Introduction
In "Why The West Rules – For Now," historian Ian Morris takes on the ambitious task of explaining the dominance of Western civilization in the modern world. This book offers a fascinating journey through human history, exploring the complex interplay of geography, biology, and sociology that has shaped the development of Eastern and Western societies over thousands of years.
Morris challenges common theories about Western dominance and presents a nuanced view of historical progress. He argues that neither long-term cultural superiority nor short-term luck can fully explain the current state of affairs. Instead, he proposes that the ebb and flow of power between East and West has been driven by a complex set of factors that have played out over millennia.
The book's central question is not just about why the West rules today, but also about how long this dominance might last. Morris uses a unique social development index to compare Eastern and Western civilizations throughout history, providing readers with a data-driven perspective on human progress.
As we delve into the key ideas of this book, we'll explore the origins of Eastern and Western civilizations, trace their parallel development, and examine the crucial turning points that have shaped our world. We'll also look at Morris's predictions for the future and consider the implications of a potential shift in global power dynamics.
Debunking Common Theories of Western Dominance
Morris begins by addressing and debunking popular theories that attempt to explain Western dominance. He identifies two main schools of thought: "short-term accident" theories and "long-term lock-in" theories.
Short-term accident theories suggest that Western rule is simply a result of recent historical luck. These theories often point to events like the Industrial Revolution or European colonization as the primary reasons for Western dominance. While these events certainly played a role, Morris argues that they don't tell the whole story.
On the other hand, long-term lock-in theories propose that some critical factor in the distant past guaranteed Western dominance. These theories often rely on problematic ideas of genetic or cultural superiority. Morris takes particular issue with these theories, as they can be used to justify racist or ethnocentric views.
One example of a long-term lock-in theory based on biology claims that Western genetic superiority was established 600,000 years ago with the development of two distinct species: Eastern Homo erectus and Western Homo antecessor. Morris points out that this argument is flawed because both species were replaced by Homo sapiens around 300,000 years ago, making any genetic differences irrelevant.
Cultural lock-in theories fare no better under Morris's scrutiny. He uses the example of cave paintings found in Altamira, Spain, dating back 30,000 years. Some theorists use this as evidence of unique Western creativity. However, Morris explains that the prevalence of cave art in Europe was likely due to the Ice Age forcing people to spend more time in caves, rather than any inherent cultural superiority.
By dismantling these common explanations, Morris sets the stage for a more nuanced understanding of historical development. He argues that to truly understand why the West rules today, we need to look at the dynamic interplay between biology, sociology, and geography over a much longer timespan.
The Similar Paths of Eastern and Western Development
One of the most intriguing aspects of Morris's analysis is his demonstration that Eastern and Western historical development has been remarkably similar. To make this comparison, he first defines what he means by "East" and "West."
For Morris, the West began in the Fertile Crescent of the Middle East and Egypt, expanding westward from there. The East encompasses the civilizations that developed between the Yellow and Yangtze rivers in China. This clear definition allows for a more precise comparison between the two regions.
To measure and compare social development, Morris created a comprehensive index based on four fundamental characteristics:
Energy capture: This measures consumption per person in kilocalories per day, reflecting a society's ability to extract energy from plants and animals for food and other purposes.
Urbanism: This represents organizational capacity, primarily measured by population figures.
Information processing: This assesses a society's ability to communicate and transfer knowledge, such as through writing systems or technological advancements.
War-making capacity: This measures a society's ability to harness its resources for military purposes.
Using this index, Morris traces the development of Eastern and Western societies from 14,000 BCE onward. Surprisingly, he finds that the patterns of development in both regions are remarkably similar. Both East and West show a slow, gradual increase in social development for thousands of years, followed by a dramatic upward surge beginning in the 18th century with the onset of the Industrial Revolution.
This similarity in developmental patterns challenges the notion that there are fundamental, long-standing differences between Eastern and Western civilizations. It suggests that the factors driving human progress are more universal than many people assume.
However, Morris does note that the West has consistently maintained a slight lead over the East throughout most of history. This small but persistent advantage plays a crucial role in explaining the current state of global power dynamics.
