Destined for War Summary

“War between the US and China is not inevitable, but without careful management and mutual understanding, the conditions for conflict may become unavoidable.”

1. The Thucydides Trap: A Framework to Understand US-China Tensions

The ancient historian Thucydides observed that war often breaks out when a rising power threatens an established one. This dynamic, known as the Thucydides Trap, explains the causes of many global conflicts. Graham Allison uses this framework to interpret the current geopolitical tension between the US and China. China's rapid ascent as a global industrial and economic leader mirrors historical patterns that frequently led to war.

In ancient Greece, Athens's rise made Sparta fearful, which led to the Peloponnesian War. Today, the US and China find themselves in a similar dynamic. As China grows richer and more influential, the US perceives an increasing threat to its global dominance. This unease manifests in policy shifts, protective trade measures, and even military posturing, reflecting the fear-driven decisions described by Thucydides over two millennia ago.

China’s transformation is extraordinary: it has become the world’s largest manufacturer and is on track to achieve top economic status. Meanwhile, the US has spent decades as the world's leader and feels the pressure of its potential displacement. The lesson from history is clear: when such two forces collide, conflict often follows, but it is avoidable with strategic decision-making.

Examples

• The Peloponnesian War as the classic case of Thucydides's observation.
• The US government’s pivot towards Asia in 2011, highlighting concerns about China's rise.
• China's claim of dominance in sectors such as technology and manufacturing, creating rivalry with US industries.

2. China's Meteoric Rise as a Global Power

China's rapid growth over the last decades is unprecedented in modern history. Once a largely agrarian society, it has become a technological and industrial juggernaut. This dramatic transformation has positioned it to challenge US hegemony, altering the balance of global power.

Starting in the 1970s, China opened up to the world, modernized its economy, built infrastructure, and lifted millions of people out of poverty. By 2014, the average life expectancy had doubled since 1949, and its GDP jumped to 61% of America's—an astronomical increase from just 7% in 1980. Domestically, China became the foremost producer of vital goods like computers, clothing, and steel.

This kind of dynamic growth alarms other global players. China's ability to catch up with—and potentially surpass—Western powers is fueling tensions. But the rise of a new power doesn't necessarily have to lead to conflict; it depends on how established powers respond.

Examples

• In 1971, Henry Kissinger described China as a "backwater"; by 2005, it was producing infrastructure equivalent to Ancient Rome’s scale every two weeks.
• Between 2008 and 2017, China’s GDP grew faster than nearly the rest of the world combined.
• China's dominant role in industries such as aluminum production and tech manufacturing.

3. The Power Shift Creates Global Instability

As China gains influence, the global political order becomes destabilized. Historically, power shifts often create insecurity and competition. This atmosphere can ignite even minor disputes into larger conflicts, a risk observed repeatedly in history.

Redistribution of power impacts geopolitics like shifting tectonic plates. For example, when Japan rose at the turn of the 20th century, it entered into armed conflicts with both China and Russia to assert control in East Asia. Similarly, Germany’s rapid industrial growth in the 19th century led to the Franco-Prussian War. These instances demonstrate the difficulty of maintaining peace during periods of global transition.

Tensions between China and the US are mounting due to such instability. The US's efforts to maintain its hold and China's determination to expand leave little room for error. Misunderstandings or minor provocations could spark larger disputes.

Examples

• Japan’s victories against China and Russia during its rapid modernization period.
• The Franco-Prussian War led by rising Germany against France, an established power.
• Britain's decisive naval dominance over revolutionary France in 1805.

4. Sparks Could Ignite a US-China Conflict

There are a variety of triggers that could lead the US and China into war. Analysts compare these scenarios to wildfires during peak fire season—when conditions are right, even minor sparks can set off catastrophic events.

One scenario involves naval accidents in the contested South China Sea, where Chinese and US vessels patrol in close proximity. Another revolves around Taiwan: its movement toward independence could provoke a military intervention from China, drawing the US into the fray under its defense obligations. Even third-party actions, such as Japan’s military assertions over disputed territories, could intensify the conflict.

Other sparks include North Korea's instability or escalating trade wars. Moves like cyberattacks launched between the nations could spiral into physical confrontations. Given how tensions are building, all these scenarios suggest the atmosphere is ripe for escalation unless managed carefully.

Examples

• Chinese Coast Guard harassment of US destroyers in disputed waters.
• Taiwan's independence movement and the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act binding US intervention.
• Potential trade conflicts escalating via sanctions and cyberattacks.

