Brave New War Summary

“How do small, fragmented groups of insurgents bring powerful nation-states to their knees? By exploiting global interconnectedness and vulnerabilities no one expects.”

1. Big States No Longer Hold the Upper Hand in Battles

Once upon a time, large nations with vast armies dominated wars due to sheer size and resources. But the game has changed. Nuclear weapons ensure that direct conflicts between these countries often lead to mutually assured destruction, discouraging large-scale engagements. Concurrently, economic and global interdependence ensures that war harms both opposing parties economically, reducing its appeal.

Proxy wars have replaced direct conflicts, wherein countries oppose their rivals indirectly, usually through guerrilla forces or small groups. These guerrillas excel in exploiting weaker, piecemeal tactics that fragment and wear down formidable armies. Over the years, this asymmetry has caused superpowers like the US to falter in conflicts like Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

Guerilla wars avoid large-scale battles and instead focus on attrition. Nations with massive armies bleed resources as smaller forces strike at opportune moments. This “death by a thousand cuts” method exposes the inefficacy of conventional military superiority in modern conflicts.

Examples

• Afghanistan saw guerrilla fighters overpower Soviet and later American forces through indirect warfare tactics.
• Iran-backed Hezbollah orchestrated indirect attacks on American interests in Lebanon during the 1980s.
• The Vietnam War showed how guerrilla resistance wore down the US military, despite its might.

2. The Internet and Technology Erode State Authority

Ever since the birth of modern nation-states in the 17th century, states have wielded control over their economies, citizens, and safety. Yet today, technology, especially the internet, has disrupted this traditional authority. People can access global markets or ideologies, bypassing government mediation.

This erosion is particularly evident in security. Terrorists and insurgents coordinate across the globe undetected, leveraging tools that massive security apparatuses cannot predict or manage effectively. Struggling to manage these invisible threats, some states turn to privatized security to plug gaps.

As technology empowers individuals and private groups, governments lose grip over economies, communications, and public safety—hallmarks of their historical dominance.

Examples

• Insurgent groups in Iraq exchanged tactics over encrypted communication, staying steps ahead of military intelligence.
• Cybercriminals use the dark web to disrupt governmental systems while remaining hidden.
• Private military firms now guard high-profile staff and infrastructure in conflict zones, reducing reliance on state-led forces.

3. Criminal Networks Aim to Topple Nation-States

Global terrorist groups and organized crime syndicates actively weaken nation-state systems today, though not necessarily to conquer. They thrive in spaces where existing governance collapses, using the gaps created by war, corruption, or failed policies to expand their empires.

These groups seek to destabilize nations deliberately. Weak governments provide them with havens for recruitment, smuggling, and resource exploitation. Growing black markets, now worth trillions, fund their operations, often bypassing conventional trade barriers.

Such groups increasingly coordinate across borders and push hard against states’ abilities to enforce stability. They don't aim to replace nations; they prefer societies with weak, crumbling laws—powerful for profits and chaos.

Examples

• Al-Qaeda seeks to overthrow nation-states in favor of a unified Islamic empire.
• Mexican drug cartels thrive in areas where governments have lost administrative control.
• The global black market grows exponentially, financing terrorism and insurgencies.

4. Systems Disruption as a Core Strategy

Today's global insurgents focus their attacks on systems vital for national functioning, like energy, transport, or communication networks. Such attacks cripple their targets more than mass casualties ever could.

Consider the idea of the “systempunkt,” where a specific weak point in a system connects to a larger network. Destroying it can cause cascading failures, paralyzing interconnected systems far beyond the initial target. With relatively minimal investment, insurgents can cause outsized destruction.

An example is the oil pipeline sabotage in Iraq in 2004. A minor attack unwound weeks of national oil output, costing Iraq hundreds of millions while the insurgents spent just a few thousand dollars.

Examples

• Iraqi insurgents shut down entire oil supply systems with fractional effort.
• A cyberattack on Ukraine’s electrical grid disrupted power to thousands of citizens.
• Transport strikes, as seen during certain terrorist efforts in Madrid, disrupted urban systems with lasting effects.

