Chaos Under Heaven

Introduction

In "Chaos Under Heaven," Josh Rogin provides an in-depth look at the Trump administration's tumultuous relationship with China. The book explores the complex challenges faced by the United States in dealing with an increasingly assertive and powerful China, and how competing interests within the Trump administration led to a chaotic and often inconsistent approach to US-China relations.

Rogin's work offers readers a behind-the-scenes look at the power struggles, policy debates, and diplomatic maneuverings that shaped America's China policy during the Trump years. Through extensive research and interviews with key players, the author paints a vivid picture of the internal conflicts and external pressures that influenced decision-making at the highest levels of government.

As China continues to grow in power and influence on the world stage, understanding the dynamics of US-China relations becomes increasingly important. "Chaos Under Heaven" provides valuable insights into this critical relationship and the challenges that lie ahead for future administrations.

The Unexpected Trump Presidency and China's Reaction

When Donald Trump unexpectedly won the 2016 US presidential election, it caught many by surprise – including the Chinese government. Beijing had been preparing for a Hillary Clinton presidency, expecting to deal with familiar politicians and a traditional diplomatic approach. Instead, they found themselves facing an unpredictable force of nature in Trump.

The new administration quickly had to determine its approach to China, a task made more complex by China's own increasingly erratic behavior. For decades, US policy towards China had been based on the theory that helping China develop a robust, international economy would gradually lead to the country becoming more open and democratic. This approach, which began during the presidency of George H. W. Bush and continued through the Obama administration, was no longer working as intended.

Several factors contributed to the failure of this long-standing policy:

1. The unforeseen impact of the internet and digital technology on global affairs.
2. China's aggressive exploitation of new technologies, including widespread hacking and intellectual property theft.
3. The forced joint ventures that gave Chinese companies easy access to foreign intellectual property.
4. The realization that Chinese businesses are ultimately beholden to the state, with the Communist Party able to demand access to technology and data at will.

Instead of becoming more democratic and open, China's economic growth in the internet age had made the country more nationalistic, totalitarian, and oppressive. The Trump administration now faced the challenge of dealing with these issues, as well as the complex economic and ideological entanglements that had developed between the US and China over the years.

Hawks vs. Doves: The Divided Trump Administration

From the very beginning, the Trump administration was deeply divided on how to approach China. This division was evident even in the first meeting between Trump officials and a Chinese diplomat in December 2016. The American side of the table included a mix of personalities with very different views on China:

1. Jared Kushner: Trump's son-in-law, who had existing business connections to China and admired Henry Kissinger's diplomatic legacy.
2. Steve Bannon: Trump's senior strategist, who viewed China as "the enemy" and wanted to bring down the Communist Party.
3. Peter Navarro: An economics professor who had designed an aggressive new trade policy aimed at challenging China's unfair business practices.
4. Michael Flynn: The soon-to-be national security advisor.
5. K.T. McFarland: The future deputy national security advisor.

This group represented the two main factions within the administration: the hawks and the doves. The hawks, led by Bannon and Navarro, wanted to take a tough stance against China, while the doves, including Kushner and soon-to-be Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, favored a more diplomatic approach.

The internal conflicts between these factions would lead to chaos in the administration's China policy. As key players like Bannon and Flynn were forced to step down early in Trump's term, the balance of power shifted, but the fundamental divide remained.

Throughout Trump's presidency, the administration struggled to speak with a unified voice on China policy. This internal discord was in stark contrast to the clear and consistent message coming from the Chinese side, as exemplified by diplomat Yang Jiechi's insistence that China be treated as an equal and that its sovereignty not be questioned.

The Mar-a-Lago Meeting and Trade Negotiations

The path to the first face-to-face meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping was not smooth. Shortly after winning the election, Trump accepted a congratulatory call from the president of Taiwan, a move that deeply offended China, which considers Taiwan a rogue province. This incident required careful diplomatic maneuvering to repair the damage and arrange a meeting between the two leaders.

