Why The West Rules – For Now Summary

Why does the West dominate, and will it always be this way? Ian Morris explores this question by blending history, geography, and sociology, tracing the rise and fall of civilizations over millennia.

1. Theories of Short-Term Luck Versus Long-Term Superiority Fall Apart

Different theories attempt to explain Western dominance, but neither short-term chances nor ideas of historical inevitability adequately work. Short-term accidents suggest the West's rise was due to historical happenstance, while lock-in theories propose that the West had inherent advantages that preordained its dominance. Neither fully accounts for the complex interplay of factors that shaped history.

For example, ideas that Western humans had superior creativity based on cave art fail when analyzed. The art emerged during the Ice Age only because people lived in caves for warmth, not because of innate European ingenuity. Once the Ice Age ended, so did the prevalence of such art. Similarly, theories rooted in genetic superiority 600,000 years ago ignore the fact that Homo sapiens globally replaced other species around 300,000 years ago.

The interplay of geography, sociology, and biology better explains history. For instance, both Eastern and Western civilizations evolved under similar pressures and opportunities. When studied, their social development scores are remarkably close, invalidating notions of one being inherently superior to the other.

Examples

• Ice Age cave paintings emerged in Europe because of practical needs, not cultural superiority.
• Genetic theories ignore Homo sapiens' dominance over both Eastern Homo erectus and Western Homo antecessor.
• Both East and West rose due to shared basic needs for resources, not because of fixed advantages.

2. Social Development in East and West Shows Parallel Growth

When assessing social progress scientifically, the East and West exhibit similar patterns of growth over millennia. Ian Morris constructs a social development index based on energy use, urbanization, information sharing, and military capacities.

From 14,000 BCE onward, both regions follow near-parallel trajectories of gradual progress. The West slightly outpaces the East in energy capture, urbanization, and warfare, but not by much. Both experienced a slow rise for thousands of years. However, social development accelerated in the 18th century with the rise of the Industrial Revolution, giving the West a significant boost.

The data demonstrates a lack of clear and lasting gaps. For instance, while Europe had maps that enabled easier maritime navigation, China’s centralized bureaucracies maintained comparable organizational efficiencies. Societal advancements were driven by shared human challenges, not isolated traditions.

Examples

• The West’s early advances in agriculture came from available resources, not inherent ingenuity.
• China's centralized systems rivaled Western market economies in efficiency.
• Both regions mirrored each other in key progress markers until the 18th century.

3. Geography Gave the West an Early Head Start

After the Ice Age, geography played an enormous role in shaping the early successes of the West. Fertile lands in Mesopotamia, known as the Hilly Flanks, were home to plants and animals that could be domesticated easily. Wheat, barley, sheep, and goats—all essential to early agriculture—were native to these regions.

Western regions began farming between 10,000 and 11,000 years ago, up to 2,000 years earlier than Eastern regions like China. This allowed Western civilizations to establish settled societies, grow crops, and sustain larger populations earlier. Meanwhile, China’s geography didn’t naturally host as many domesticable species, delaying similar progress.

This geographic advantage didn’t imply cultural superiority but offered opportunities to develop agriculture and civilizations sooner. Progress continued as societies collaborated and innovated based on the resources available to them.

Examples

• Cereals like wheat and barley were readily available in Mesopotamia, unlike in Eastern lands.
• Domesticated animals, such as sheep and goats, enabled farming communities in the West to grow earlier.
• Agricultural growth in the Hilly Flanks led to the rise of Western societies long before China’s development.

4. Collapse and Recovery Balanced West-East Progress

By 1200 BCE, the West had a commanding lead over the East, but a crisis closed this gap. Known as the Late Bronze Age collapse, this period of chaos affected Western empires like Mycenaean Greece and Egypt, causing famine, death, and the downfall of centralized states.

Meanwhile, Eastern societies, such as those in China, advanced during this time. By 1000 BCE, the differences between Eastern and Western social development had nearly vanished. Both regions devised more centralized high-end states, with administrative and tax-collecting systems that improved governance.

For example, the Assyrian empire in the West rivaled China’s Zhou dynasty in the East during this time. Both regions demonstrated their ability to overcome crises and realign societal structures either through centralized control or organized trade.

Examples

• The Late Bronze Age collapse shattered economies and cities across the West.
• High-end states formed in both Assyria (West) and Zhou China (East) after 1000 BCE.
• By 1000 BCE, social development scores between East and West were almost identical.

