How Big Things Get Done Summary

Why do megaprojects so often fail? The secret isn't just in what you start with—it's how you think about the end and the small steps in between.

1. The Iron Law of Megaprojects

Big projects, from government infrastructure to home renovations, tend to go over budget, over schedule, or both. This pattern is virtually universal and is called the "iron law of megaprojects." Research shows that only 8.5% of 16,000 examined projects hit time and cost goals. The consistent cause? Complexity.

Projects of any size rely on systems that are difficult to predict. Factors like mismanagement, unforeseen events, and shifting requirements disrupt timelines and budgets. Beyond the technical issues, the involvement of multiple stakeholders with conflicting interests adds delays and complications to high-stakes decisions.

Take the example of a couple planning a home renovation. A contractor estimated their costs at $260,000. Eighteen months later, they had already spent $1.3 million with the project still unfinished. These issues don't just surface in large-scale government projects; they can hit ordinary people trying to create something significant in their lives.

Examples

• Contractors struggling with delays on airport expansions.
• Homeowners underestimating the costs of remodels leading to blown budgets.
• Infrastructure projects like the Sydney Opera House, which was years late and far over budget.

2. Overcommitment Is a Trap

People often fall into the "commitment fallacy," refusing to abandon or change a project even when reality proves it unworkable. The belief that throwing more time and money into an idea will eventually yield success often leads to disaster.

The California high-speed rail project reflects this error. Initially valued at $33 billion with a completion goal of 2020, by 2019 the cost had ballooned to $80 billion, with just 20% completed. Officials clung to their original plan despite rising costs and logistical hurdles like environmental concerns and opposition from landowners.

To avoid sinking into this trap, it's vital to think realistically about a project's demands early on. Leaders also benefit from transparency about risks to maintain credibility. Flexibility is essential; those who adapt to hurdles can keep moving forward without compounding failures.

Examples

• California’s high-speed rail fiasco, plagued by overoptimistic planning.
• Businesses continuing with unprofitable products to salvage sunk costs.
• Home improvement projects stretched for years due to unwillingness to halt midstream.

3. Start with the End in Mind

If you’re overwhelmed by the scale of a big project, start backward. This method, called "thinking from right to left," focuses on identifying your ultimate goal and mapping steps from there.

Bilbao's Guggenheim Museum story is a prime example. The city's goal was economic growth. Officials didn't start by planning the building’s design but by visualizing their desired outcome—revitalizing the local economy through tourism. Then, they worked backward, identifying the partnerships and infrastructure needed to support a world-class museum.

This backward thinking creates clarity and organizes tasks by relevance to your end goal. Whether planning a family vacation or designing a skyscraper, seeing your endgame helps prune distractions and sets actionable priorities.

Examples

• The Guggenheim Bilbao’s planning for tourism-driven economic recovery.
• Entrepreneurs envisioning business success before outlining steps.
• Writers crafting a conclusive ending first and organizing the narrative backward.

4. Complexity Can't Be Controlled, but It Can Be Managed

Complex systems introduce a likelihood of disruptions. The key is recognizing that no amount of planning can predict every variable. But preparation can buffer against chaos.

Delays and unexpected costs often occur in projects where managers refuse to accommodate changes or misjudge potential conflict between decision-makers. Consider the construction of global airports—almost never on time, rarely within budget—largely due to underestimated requirements in coordination and resources.

Preparing for complexity means embracing backups, thinking slower but acting decisively, and treating flexibility not as a failure but as a strategy.

Examples

• Energy infrastructure projects delayed by supply bottlenecks.
• The Berlin Brandenburg Airport, repeatedly pushed back by unplanned complications.
• Medical research slowed by unforeseen resource constraints.

5. Transparency Builds Trust

Acknowledging possible setbacks openly with investors, partners, or communities prevents problems from snowballing. Projects often fail because of trust issues: decision-makers present false optimism to win approval. When setbacks arrive later, confidence collapses.

Had California’s rail project communicated its real challenges, public backlash might have softened. Such transparency reassures stakeholders that risks are acknowledged and being addressed rather than ignored.

Examples

• Oversharing risks and solutions in Tesla shareholder meetings.
• Open collaboration during disaster-relief projects instills confidence.
• Transparent reports from major corporate expansions, earning long-term investment support.

6. Modularity Magnifies Success

Large achievements begin with small, repeatable units. This goes by several names in industries, but modularity or breaking things into "Lego-like pieces" works across fields. Instead of tackling something enormous as a monolithic task, it’s far easier to produce dozens of smaller, manageable pieces.

Elon Musk adopted this concept for Tesla’s Gigafactory. He didn’t build the world's largest factory in one go. Instead, each section functioned like a "Lego block" added at the right time until the full structure emerged. By producing batteries in phases rather than waiting for the entire build, Tesla began earning revenue early.

Examples

• Tesla Gigafactories pioneered modular construction.
• Iterative web design develops sections piece by piece for testing.
• Wedding cake tiers constructed separately improve final output precision.

7. Fail Fast, Learn Faster

Mistakes aren't setbacks—they're learning opportunities. The principle of "failing fast" asks you to address and abandon weak ideas quickly rather than letting them snowball. If something in your small-unit plan malfunctions, refine it before scaling.

Bakers perfect elaborate creations through trial tiers first. Musicians test melodies before investing in full concert arrangements. It’s never about nailing perfection on attempt one— it’s about mastering adaptability for higher success rates through trials.

Examples

• Experiments with shuttle recovery helped SpaceX refine reusability.
• Software development stress-tests sections before broader launches.
• Rapid video-production cycles allowing YouTubers to tweak technique weekly.

8. Keep Stakeholders Engaged

Engaging regularly with all stakeholders—be it your team, investors, or end users—keeps confusion, delays, and resentment in check. People feel invested when they’re included, rather than managed.

Teams often fail because outreach stops at the top level. Mega projects thrive only by regularly connecting CEOs, contractors, and staff collectively rather than operating them in isolation. Public-facing projects face similar risks when they overlook affected local residents’ needs.

Examples

• Frequent community forums ahead of Olympic developments in London 2012.
• Project planners syncing global and site-specific engineering teams in Dubai.
• Schools involving parents in renovation priorities smoothing district challenges.

9. See Beyond Numbers

Building is never just "business"—emotional and cultural elements also impact success. A factory only thrives with buy-in from employees. An opera house becomes iconic by connecting emotionally with its audience.

When people focus narrowly on inputs and outputs—dollars or square feet—they miss the larger picture. Bilbao’s Guggenheim succeeded because it became more than a project inspired by numbers—it embodied regional pride and purpose.

Examples

• Public art instilled pride boosting Chicago parks' use rates.
• Landmark cafes fostering brands seen "beyond coffee" like Starbucks.
• Tech firms repositioned from salaries alone toward employee purpose.

Takeaways

1. Think backwards instead of ahead—define outcomes first, then map your journey in reverse.
2. Break down big ideas into bite-sized units; treat every step as its project possible to tweak.
3. Prioritize flexibility—to learn fast, fail fast, or pivot direction if reality demands.