Eventually, through the efforts of Jared Kushner and Chinese Ambassador Cui Tiankai, a call between Trump and Xi was organized. Trump apologized for taking the Taiwan call and promised it wouldn't happen again, paving the way for Xi's visit to Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

The Mar-a-Lago meeting, which took place on April 7, 2017, marked the beginning of prolonged trade negotiations between the US and China. The outcome of this meeting was a source of frustration for the China hawks in Trump's administration:

1. Trump touted his newfound friendship with Xi, seemingly abandoning the tough stance he had promised during his campaign.
2. The threat of tariffs was taken off the table.
3. Trump agreed not to label China a "currency manipulator," another key issue for the hawks.
4. The two countries agreed to enter into a 100-day "Comprehensive Economic Dialogue," which was reminiscent of the Obama administration's approach to China.

The hawks saw this outcome as a continuation of the failed policies of previous administrations. They hoped that when the dialogue inevitably failed to produce results, they would finally have the opportunity to push their more aggressive agenda.

The Shifting Sands of Trump's China Policy

Throughout his presidency, Trump's approach to China was characterized by frequent shifts and inconsistencies. These changes were often driven by the state of trade negotiations and Trump's personal relationship with Xi Jinping.

Trump viewed Xi as a CEO-like figure and believed that fostering a friendly relationship would help facilitate deals. This perspective often put him at odds with members of his National Security Council, who warned against accepting Xi's overtures of friendship.

The administration's policy on China would fluctuate based on the progress of trade talks:

1. When negotiations weren't going well, Trump would listen to the hawks and consider aggressive actions, such as imposing tariffs on Chinese goods.
2. When relations seemed to be improving, as during Trump's visit to China in November 2017, the president would revert to calling Xi a friend, and the doves would gain influence.

This pattern created a situation where Xi could manipulate Trump's stance through simple friendly gestures. The Chinese leader understood that by appearing cooperative, he could cool tensions and avoid more aggressive US actions.

One example of the administration's inconsistent approach was the 301 investigation launched by the hawks. This six-month inquiry, led by Matt Pottinger, aimed to prove that China's business practices were a direct threat to US national security. While the investigation was ongoing, debates raged within the administration about the appropriate response to China's actions.

Some officials, like Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Secretary of Defense James Mattis, opposed aggressive measures such as tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum. Others supported such actions. These internal disagreements further contributed to the chaotic nature of US policy towards China during this period.

Human Rights Violations Come to Light

As Trump's presidency progressed, the full extent of China's human rights violations began to come to light. While the world had long been aware of China's suppression of ethnic minorities like the Tibetans, the plight of the Uyghur people in the Xinjiang region remained largely hidden for years.

The Chinese government's treatment of ethnic minorities in Tibet and Xinjiang included:

1. Laws prohibiting cultural and religious practices
2. Forced relocation of Han Chinese to establish a dominant culture aligned with the Communist Party
3. Use of local spies to report on neighbors for infractions such as having long beards or watching unapproved TV shows
4. Internment camps for Uyghurs deemed a threat to the state

Despite growing awareness of these human rights abuses, Trump largely agreed to keep these topics off-limits in discussions with China. According to former National Security Advisor John Bolton, Trump even told Xi at the 2019 G20 summit in Osaka that building the internment camps was "exactly the right thing to do."

However, as more information about the internment camps came to light, public opinion in the US began to shift. The testimony of Vera Zhou, a University of Washington student who spent nearly two years in an internment camp, shocked the American public and garnered bipartisan support in Washington. This increased awareness energized the hawks within the administration who wanted to take a tougher stance on China's human rights violations.

China's Global Influence Campaign

During Trump's presidency, the extent of China's international influence became increasingly apparent. The Chinese Communist Party's goal of becoming stronger and more influential around the world was pursued through various means:

1. Gaining control over international organizations: Chinese officials took over leadership positions in 15 different UN organizations, often making changes that aligned with Beijing's agenda.

2. The Belt and Road Initiative: This massive infrastructure project aimed to connect dozens of countries through new trade routes controlled by Beijing, increasing China's economic and political influence.

3. The United Front Work Department: This branch of the Communist Party worked to spread pro-China messaging and influence politics, media, and technology in other countries.

4. Confucius Institutes: These cultural exchange programs on university campuses around the world were identified by the FBI as potential intelligence-gathering operations for the Chinese government.

The extent of China's influence operations became more widely recognized in 2018 when researcher Alex Joske revealed how United Front Work representatives at the Australian Policy Institute were attempting to promote social and racial divisions to influence Australian politics, media, and technology.