The Geographic Advantage of the West After the Ice Age
Morris argues that the West's initial advantage can be traced back to the end of the last Ice Age, around 11,700 BCE. During the Ice Age, humans in both East and West lived similarly, in small nomadic groups that hunted animals and gathered plants. But as the climate warmed, the stage was set for significant changes in human society.
The key difference between East and West at this point was the timing of agricultural development. Agriculture emerged in the Western "core" about 1,500 to 2,000 years earlier than in the East. This head start was largely due to geographic factors.
The Western core, known as the Hilly Flanks, is a crescent-shaped region in southwest Asia stretching from southern Iraq to the eastern Mediterranean. This area had a unique concentration of plants and animals that were suitable for domestication. Most modern cereals, like wheat, barley, and rice, evolved from grasses native to this region. Similarly, domesticable animals like sheep, goats, cows, and pigs were also native to the Hilly Flanks.
By 7000 BCE, farming was widespread in the Hilly Flanks, and these agricultural societies were leading the way in civilization. In contrast, the earliest evidence of farming in China, specifically rice cultivation in the Yangzi valley, dates to between 8000 and 7500 BCE.
Morris emphasizes that the later development of agriculture in the East wasn't due to any inferiority of Eastern peoples or cultures. Rather, it was simply because the East lacked the geographic conditions that triggered earlier agricultural development in the West.
This geographic advantage gave the West a significant head start in social development. The ability to produce food more efficiently allowed for larger, more settled populations, which in turn led to more complex social organizations and technological advancements.
However, as we'll see, this initial advantage didn't guarantee permanent Western dominance. The interplay between East and West was far more dynamic and complex than a simple story of continuous Western superiority.
The Narrowing Gap Between East and West
Despite the West's early lead, by the first millennium BCE, the gap in social development between East and West had narrowed considerably. This convergence was the result of both Western setbacks and Eastern advancements.
Around 1200 BCE, the West experienced a significant crisis known as the Late Bronze Age collapse. This period saw the fragmentation of Western empires, including the Mycenaean civilization in Greece and even the mighty Egyptian empire under Ramses II. The exact causes of this collapse are still debated by archaeologists, but it likely involved a combination of factors including climate change, famine, political instability, migration, and possibly disease.
This Western crisis effectively reduced its lead over the East by about six centuries. By 1000 BCE, the East's social development score was only a few hundred years behind the West's, a significant narrowing of the gap.
During this same period, both East and West began to undergo similar structural changes in their societies. They shifted from what Morris calls "low-end states" to "high-end states." In low-end states, rulers had minimal expenditure and relied on local elites for things like mustering armies. High-end states, on the other hand, centralized power and developed bureaucratic systems for collecting taxes and managing resources.
The foundations for high-end states were laid in both East and West during the tenth century BCE. However, it was in the West that the first extensive high-end states emerged, with the Assyrian empire reaching its peak around 660 BCE.
This period of convergence illustrates a key theme in Morris's analysis: the dynamic nature of East-West relations. The West's early advantage was not insurmountable, and external factors could significantly alter the balance of development between the two regions.
The Rise and Fall of Great Empires
The emergence of high-end states paved the way for the age of empires in both East and West. In the West, the Assyrian and Persian empires were the first fully-fledged high-end states, while in the East, it was the Zhou dynasty (1046–256 BCE) that led the way.
However, these early empires were soon overshadowed by even greater powers. In the West, the Roman Empire emerged as the dominant force. The Roman Republic was founded in 509 BCE, but it wasn't until around 200 BCE that it achieved superpower status. By 201 BCE, after defeating its great rival, the Carthaginian Empire, Rome controlled vast portions of the Mediterranean coastline.
In the East, the Chinese Han Empire (206 BCE - 220 CE) rose to prominence. At its peak, it was one of the largest empires ever to have existed.
Morris points out that these Eastern and Western empires had much in common. Both were characterized by literate, philosophically trained elites based in large cities. These urban centers were supported by highly productive agricultural systems and extensive trade networks.
