Introduction
In "Destined for War," Graham Allison explores the complex relationship between the United States and China, drawing on historical insights to analyze the potential for conflict between these two global powers. The book's central premise is based on the concept of "Thucydides's Trap," named after the ancient Greek historian who observed that when a rising power threatens to displace an established one, war is often the result.
Allison's work is particularly relevant in today's geopolitical landscape, where China's rapid ascent has led to increasing tensions with the United States. The author examines this dynamic through the lens of historical precedents, offering a thought-provoking analysis of whether war between these two nations is inevitable or if there's a path to peaceful coexistence.
China's Meteoric Rise
One of the key themes in Allison's book is the extraordinary pace of China's growth and development over the past few decades. This transformation has been nothing short of remarkable:
From Backwater to Global Powerhouse
In the early 1970s, when Henry Kissinger visited China, he encountered a largely rural, underdeveloped nation. Fast forward to today, and China has become a global economic and industrial powerhouse. This rapid transition has been likened to a combination of the English Industrial Revolution and the global information revolution, but occurring at an unprecedented speed.
Economic Dominance
China's economic growth has been staggering. Between 1980 and 2017, China's GDP grew from just 7% of the US's to 61%. To put this into perspective, every two years since 2008, the increase in China's GDP has been equivalent to the entire economy of India. Even during the global financial crisis, when growth slowed worldwide, China's economy continued to outpace others.
Manufacturing Supremacy
China has become the world's dominant manufacturer, leading in the production of a wide range of goods including aluminum, ships, computers, cell phones, clothing, and furniture. This manufacturing prowess has been a key driver of its economic success.
Infrastructure Development
The scale and speed of China's infrastructure development have been astounding. By 2005, China was building the equivalent of Rome's square footage every two weeks as part of its modernization efforts.
Quality of Life Improvements
Along with economic growth, China has seen significant improvements in the quality of life for its citizens. Between 1949 and 2014, the average life expectancy of Chinese citizens doubled.
The Thucydides Trap
Allison introduces the concept of the "Thucydides Trap," which forms the core of his analysis:
Historical Context
The term is derived from the observations of the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who wrote about the Peloponnesian War between Sparta (the established power) and Athens (the rising power). Thucydides concluded that it was Athens' rise and the fear this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.
Modern Application
Allison and his team at Harvard identified 16 historical cases where a rising power threatened to displace a ruling one. In 12 of these cases, the result was war. This pattern suggests that the current situation between the US and China is fraught with danger.
Structural Stress
The redistribution of power causes significant geopolitical stress at a structural level. This creates a dynamic where even ordinary points of tension, which could usually be resolved amicably, can become flashpoints for major conflicts.
Historical Examples of the Thucydides Trap
Allison provides several historical examples to illustrate how the Thucydides Trap has played out in the past:
Japan's Rise in the Early 20th Century
Japan's rapid industrialization and military buildup in the late 19th and early 20th centuries led to conflicts with established powers like Russia and, eventually, the United States. Japan's sense of entitlement grew with its power, leading to aggressive expansionism.
Germany and France in the 19th Century
The unification and rapid growth of Germany under Otto von Bismarck led to tensions with the established power of France. Bismarck strategically used conflict with France to rally support for German unification, ultimately leading to the Franco-Prussian War of 1870.
Britain and France in the Napoleonic Era
In 1805, Britain, the established naval power, faced a significant challenge from a rapidly transforming France under Napoleon Bonaparte. This led to a decisive naval battle where Britain consolidated its dominance.
Potential Flashpoints Between the US and China
Allison identifies several scenarios that could potentially lead to conflict between the US and China:
Naval Collisions
With China claiming sovereignty over the South China Sea and the US maintaining a naval presence in the region, accidental collisions between vessels could escalate into larger conflicts.
Taiwan's Independence Movement
If Taiwan moves towards formal independence, it could prompt a military intervention from China. The US, bound by the Taiwan Relations Act, might be drawn into the conflict.
Third-Party Instigation
Countries like Japan or North Korea could inadvertently spark a conflict that draws in both the US and China. For instance, Japanese activity on the disputed Senkaku Islands could lead to a confrontation with China, potentially involving the US due to its defense treaty with Japan.
North Korean Collapse
The potential collapse of the North Korean regime could lead to a scramble between the US and China to secure the country's nuclear weapons or establish influence in the region.
Trade Conflicts
Escalating trade disputes and economic sanctions could potentially evolve into cyber warfare or even physical conflict.
Navigating the Thucydides Trap
While the historical precedents and current tensions might suggest that conflict is inevitable, Allison argues that war between the US and China is not a foregone conclusion. He offers several strategies for avoiding conflict:
Accommodation and Compromise
Just as Spain and Portugal found a way to divide their spheres of influence in the 15th century, the US and China could potentially find ways to accommodate each other's core interests without resorting to conflict.
Strategic Reassessment
US policymakers need to critically evaluate whether a more powerful China truly threatens vital US interests, or if the US could still prosper in a world where China has more influence.
Redefining the Relationship
The US and China could focus on shared interests and common threats, such as global terrorism or climate change, to reframe their relationship as a partnership rather than a rivalry.
Careful Diplomacy
The example of Britain's peaceful acceptance of the US's rise to global prominence in the early 20th century shows that careful diplomacy and alliance-building can help manage power transitions without conflict.
The Role of Nuclear Weapons
Allison notes that the presence of nuclear weapons adds a new dimension to the Thucydides Trap dynamic. The threat of mutually assured destruction served as a deterrent to direct conflict during the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union. This factor could potentially play a similar role in US-China relations.
Economic Interdependence
Unlike many historical examples, the US and China are deeply interconnected economically. This interdependence could serve as a brake on conflict, as both nations have much to lose from a breakdown in relations.
The Importance of Leadership
Allison emphasizes the crucial role that leadership plays in navigating these challenging dynamics. Wise, forward-thinking leadership on both sides will be essential to avoid stumbling into war.
Domestic Factors
The book also touches on how domestic politics in both countries can influence their international behavior. In China, the Communist Party's need to maintain legitimacy through economic growth and nationalism can drive more assertive policies. In the US, political polarization and debates over the country's global role can affect its approach to China.
The Need for Strategic Thinking
Allison argues that both countries need to engage in long-term strategic thinking rather than being driven by short-term crises or political considerations. This involves understanding each other's core interests, red lines, and potential areas for cooperation.
The Global Impact
The book underscores that the outcome of US-China relations will have far-reaching consequences for the entire world. Other nations will need to navigate carefully between these two powers, and global issues like climate change and international trade will be significantly affected by how this relationship evolves.
Conclusion
"Destined for War" provides a sobering analysis of the challenges facing US-China relations. While historical patterns suggest that conflict is likely when a rising power threatens an established one, Allison argues that war is not inevitable. Through careful diplomacy, strategic thinking, and a willingness to accommodate each other's core interests, the US and China have the potential to defy historical precedent and find a peaceful way forward.
The book serves as a call to action for policymakers, diplomats, and citizens to understand the gravity of the situation and work towards avoiding the Thucydides Trap. It emphasizes that the choices made by leaders and populations in both countries will play a crucial role in determining whether the 21st century is marked by conflict or cooperation between these two great powers.
Ultimately, "Destined for War" is not just about predicting the future but about shaping it. By understanding the historical patterns and current dynamics at play, Allison hopes to contribute to efforts to steer US-China relations away from conflict and towards a more stable, peaceful coexistence. The stakes could not be higher, as the outcome of this relationship will undoubtedly shape the course of global history for decades to come.