Chaos Under Heaven Summary

China sees itself as the center of 'all under heaven,' but how does the West respond when that vision grows aggressive and opaque?

1. The Trump Administration Struggled to Address a Evolving China

The Trump administration inherited a complex relationship with China, one shaped by decades of intertwining economies. The predominant hope in the past was that economic growth would push China to become more democratic and open. However, this theory began collapsing during the Obama years as China's development leaned toward nationalism and authoritarianism rather than democracy.

Under Xi Jinping, the Chinese government increasingly exploited technology, leveraging hacking to steal intellectual property from international businesses. Additionally, foreign companies were pressured into partnerships that often handed over valuable data to the Chinese Communist Party. These aggressive tactics aligned with China's national strategy to bolster its military while monitoring its citizens more closely.

As Donald Trump transitioned into office, the administration faced immediate divisions on how to approach China's growing dominance and opacity. The interwoven economic and ideological bonds between the two nations further complicated efforts to establish a unified U.S. strategy in response to Beijing's moves.

Examples

• China's hackers breached corporate systems to steal proprietary business secrets.
• International firms entering China were forced into joint ventures, giving Beijing access to intellectual property.
• The Chinese Communist Party leveraged businesses to serve its military goals and surveillance state.

2. Hawks and Doves Battled over U.S. Strategy to China

Trump's team, from day one, exhibited stark divisions. Some members believed in maintaining a diplomatic, investment-friendly stance, while others pushed for aggressive measures to counter China's actions. Key figures like Jared Kushner leaned toward diplomacy and personal connections, while Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro openly advocated for tougher stands.

Jared Kushner's unofficial back-channel ties to China, forged through family business dealings and advisors like Henry Kissinger, established one camp of China "doves." This group emphasized cooperation and economic engagement. On the opposite side, strategist Steve Bannon and economist Peter Navarro were vocal "hawks" who considered Beijing an adversary intent on surpassing U.S. global dominance.

Frequent power struggles within the administration created chaos, undermining America’s ability to present a consistent front toward China. Over time, as Trump’s administration structure fluctuated, these competing ideologies continued to stall progress.

Examples

• Kushner formed connections with Chinese Ambassador Cui Tiankai, valuing diplomatic rapport.
• Bannon pushed to confront the Communist Party directly and dismiss amiable dealings.
• Peter Navarro developed trade policies aimed at countering years of malpractice by Chinese firms.

3. Xi Jinping's Mar-a-Lago Visit Highlighted Trade Negotiations

Trump, a dealmaker at his core, sought to resolve ongoing economic tensions with China through high-profile personal diplomacy. Xi Jinping’s visit to Mar-a-Lago marked the early stages of trade discussions, but the negotiations were riddled with controversy from the start.

Prior to Xi’s visit, Trump angered Beijing by picking up a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s president, a move Beijing interpreted as endorsing Taiwanese independence. This misstep highlighted Trump's inexperience with diplomatic nuances. To mend fences, Trump assured Xi that the U.S. respected China’s "One China" policy and received Xi at his Florida retreat.

Though Trump toned down rhetoric on tariffs and launched a "Comprehensive Economic Dialogue," his willingness to overlook Taiwan, Hong Kong, and human rights issues alienated the hawks in his administration. Still, the dialogue did little to change China's approach, setting the stage for years of fractious trade negotiations.

Examples

• The Taiwan phone call created tension, forcing Trump into damage-control mode.
• Bannon criticized Trump for losing leverage by downplaying Taiwan’s sovereignty.
• The initial trade dialogues appeased neither U.S. hawks nor critics of Beijing.

4. Economic Policy Shifted with the Trade Talks

Throughout Trump's presidency, policies toward China shifted alongside the progress—or lack thereof—in trade deals. Trump often praised Xi Jinping, calling him a "friend" during times of negotiation. However, China systematically resisted making concessions, knowing their friendship facade could cool tensions.

When trade talks faltered, the hawks pushed for tariffs and fired economic warnings, as seen with the Section 301 investigation into Beijing’s business practices. This investigation exposed grave risks of intellectual property theft but also underscored Washington's hesitation to act decisively. Trump's mixed signals created an impression of inconsistency that Beijing leveraged to its advantage.

For China, simple gestures like flattering Trump often sufficed to reset tensions. Such maneuvers showcased China's understanding of Trump's personality-driven decision-making.