However, both Eastern and Western empires began to disintegrate in the first centuries of the Common Era. The Roman Empire split into Eastern and Western provinces in 285 CE, with the Western half finally collapsing in 476 CE. In China, the empire also fragmented, with the Jin dynasty ruling the south while the north was divided into five smaller kingdoms by around 400 CE.
The reasons for these imperial collapses were similar in both regions. They faced constant attacks from nomadic peoples on their frontiers, while their central administrations struggled to maintain cohesion over vast territories.
This parallel rise and fall of empires in East and West further underscores Morris's argument about the similarities in their historical development. It also sets the stage for the next phase of East-West dynamics, where the balance of power would shift once again.
The Eastern Peak and Western Split
As we move into the early first millennium CE, we see another shift in the balance between East and West. While Western social development had consistently outpaced the East up to this point (the Roman Empire at its peak had double the coinage in circulation as the Han dynasty), the decline of the Western Roman Empire allowed the East to catch up and eventually overtake the West.
The East, particularly China, recovered more quickly from the downfall of its early empire. The Sui dynasty managed to reunify China's north and south without devastating the economy. This reunification set the stage for a China-wide economic boom, ushering in a golden age.
China's prosperity was further boosted by favorable climate conditions. The Medieval Warm Period resulted in increased rainfall in the semi-arid north, leading to greater agricultural yields. This abundance allowed China's population to grow to an impressive 100 million by 1100 CE.
It was at this point, around 1100 CE, that Eastern social development finally reached the heights previously achieved by the Roman Empire a thousand years earlier. This marked a significant milestone in the long-term competition between East and West.
Meanwhile, the West was undergoing a different kind of transformation. From about 700 CE, it began to slowly recover from the fall of Rome, but the region was now divided into two distinct spheres: Muslim and Christian.
Much of what had been the Western Roman Empire, including Spain, Northern Africa, and the Middle East, was conquered and largely united by Muslim Arabs. Christian influence was pushed to the periphery in northern Europe.
The Medieval Warm Period had different effects in the West. While it benefited northern Europe, it resulted in the devastation of the dry Arab heartlands in southwest Asia. As a result, the Western center of gravity shifted towards the Mediterranean, with trade becoming concentrated in cities like Muslim Palermo and Cairo, and Christian Venice and Genoa.
This period of increased trade led to greater cultural exchange between the Muslim and Christian worlds. The transmission of scholarship and knowledge from the Muslim empires to Christian Europe laid the foundations for the later Renaissance.
Once again, we see how geography and climate played crucial roles in shaping the destinies of East and West. The East's reunification and favorable agricultural conditions allowed it to reach new heights of development, while the West's division into Muslim and Christian spheres set the stage for a unique period of cultural exchange and eventual renaissance.
Western Leap Forward: 1000-1500 CE
The period between 1000 and 1500 CE saw a significant leap forward in Western social development, largely due to the expansion of trading routes. This era is perhaps best symbolized by the Venetian merchant Marco Polo, whose travelogue at the start of the fourteenth century painted a picture of an East that was far more advanced than the West.
Polo's accounts described Chinese palaces and rulers' wealth that had no equal in the West, reflecting the East's higher level of social development at the time. However, the world Polo described was already changing by the time he wrote about it.
By the late thirteenth century, Eastern social development had begun to decline. China was engaged in prolonged wars against the Mongols on its northern frontiers. The Mongol advance led to the collapse of China's complex infrastructure, resulting in destruction, famine, and disease. The industrial advance that might have been expected in China was derailed by these external pressures.
In contrast, Western Europe was spared from the Mongol invasions. This allowed the West to undergo its own renaissance, beginning in Italy around 1300. The Renaissance was fueled by the rediscovery of Greek and Roman knowledge, much of which had been preserved by Arab scholars. This period of cultural and intellectual revival sparked an atmosphere of innovation and inquiry that would have far-reaching consequences.
One of the most significant outcomes of this renewed Western vigor was the age of exploration. Columbus's voyage to America in 1492 was an early indicator that the West would turn the oceans into commercial highways. This marked the beginning of a new era of Western expansion and influence.
