instead of exploring ideas openly, people cling to tribal ideologies or refuse debates. Still, understanding the ladder highlights not what people believe but how they process and uphold those beliefs.
Examples
- Scientists generating experiments reflect the top rung, constantly testing ideas.
- Sports fans cheering despite bad calls are second-rung thinkers driven by loyalty.
- Conspiracy theorists ignoring inconsistencies in their logic display third-rung thinking.
4. Tribalism in America
Tribalism is fueled by our need to find an “us versus them.” Historically, adversity—from wars to external threats—united societies. However, absent a common external enemy, this instinct has turned inward in America, polarizing the nation.
Partisan divides intensified post-mid-1900s. As global conflicts subsided, collective unity faded. Today, Americans increasingly sort themselves into ideological camps, viewing the opposite side as "the enemy." This tribalism aligns strongly with political identity, creating echo chambers where disagreement is avoided and opinions become more extreme.
Social groupings further reinforce this, with people choosing to live, work, or spend time in homogenous communities. This geographic and ideological polarization compounds the problem and fuels hyper partisanship.
Examples
- The rise of politically aligned news networks targets specific demographics.
- Geographic migration aligns blue states versus red states, concentrating viewpoints.
- Social media bubbles amplify tribal behaviors by feeding users tailored opinions.
5. The Role of Algorithms in Tribal Echo Chambers
Technology has amplified echo chambers by delivering content that suits users' preexisting beliefs. Algorithms fuel tribalism by spoon-feeding perspectives, deepening divisive thinking while shutting out balance.
Social media platforms prioritize user engagement, which often means pushing stories or opinions users already agree with. This prevents exposure to diverse ideas and reinforces biases. Even without active searching, content reaching users creates a warped version of reality for each person, leading to "separate realities" for different groups.
This digital landscape worsens tribal conflict, as seen in national and global events. Instead of encouraging analysis, algorithms reward content that provokes emotional reactions or solidifies the "us versus them" divide.
Examples
- Different news feeds tailored to liberals versus conservatives on Facebook show vast disparities.
- Emotionally charged false news stories often spread faster than evidence-based facts.
- Political ads and posts micro-target people based on their already held values.
6. Fundamentalist Thinking on the Right
On the political right, low-rung thinking has manifested as Republican Fundamentalism. This worldview simplifies complex problems into black-and-white scenarios and often leans on fear-driven narratives.
Fear-based politics became more visible during the Cold War. However, it reached a fever pitch with Trump, whose rise to power demonstrated the pull of low-rung loyalty over rationality. Actions like storming the Capitol embodied fanatical zeal rather than reasoned dissent or discourse.
Leaders in these movements often reject criticism, treating it as betrayal. This mindset leaves little room for collaboration or open-minded discussions that could address the actual issues at play.
Examples
- Simplistic slogans like "Build the Wall" avoid broader conversations about immigration reform.
- The birther conspiracy against Barack Obama reflects low-rung logic, dismissing evidence.
- Events like "Stop the Steal" rallies highlight how fear and division drive loyalty.
7. Fundamentalist Thinking on the Left
Similarly, the left has its own form of low-rung thinking: Social Justice Fundamentalism. While the ideals of social justice are rooted in correcting inequality, fundamentalism turns those causes into rigid frameworks.
Social Justice Fundalists often view societal issues—such as patriarchy or racism—as ever-present and indisputable forces. Instead of asking “if” a problem occurred, they assume its existence, leaving no room for deeper analysis. While this approach can bring attention to real injustices, the zealotry discourages collaboration and stifles debate.
People within these groups who deviate from “core beliefs” are often ostracized, further isolating the movement. This undermines efforts to solve inequalities because it alienates potential allies who might contribute different perspectives.
Examples
- “Cancel culture” punishes even minor ideological missteps, shutting down dialogue.
- Unwavering focus on “trigger warnings” can prevent meaningful discussion in classrooms.
- Movements that reject all nuance in historical context reflect fundamentalist tendencies.
8. Moving from Foolish Times to Wise Ones
Societies often follow a repeating cycle: wise generations create prosperity, but comfort breeds foolishness, leading to crises requiring wisdom again. Avoiding this cycle requires actively fostering clear thinking and reasoned actions.
Urban suggests that we have, in many ways, entered a foolish phase driven by tribalism and polarization. Yet he’s optimistic, believing that discontent with the current chaos can lead to a push for renewed rationality. Movements that prioritize open discussion and humility could rewrite this trend for better times ahead.
Recognizing the cycle is only the first step. Breaking it hinges on the courage to speak truth, challenge norms, and stay aligned with higher-rung thinking approaches.
Examples
- Post-World War II, the need for unity paved way for decades of American growth and innovation.
- Civil rights advances followed periods of great social inequality and unrest.
- Increased calls for bipartisan collaboration signal exhaustion with hyper-polarization.
9. The Power of Individual Action
Every person can contribute to change by adopting higher-rung thinking. The process begins with internal awareness of one’s beliefs, then expressing them respectfully and encouraging open dialogue.
Start by questioning your beliefs through relentless “why” exercises. Challenge yourself to climb the thinking ladder by favoring logic over comfort. As individuals embrace this practice, group behavior evolves, promoting balanced discourse on divisive topics.
Moreover, stepping outside of echo chambers—both physical and digital—can build bridges between groups. Engaging with other viewpoints honestly fosters mutual respect and understanding.
Examples
- A self-audit of political views can expose unnecessary bias or tribal influences.
- Collaborating with coworkers with opposing views helps create productive solutions.
- Shared projects, like community initiatives, unite people across ideological divides.
Takeaways
- Regularly examine your beliefs by asking "why" until you understand their origins and supporting evidence.
- Step outside your echo chamber by engaging with voices and communities that challenge your thinking.
- Speak up for what you believe, even when it’s uncomfortable, but do so respectfully and with an open mind.