In the US, the United Front Work Department was behind many Chinese-funded think tanks and cultural establishments. The Confucius Institutes, in particular, became a concern for US intelligence agencies. By 2018, there were over 500 Confucius Institutes and 2,000 Confucius Classrooms around the world, with about 60 still operating in the US despite warnings from the FBI about their potential for intelligence gathering.

Escalating Tensions and Missed Opportunities

As 2019 began, the extent of China's aggressive actions both domestically and internationally became harder to ignore. Even Vice President Mike Pence began speaking out publicly against China's behavior, calling attention to the United Front Work activities and China's attempts to plant anti-Trump articles in American newspapers.

Several events during this period highlighted the growing tensions between the US and China:

1. The arrest of Meng Wanzhou: In late 2018, the US Justice Department arrested the CFO of Huawei, raising questions about the trustworthiness of Chinese telecom giants and their ties to the Communist Party.

2. The Hong Kong protests: Pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong opposed China's tightening grip on the region, but Trump remained largely silent on the issue while trade negotiations were ongoing.

3. China's pressure on international businesses: Beijing increased its aggression toward any international businesses that showed support for Hong Kong or mentioned Hong Kong or Taiwan as being independent from China.

Despite these escalating tensions, Trump's administration often missed opportunities to take a firm stance against China's actions. For example:

1. At the 2019 G20 summit in Osaka, Trump unexpectedly declared that US companies were free to deal with Huawei, contradicting earlier restrictions and confusing his own administration.

2. Trump refused to interfere when China pressured the NBA over a tweet by Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey supporting Hong Kong protesters, demonstrating China's growing influence over American businesses.

These missed opportunities and inconsistent responses highlighted the ongoing chaos in the Trump administration's approach to China, as well as the complex economic ties that made it difficult for the US to take a strong stance against Beijing's actions.

The COVID-19 Pandemic and China's Information Suppression

The beginning of 2020 brought a brief moment of optimism with the signing of the Phase One trade deal between the US and China. However, this goodwill was short-lived as news of a mysterious virus emerging in China began to reach American shores.

The COVID-19 pandemic offered another stark example of how the Chinese Communist Party suppresses information:

1. Beijing's official version claimed the virus originated in a seafood market in Wuhan, but the market was cleared and cleaned before a proper investigation could be conducted.

2. The proximity of the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) to the market raised questions, especially given that the institute was working with coronavirus variants genetically similar to COVID-19.

3. Researchers at WIV were engaged in controversial gain-of-function experiments, deliberately making viruses more contagious to study their risks to humans.

4. The Chinese regime silenced researchers and scientists who spoke about the outbreak in its early days.

5. Beijing repeatedly downplayed the danger of COVID-19 in the initial months of the pandemic.

Trump's response to the pandemic was initially to echo China's message, downplaying the severity of the virus. However, as the global impact of COVID-19 became undeniable, Trump's rhetoric shifted dramatically. He began frequently using the term "China virus" and allowed his hawks to announce sanctions and point to human rights violations.

China's response to the pandemic further strained international relations. Beijing used humanitarian aid as a political lever, refusing to send medical supplies to nations that didn't accept its rules on Taiwan and Hong Kong. This behavior highlighted the ongoing challenges in dealing with China's growing global influence.

The Complexities of US-China Economic Ties

As the 2020 US presidential election approached, the Trump administration's stance on China hardened considerably. However, the reality of strong economic ties between the two countries made it difficult to enact significant changes in policy.

Several factors contribute to the complexity of US-China economic relations:

1. US investors have substantial investments in Chinese businesses, often through intermediaries like MSCI, the world's largest index provider.

2. Millions of Americans, including federal employees and former military personnel, are unknowingly investing in Chinese companies through their retirement funds.

3. Some of these investments go to companies like Hikvision, which provides technology used in the surveillance and internment of Uyghurs, and the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, which manufactures missiles for the Chinese military.

4. China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange holds approximately three trillion US investment dollars, which are vital to the stability of the Communist Party.

These deep financial ties make it challenging for the US to take strong action against China without potentially harming its own economic interests. For example:

1. When Senator Marco Rubio attempted to pressure MSCI and the federal retirement board to manage their indexes better and exclude certain Chinese companies, he was unsuccessful.

2. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin advised Trump against taking action on this issue, citing concerns about market stability and potential negative impacts on MSCI.