Morris points out that geography once again played a crucial role in this development. While fifteenth-century Chinese vessels were theoretically capable of reaching America, the geography favored Western explorers. The Atlantic route from Europe to the Americas was about 3,000 miles, while the Pacific crossing from China was more than twice that distance.
Despite these advancements, it's important to note that China's social development still maintained a slight lead over the West at this point. However, the seeds of future Western dominance had been planted.
This period illustrates how quickly the balance of power between East and West could shift. The East's decline due to external pressures coincided with a period of Western revival and expansion, setting the stage for the dramatic changes that would come in the following centuries.
The Industrial Revolution and Western Rule
The period between 1500 and 1800 saw social development scores rising in both the East and West, but at different rates. Western development was advancing twice as fast as the East, and by the late eighteenth century, the West had finally managed to overtake the East.
Several factors contributed to this Western surge. The discovery of the New World led to a boom in Western trade. European colonists were able to exploit the resources of the American continent, producing commodities that were either not native to Europe or grew better abroad, such as cane sugar. These products were then shipped back to Europe, fueling economic growth.
Additionally, the new modern sciences developing in Europe began to have a significant impact. Newton's description of classical physics and mechanics, for example, enabled rapid technological advancement.
However, the real game-changer was the development of the steam engine. Scottish inventor James Watt's practical design for the steam engine in the late 18th century marked the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the West.
The impact of the steam engine cannot be overstated. For centuries, human societies had been dependent on animal power, wind, and water for energy. The steam engine made power production both portable and geographically independent. This led to the development of steamships and trains, which dramatically shrank the world and facilitated global trade.
The Industrial Revolution created a stark divide between East and West. In 1750, the two regions were still strikingly similar in terms of social development. But by 1850, steam power had propelled the West far ahead of the East.
The atmosphere of invention and progress in the West led to further technological advancements. The development of the telegraph, for instance, revolutionized communication and further accelerated Western progress.
It was clear that the Industrial Revolution had set Western rule in motion. The technological and economic advantages gained during this period would shape global power dynamics for centuries to come.
This dramatic shift illustrates Morris's point about the importance of technological breakthroughs in shaping the balance between East and West. The steam engine and the Industrial Revolution it spawned represented a quantum leap in social development, allowing the West to surge ahead of the East in a relatively short period.
The 20th Century: Western Dominance Amid Global Conflicts
The 20th century was a period of unprecedented global conflict, marked by two World Wars and the prolonged tension of the Cold War. Despite the enormous human and material costs of these conflicts, it was during this tumultuous century that Western dominance reached its peak.
World War I, despite its destructive nature, had the effect of dismantling Europe's archaic dynastic systems, paving the way for the spread of democracy across the continent. This political transformation, coupled with technological advancements spurred by wartime necessities, further consolidated Western power.
World War II, while even more devastating on a global scale, did not lead to the collapse of Western dominance. In fact, the aftermath of the war saw the United States emerge as a superpower. The war's impact was felt differently in the East and West. While European nations and the Soviet Union had to rebuild their industries, the American mainland had been spared from enemy attacks. In contrast, the East, particularly China and Japan, suffered extensive devastation that took decades to overcome.
The Cold War that followed World War II, despite the constant threat of nuclear annihilation, ultimately ended with the triumph of the Western bloc led by the United States. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the end of the Cold War and ushered in a period of uncontested Western (particularly American) global hegemony.
However, even as the West celebrated its victory in the Cold War, signs of change were appearing on the horizon. In the 1990s, China began implementing sweeping economic reforms, including large-scale privatization. These changes set the stage for China's dramatic economic rise in the following decades.
The shifting balance of economic power became increasingly evident. In 1970, 22 percent of the world's goods were produced in the United States, while China made only 5 percent. American workers were 20 times more productive than their Chinese counterparts. But by 2000, this gap had narrowed significantly. Americans were now only seven times more productive, and China's share of global production had risen to 14 percent, while America's had stagnated at 21 percent.
This period saw China emerge as "the workshop of the world," a title once held by Britain during the height of its imperial power. The rapid industrialization and economic growth of China signaled that the East was once again rising to challenge Western dominance.