5. Lessons from History Illustrate Peaceful Resolutions

While conflict often emerges during power transitions, history also shows that peace is possible. Strategic diplomacy, mutual respect, and long-term planning have allowed nations to avoid war in the past.

In the 15th century, Spain and Portugal settled their territorial rivalry through the Treaty of Tordesillas, mediated by the Pope. Similarly, in the 20th century, Britain worked diplomatically with the rising US to ensure a peaceful transition of power. During the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union avoided direct conflict, partly because of deterrents like nuclear weapons and partly because of carefully crafted alliances.

For the US and China, these historical cases offer a glimmer of hope. If both nations focus on compromise and shared interests, they could avoid war and instead find ways to coexist.

Examples

• Spain and Portugal resolving disputes over Latin America territories.
• Britain creating alliances as it ceded dominance to the US.
• The Cold War’s strategy of Mutually Assured Destruction preventing all-out war.

6. The Importance of Reevaluating US-China Relations

The US must rethink its stance: does China’s rise inherently threaten American prosperity? Or can both nations find a way to thrive simultaneously? These questions are fundamental to constructing policies that promote peace rather than rivalry.

China is expanding in spheres like technology, production, and trade. The US must decide whether to cooperate and share the global stage or attempt to contain China’s growth. Strategies for coexistence must underline the mutual benefits, rather than seeing China’s power solely as a risk.

Collaborative efforts, such as combating climate change or addressing terrorism, could encourage a shift in perspective—from competition to partnership. A strong understanding of each other’s aspirations is vital.

Examples

• Reevaluating alliances to support mutual trade between major powers.
• Disengaging from zero-sum thinking about global resource control.
• Highlighting global challenges like climate change as opportunities to unite rather than divide.

7. Redefining Global Threats to Foster Unity

China and the US face shared dangers: terrorism, climate change, and economic instability. These universal problems create opportunities for cooperation. By addressing these as common priorities, mistrust could fade while respecting each other’s sovereignty.

For example, both nations face extreme weather events tied to climate change. Tackling this issue together could reduce hostility and build rapport. Similarly, joining forces against global terrorism could show how their combined efforts yield better results.

Framing the relationship around shared problems could ease growing tensions. Rather than only fearing the unknown in each other, the two nations could focus on ensuring global stability.

Examples

• Joint discussions about reducing carbon emissions from the world’s two largest economies.
• US-China cooperation on counterterrorism after 9/11 set a precedent.
• Research collaborations addressing global health pandemics.

8. Averting Conflict Through Strategic Agreements

Strategic compromises, like trade negotiations or military de-escalation agreements, can prevent conflict. When two powers agree on boundaries and align interests, they lower the chances of misunderstandings and confrontations.

For instance, the US could agree to troop withdrawals in certain areas if China makes strides toward regional peace. Or, economic treaties balancing tariffs and investments could foster goodwill. Agreements stabilizing flashpoints like Taiwan would de-escalate tensions significantly.

The cost of war is enormous; these alternatives offer savings in both blood and treasure. Agreements take careful negotiation but ultimately secure more lasting peace.

Examples

• Treaty negotiations after World War II set terms for reconciliation in Europe.
• US withdrawal agreements in Vietnam prioritize avoiding prolonged hostilities.
• Compromises over Cold War buffer zones, preventing Soviet-NATO wars.

9. Shared Prosperity as a Path to Peace

Economic interdependence reduces the desire for war. If the interests of the US and China align through mutually beneficial trade, their relationship could stabilize. This approach suggests that investments, rather than weapons, should define their rivalry.

Building relationships through commerce allows both nations to focus on shared growth instead of competition. Increased trade partnerships or tech collaboration could ease hostilities, setting the stage for a peaceful future.

Economic competition doesn’t have to mean conflict. Together, they can lead innovation and prosperity, spreading economic benefits across the globe.

Examples

• China’s participation in the global supply chain benefits both nations’ economies.
• Trade partnerships between former rivals, like the European Union’s model.
• Increasing foreign direct investment to deepen US-China business ties.

Takeaways

1. Examine shared challenges, like climate change, for collaboration rather than conflict opportunities.
2. Strengthen diplomatic channels and prioritize negotiation to handle flashpoints, including Taiwan and trade disputes.
3. Focus on economic partnerships that bring mutual benefits, turning competition into an enduring alliance.