Examples

• Trump doubled back on banning Huawei during trade discussions with Xi.
• Matt Pottinger's investigation into China revealed its abuse of trade agreements.
• Xi’s diplomatic overtures consistently softened Trump’s stance.

5. Alarming Human Rights Violations Surfaced

Throughout 2018 and 2019, international awareness of China’s oppressive treatment of ethnic minorities, including the Uyghurs and Tibetans, grew. Beijing’s systematic repression through internment camps and social engineering shocked the world when details finally emerged.

Uyghurs in Xinjiang faced enormous hardships. Religious and cultural practices were banned, and those seen as potential threats were detained in "reeducation camps." Individuals like Vera Zhou, a student detained for using an unauthorized VPN, offered grim insight into life under this regime.

Despite these revelations, Trump appeared indifferent. Reports of his approval of China’s internment camps at a G20 summit stirred further controversy. In contrast, the public outrage bolstered bipartisanship in Congress, empowering the administration's hawks.

Examples

• Uyghurs faced cultural erasure through strict laws in Xinjiang.
• Reports revealed Han Chinese were sent to monitor and outnumber minorities in key regions.
• Vera Zhou's detainment underscored the arbitrary enforcement of Beijing's authoritarian rules.

6. How China Expands Influence Beyond Borders

China has employed an extensive system of global influence, from infiltrating international institutions to influencing educational systems abroad. The Communist Party’s goal is to secure dominance through strategic partnerships and propaganda.

Organizations like the UN and World Bank came under Beijing’s sway, evident in China-led revisions to agendas like Taiwan's exclusion from aviation bodies. Beyond global diplomacy, China’s United Front programs sought to infiltrate politics and media, as seen with Confucius Institutes aimed at shaping views on China.

Such actions made countries more dependent on Chinese interests and expanded its global clout.

Examples

• Taiwan was barred from International Civil Aviation Organization assemblies.
• Confucius Institutes faced scrutiny as tools for propaganda on university campuses.
• Australia cracked down on Chinese-backed interference in its legislative affairs.

7. 2019's Rising Aggressions Went Unchecked

As China displayed increasing aggression—from diminishing Hong Kong’s freedoms to sanctioning critics abroad—Trump's fluctuating stance sent mixed messages. Arresting Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou raised eyebrows, but Trump later walked back bans on Chinese tech firms under pressure.

Notable cases like the Houston Rockets NBA controversy demonstrated Beijing’s ability to bully foreign entities into submission. These assertive moves showcased China’s confidence while exposing America’s hesitancy to confront such challenges decisively.

Examples

• Hong Kong protests highlighted Beijing’s disregard for previous international agreements.
• Huawei faced accusations tied to state-mandated data sharing and spying.
• Daryl Morey’s tweet sparked Chinese boycotts, inciting global backlash.

8. China's COVID Response Exposed Flaws in U.S. Policy

China’s response to COVID-19 demonstrated how its secrecy extends beyond politics into health crises. As Wuhan battled the virus, early reports were silenced. American officials were also kept in the dark, sparking tension as the pandemic unfolded.

The proximity of the Wuhan seafood market to a virology lab conducting risky experiments raised questions Beijing refused to answer. As China downplayed the outbreak, Trump repeated similar dismissive rhetoric, delaying America’s response.

Examples

• Wuhan’s "cleaned" markets prevented early trace investigations.
• Reports revealed coronavirus experiments involving gain-of-function research in Wuhan labs.
• Silenced Chinese whistleblowers like Dr. Li Wenliang became global symbols.

9. Financial Dependence Weakens U.S. Leverage

Despite mounting tensions, America’s investment in China remains entrenched. Retirement funds and major indexes, such as MSCI, enable billions of dollars to flow into Chinese businesses—some directly linked to Beijing's military.

Attempts to limit these investments faltered when economic advisors warned against market disruptions. This financial entanglement prevents assertive policies and keeps America tied to China's economic stability.

Examples

• Hikvision, tied to Uyghur camps, benefits from U.S. investments.
• MSCI funds support members of Beijing's arms industry.
• Marco Rubio’s attempts to regulate indexes were rebuffed by financial advisors.

Takeaways

1. Prioritize diversifying investments to reduce over-reliance on Chinese markets and protect U.S. sovereignty.
2. Educate policymakers and businesses about China’s influence systems, focusing on transparency and safeguards.
3. Strengthen bipartisan cooperation to establish consistent foreign policy measures against oppressive regimes.