The intertwining of the US and Chinese economies means that America's negotiating position against China remains weak, despite rhetoric and limited actions like tariffs and sanctions. Future administrations will need to grapple with these complex connections as they formulate their China policies.

The Challenges Ahead for US-China Relations

As the Trump presidency came to an end, the state of US-China relations remained fraught with tension and uncertainty. The chaotic approach of the Trump administration had produced few concrete results in addressing the many challenges posed by China's rising power and influence.

Looking ahead, several key issues will likely continue to shape US-China relations:

1. Economic interdependence: The deep financial ties between the two countries will make it difficult for the US to take strong action against China without risking economic repercussions at home.

2. Technological competition: The race for dominance in areas like 5G networks, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing will remain a source of tension and potential conflict.

3. Human rights concerns: China's treatment of ethnic minorities, particularly the Uyghurs, and its crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong will continue to be points of contention.

4. Geopolitical rivalries: China's assertiveness in the South China Sea and its growing global influence through initiatives like the Belt and Road project will challenge US interests around the world.

5. Cybersecurity and intellectual property theft: Addressing China's ongoing efforts to steal technology and trade secrets from US companies and government agencies will remain a priority.

6. Climate change cooperation: Despite tensions in other areas, finding ways to work together on addressing global climate change may be crucial for both countries and the world.

Future US administrations will need to navigate these complex issues while balancing domestic political pressures, economic interests, and strategic concerns. The challenge will be to develop a more coherent and consistent approach to China that can effectively protect US interests while avoiding unnecessary escalation or conflict.

Some potential strategies for future US policy towards China might include:

1. Building stronger alliances with other countries in the Asia-Pacific region to counterbalance China's influence.

2. Investing in domestic research and development to maintain technological leadership.

3. Strengthening cybersecurity defenses and international cooperation to combat intellectual property theft.

4. Engaging in targeted economic measures that address specific concerns without undermining the broader economic relationship.

5. Maintaining open channels of communication with Beijing to manage crises and find areas of potential cooperation.

6. Promoting human rights and democratic values through multilateral institutions and diplomatic channels.

Ultimately, the US-China relationship will likely remain one of the most critical and complex diplomatic challenges for years to come. The lessons learned from the chaotic approach of the Trump years may help inform a more strategic and effective policy in the future, but the fundamental tensions between these two global powers are likely to persist.

Conclusion

Josh Rogin's "Chaos Under Heaven" provides a detailed and insightful look into the tumultuous relationship between the United States and China during the Trump administration. The book highlights the internal conflicts, policy debates, and diplomatic challenges that shaped America's approach to dealing with an increasingly assertive and powerful China.

Key takeaways from the book include:

1. The Trump administration was deeply divided between hawks who wanted to take a tough stance on China and doves who favored a more diplomatic approach.

2. Trump's personal desire to strike a trade deal with China and his on-again, off-again friendship with Xi Jinping often led to inconsistent policies and missed opportunities to address serious concerns.

3. China's human rights abuses, particularly the treatment of Uyghurs in Xinjiang, became increasingly difficult to ignore but did not always translate into concrete policy actions.

4. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted China's information suppression tactics and strained relations between the two countries further.

5. Deep economic ties between the US and China make it challenging to take strong action without potential negative consequences for both nations.

As the world moves forward, the complex relationship between the United States and China will continue to be a critical factor in shaping global affairs. The challenges highlighted in "Chaos Under Heaven" – from economic interdependence and technological competition to human rights concerns and geopolitical rivalries – will likely persist and evolve.

Future administrations will need to learn from the mistakes and missed opportunities of the Trump years to develop a more coherent and effective strategy for dealing with China. This will require balancing firm stances on issues of concern with pragmatic engagement where cooperation is possible and necessary.

Ultimately, the story told in "Chaos Under Heaven" serves as a cautionary tale about the dangers of an inconsistent and divided approach to foreign policy, especially when dealing with a rising global power like China. It also underscores the need for a nuanced understanding of the complex ties that bind the US and China, even as the two nations compete for global influence.

As the world continues to grapple with the implications of China's rise, the insights provided by Rogin's work will remain valuable for policymakers, diplomats, and anyone seeking to understand the intricate dynamics of US-China relations in the 21st century.