The 20th century, therefore, represents both the apex of Western rule and the beginning of its potential decline. It demonstrates how global conflicts can reshape the balance of power, but also how economic transformations can gradually shift this balance over time.
Predicting the Future: The East's Potential Resurgence
Based on his analysis of historical trends and current developments, Morris makes a bold prediction: the East is expected to regain its lead over the West by 2103. This projection is based on an extrapolation of Eastern and Western social development indices.
The primary driver of this shift is the narrowing gap between the economic outputs of the United States and China. Various financial institutions have made their own predictions about when China's economic output will match that of the US. Goldman Sachs predicts this will happen by 2027, while PricewaterhouseCoopers estimates it could be as early as 2025. These projections are based on China's impressive annual growth rates, which have consistently outpaced those of Western economies.
However, Morris notes that economic output is just one aspect of social development. In other areas such as military capability, information technology, and per capita energy capture, it may take the East longer to catch up with the West. Morris suggests that it will take until 2103 for the East to reach parity in all these areas, assuming continued improvement after 2050.
Of course, predicting the future is an inherently uncertain endeavor, and Morris acknowledges several unknowns that could affect this projection:
Cultural Convergence: Some observers suggest that as the East becomes more prosperous, it may also become more "Western" in its cultural, political, and economic systems. In a fully globalized world, the distinctions between East and West might become less meaningful.
Scientific and Technological Leadership: The majority of recent scientific and technological advancements have originated in the West. If this trend continues, it could help maintain Western dominance.
Global Challenges: Unpredictable factors such as climate change, large-scale migration, pandemics, and potential conflicts could significantly alter the course of development for both East and West.
Morris's prediction is not a certainty, but rather a projection based on current trends. It serves as a thought-provoking possibility that challenges us to reconsider our assumptions about the permanence of Western dominance.
This forward-looking analysis ties back to one of the book's central themes: the cyclical nature of East-West relations throughout history. Just as the East has been more advanced than the West in the past, it may well be again in the future. This perspective encourages readers to view current global dynamics as part of a long-term historical process rather than a fixed state of affairs.
Conclusion: The Dynamics of East-West Relations
In "Why The West Rules – For Now," Ian Morris presents a comprehensive and nuanced view of the historical relationship between East and West. His analysis challenges simplistic explanations of Western dominance and offers a more complex understanding of how global power dynamics have evolved over millennia.
Key takeaways from Morris's work include:
The rejection of both long-term lock-in and short-term accident theories to explain Western dominance. Morris demonstrates that racist genetic theories and ideas of inherent cultural superiority are not only morally problematic but also historically inaccurate.
The importance of geography in shaping historical development. From the early advantage the West gained due to its favorable conditions for agriculture, to the role of Atlantic and Pacific distances in the age of exploration, geography has consistently influenced the course of history.
The striking similarities in the developmental patterns of East and West. Despite their geographical separation, both regions followed remarkably similar trajectories of social development for much of history.
The dynamic nature of East-West relations. Morris shows that the balance of power between East and West has shifted multiple times throughout history. The East has been more advanced than the West in the past, and may well be again in the future.
The crucial role of technological breakthroughs in altering the balance of power. The Industrial Revolution, in particular, allowed the West to surge ahead of the East in a relatively short period.
The potential for future shifts in global power dynamics. Morris's prediction that the East may regain its lead by 2103 serves as a reminder that current Western dominance is not a permanent state of affairs.
Morris's work encourages readers to take a long view of history and to consider current global dynamics as part of an ongoing historical process. It challenges us to move beyond simplistic narratives of Western superiority and to appreciate the complex interplay of factors that have shaped our world.
Moreover, the book's insights have implications for how we might approach current global challenges. Understanding the historical dynamics between East and West can inform diplomatic relations, economic policies, and strategies for addressing shared global issues like climate change.
In conclusion, "Why The West Rules – For Now" offers a fascinating journey through human history, providing a data-driven yet deeply human perspective on the development of civilizations. It reminds us that in the grand sweep of history, the current state of affairs is just one moment in an ongoing story of human progress and competition. As we face an uncertain future, Morris's work provides valuable context for understanding our past and contemplating our collective future.