5. Empires Rose and Fell in Both Hemispheres

Powerful empires emerged during the first millennium BCE in both East and West, including Rome and Han China. Both established strong bureaucracies, military capacities, and expanded through trade and conquest. However, neither empire achieved permanent dominance.

While the Roman Empire expanded across Europe and the Mediterranean, the Han dynasty controlled most of China. Their structures were remarkably similar—they relied on literate elites, fertile agricultural systems, and interconnected trade networks. Empires in both regions eventually fragmented due to pressures from external invaders and internal disintegration.

This cycle of rise and fall shows that geography and resources shaped opportunities, but maintaining large empires required consistent innovation and adaptation.

Examples

• The Roman Empire and Han China faced similar threats like nomadic invasions.
• Both empires disintegrated into smaller states after initial collapses.
• Urban centers and trade routes played critical roles in sustaining early empires.

6. Western Agriculture and Climate Spurred Development

Climate shifts like the Medieval Warm Period around 1100 CE had major effects in both regions. In Europe, warmer and wetter conditions allowed for better crop yields and expanding populations. This climate advantage helped the West begin its recovery after centuries of struggles.

In contrast, China was already flourishing under the Tang and Song dynasties during this time, with remarkable economic and cultural achievements. However, it wasn’t until the rebirth of trade and interconnectivity in the West, partly through interactions with the Muslim world, that Europe’s fortunes changed.

Dynamic exchanges between East and West during this time laid the groundwork for later leaps, like the Renaissance, that would eventually disrupt this balance again.

Examples

• Medieval Warm Period allowed agriculture to expand in Europe.
• Trade routes delivered Chinese innovations, like gunpowder and printing, to Europe.
• Europe's Renaissance emerged through preserved works from Chinese and Islamic scholars.

7. The Renaissance Prepared the West for Global Expansion

The Western Renaissance marked an intellectual and cultural turning point that set the stage for global exploration. Scholars rediscovered Greek and Roman knowledge and combined it with Chinese and Arab discoveries, creating innovations that would bring significant advantages.

Advances in navigation, shipbuilding, and science allowed explorers like Columbus to begin exploiting new trading routes. China, despite its technological advancements, did not play a similar exploratory role, partly due to its geographic disadvantage in reaching the Americas.

Global trade firmly placed the West in the economic lead, and discoveries in science and innovation further boosted its social development.

Examples

• European explorers like Columbus accessed distant markets using new navigational technology.
• Western science, inspired by rediscovered ancient texts, put innovations into practice.
• China’s geographic distance from the Americas left it less involved in early global trade.

8. The Industrial Revolution Upended History

The Industrial Revolution marked an unprecedented turn in the West’s favor. Steam power, developed by James Watt in the 18th century, introduced machinery that revolutionized productivity. Unlike manual or animal labor, steam engines allowed for scalable, powerful, and movable production.

Economic growth exploded as Western nations began mass-producing goods and dominating global markets. The East, still rooted in traditional production systems, could not compete during this time, giving the West its largest lead in social development.

Steam engines led to the creation of railroads, factories, and other technologies that completely reshaped global commerce and society.

Examples

• James Watt’s steam engine transformed industries relying on manual labor.
• Transcontinental railroads connected distant markets within Western countries.
• The West’s invention of communication systems, like the telegraph, accelerated globalization.

9. The East’s Recovery Strongly Challenges Western Rule

The last century has shown a clear shift. China, referred to as the “workshop of the world,” saw its industrial development spike as state reforms enabled explosive economic growth. While the United States and Europe retained innovation dominance, the gap began narrowing.

China has rapidly increased its share in global economic production. Predictions indicate that by 2025-2027, it could surpass the US economically. Even though the West still leads in areas like military power, the East continues to strengthen.

These trends suggest another shift reminiscent of earlier periods when the East outpaced the West.

Examples

• China’s privatization reforms led to annual growth rates as high as 7.5%.
• U.S.-China production ratios shrank dramatically from 1970 to 2000.
• Western powers remain strong innovators, but the production landscape is shifting.

Takeaways

1. Study how environment and geography shape long-term trends in civilizations to better understand global power dynamics.
2. Stay adaptive to global shifts and invest in knowledge-sharing systems that bridge cultural and economic divides.
3. Monitor technological and societal innovations, as they often signal where the next centers of power will emerge.