5. Open-Source Warfare Levels the Playing Field

Much like tech developers share ideas to build better software, insurgents today engage in “open-source warfare.” Terrorists share their strategies, weapons, or successful operations online, enabling groups worldwide to copy these methods.

That means traditional intelligence methods struggle to keep up. These loosely connected “warfare networks” have no leaders to target or plans to preempt. Instead, they evolve continuously, adopting successful experiments and discarding failures.

Even killing a significant terrorist leader doesn’t disrupt these networks. After the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq, insurgency efforts not only persisted but evolved.

Examples

• Insurgents in Syria exchanged successes online to train global recruits.
• Social media platforms have been exploited for recruitment and propaganda by terrorist groups.
• The decentralized tactics in conflict zones act like “grassroots laboratories” for evolving strategies.

6. The Power of Insurgency’s "Long Tail"

The digital age has made insurgencies resemble global marketplaces. Major corporations don’t dominate sales alone; now, niche product sellers also thrive within specialized audiences. Similarly, terrorism no longer depends solely on large organizations.

Each insurgency splinters into smaller factions, using platforms like the internet to find sympathizers and propagate their causes. These smaller factions continue the fight, ensuring the base movement remains alive despite individual victories against leaders or groups.

In Iraq, during its most volatile times, over 75 independent insurgent factions worked concurrently to resist foreign powers.

Examples

• Amazon thrives as more than half its sales come from niche products or sellers.
• By 2006, Iraq’s insurgency saw splinter groups united by the broader anti-coalition sentiment.
• Social media connects micro-movements to decentralized but robust support systems.

7. Traditional Security Measures Fall Short

Conventional measures like large surveillance programs or heavy-handed military involvement fail to stop modern security threats. Traditional tactics often only respond to past attacks, leaving nations vulnerable to newer strategies.

For example, after 9/11, governments enhanced airport security to prevent hijack-based terrorism. However, shifting tactics now involve systems disruptions instead, making well-prepared checkpoints redundant in preventing the next crisis.

Furthermore, overly aggressive measures like mass data collection or enhanced interrogation often backfire, damaging the trust and moral authority states relied upon.

Examples

• Airports became heavily fortified post-9/11, but new targets emerged elsewhere.
• Whistleblowers revealed that NSA’s data collection rarely stopped actual planned strikes.
• Torture and human rights abuses undermined US positions as a democratic, ethical leader.

8. Vital Systems Need Decentralization

To guard against looming attacks, vital systems must become less interconnected and more adaptable. Think of a power grid where individual users, relying on renewable energy sources, feed excess electricity back into the system. Such decentralization prevents one attack from disabling nationwide operations.

Decentralized systems allow smaller failures without widespread consequences. Independent “nodes” ensure overall stability even if a few are removed, making nations resilient to disruptive tactics.

Solar-powered energy grids or open-source manufacturing networks can demonstrate this decentralized shift.

Examples

• Internet platforms work where users double as producers, securing continued operation.
• In Germany, renewable energy decentralization prevented widespread dependency on singular power plants.
• Crowdsourced disaster response improves recovery times post-calamities.

9. Responsibility Lies Beyond the Nation-State

The battle against insurgencies cannot be won by governments alone. Communities, individual citizens, and private sectors all have roles to play. By reducing reliance on centralized systems and minimizing contributions to harmful markets, societies become more secure.

When civilians and corporations embrace decentralized systems—aided by independent energy sources, robust networks, or self-contained infrastructures—they mitigate risks significantly.

Furthermore, curbing participation in black markets prevents funding for these groups.

Examples

• Localized energy grids bolster resilience against national-level cyberattacks.
• Consumers choosing legal markets reduce terrorist revenue streams.
• Businesses adopting blockchain networks improve transparency in global trade.

Takeaways

1. Avoid legitimizing or engaging with the black market in any way to starve global guerrilla groups of resources.
2. Develop self-reliant systems at home or in communities, such as solar panels or emergency supply networks.
3. Support changes toward decentralized societal systems to guard against cascading failures during potential disruptions.