In "How Democracies Die," Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt explore the fragile nature of democratic systems and how they can be eroded from within. The authors, both political scientists, draw on historical examples and current events to analyze the threats facing modern democracies, with a particular focus on the United States under the Trump administration.
The book argues that the collapse of democracies rarely happens through violent coups or sudden revolutions. Instead, it's often a gradual process where elected leaders slowly chip away at democratic norms and institutions. By examining case studies from various countries and time periods, Levitsky and Ziblatt identify patterns and warning signs that indicate when a democracy is at risk.
One of the central themes of the book is the importance of unwritten rules and norms in maintaining a healthy democracy. While constitutions and laws provide a framework, it's the adherence to these unspoken agreements that truly keeps the system functioning. When these norms begin to break down, it can set off a chain reaction that ultimately leads to the erosion of democratic principles.
The authors also delve into the specific challenges facing American democracy, tracing the roots of current political polarization and examining how the rise of Donald Trump fits into broader historical patterns. They offer insights into how the US political system has resisted authoritarian tendencies in the past and what steps might be necessary to protect democracy in the future.
"How Democracies Die" serves as both a warning and a call to action, urging readers to recognize the signs of democratic decay and take steps to preserve the institutions and norms that underpin free societies.
The Subtle Decline of Democracies
Contrary to popular belief, democracies rarely die suddenly or violently in the modern era. Instead, they often erode gradually, with elected leaders slowly dismantling democratic institutions from within. This process can be so subtle that many citizens may not even realize what's happening until it's too late.
Levitsky and Ziblatt argue that one of the most dangerous scenarios for democracy is when an autocratic leader rises to power through legitimate means. These leaders often come to office with the support of established politicians who believe they can control the newcomer. However, once in power, these demagogues can quickly consolidate their authority and begin to undermine democratic norms.
The authors point to several historical examples of this pattern, including Adolf Hitler's rise to power in Germany. In 1933, conservative leaders appointed Hitler as chancellor, thinking they could harness his popularity while keeping him in check. Within months, Hitler had outlawed opposition parties and transformed Germany into a dictatorship.
To help identify potential autocrats before they gain power, the authors propose four key warning signs:
- Rejection of democratic rules
- Denial of the legitimacy of political opponents
- Tolerance or encouragement of violence
- Willingness to curtail civil liberties or media freedom
These red flags can serve as early indicators that a politician may pose a threat to democratic institutions if given the opportunity.
The Importance of Gatekeepers
One of the crucial safeguards against the rise of autocrats is the presence of strong political parties that act as gatekeepers. These parties have traditionally played a vital role in vetting candidates and ensuring that those who reach high office are committed to democratic principles.
The authors argue that for much of American history, the two major political parties effectively performed this gatekeeping function. They point to examples like Henry Ford, who despite his popularity in the 1920s, was kept off the presidential ballot due to his extremist views.
However, the gatekeeping system began to break down in the latter half of the 20th century. The shift towards more open primary elections, while intended to increase democratic participation, also weakened the ability of party leaders to control who became their nominees.
This change set the stage for outsider candidates like Donald Trump to bypass traditional gatekeepers and appeal directly to voters. Trump's ability to self-fund his campaign and generate free media coverage allowed him to win the Republican nomination despite little support from party elites.
The authors argue that this breakdown of the gatekeeping function left American democracy more vulnerable to potential demagogues. They suggest that political parties need to find a balance between openness and maintaining some control over the nomination process to protect democratic norms.
The Gradual Erosion of Democratic Norms
Levitsky and Ziblatt emphasize that the dismantling of democracy is often a gradual process that occurs in stages. They outline three key steps that autocrats typically follow:
Capturing the referees: This involves gaining control over key institutions like the judiciary, law enforcement agencies, and electoral commissions. By appointing loyalists to these positions, autocrats can tilt the playing field in their favor.
Sidelining the opposition: This can be done through various means, such as using state resources to bribe or blackmail opponents, or changing laws to disadvantage opposition parties.
Changing the rules: Once the first two steps are accomplished, autocrats often move to alter the fundamental rules of the political system, such as changing electoral laws or constitutional provisions to entrench their power.
The authors provide examples of these tactics from various countries, including Venezuela under Hugo Chávez and Peru under Alberto Fujimori. They argue that these steps can be so incremental that they may not trigger immediate alarm, allowing autocrats to consolidate power before significant resistance can be mounted.
The Unwritten Rules of Democracy
While constitutions and laws provide the framework for democratic governance, Levitsky and Ziblatt argue that it's the unwritten rules and norms that truly keep democracy functioning. They identify two key norms that are essential for democratic stability:
Mutual toleration: This is the idea that political rivals should accept each other as legitimate competitors rather than treating them as existential threats or enemies of the state.
Institutional forbearance: This refers to the practice of exercising restraint in using one's institutional prerogatives. In other words, just because a political actor can do something legally doesn't mean they should if it violates the spirit of democracy.
The authors contend that these norms have been crucial in maintaining American democracy throughout its history. They point to examples like George Washington's decision to step down after two terms, setting a precedent that was followed for over 150 years until it was codified in the Constitution.
However, Levitsky and Ziblatt argue that these norms have been eroding in recent decades, particularly as political polarization has increased. They trace this erosion back to the 1960s, when issues of race and religion began to reshape party alignments in the United States.
The Roots of Modern Political Polarization
The authors delve into the historical factors that have contributed to the current state of intense political polarization in the United States. They argue that the realignment of the two major parties around issues of race and religion in the 1960s and 1970s set the stage for today's divisions.
Prior to this period, both parties had diverse coalitions that included liberal and conservative elements. However, the Civil Rights movement and subsequent cultural changes led to a sorting of voters along ideological lines. The Democratic Party became associated with civil rights and social progressivism, while the Republican Party increasingly appealed to white conservative voters, particularly in the South.
This realignment was further reinforced by demographic changes, including increased immigration and the declining proportion of white Christian voters in the electorate. As a result, the two parties became more homogeneous internally and more distinct from each other.
Levitsky and Ziblatt argue that this polarization has made it harder for politicians to find common ground and adhere to norms of mutual toleration and forbearance. They point to the rise of more combative political tactics, exemplified by figures like Newt Gingrich in the 1990s, as evidence of this trend.
The authors contend that this increasing polarization has created an environment where democratic norms are more easily violated, as politicians view their opponents not just as rivals but as existential threats to their vision of America.
The Trump Presidency and Democratic Norms
A significant portion of the book is dedicated to analyzing the presidency of Donald Trump and its implications for American democracy. Levitsky and Ziblatt argue that Trump's candidacy and subsequent administration have posed unique challenges to democratic norms and institutions.
The authors contend that Trump displayed all four warning signs of potential authoritarianism during his campaign:
- He frequently questioned the legitimacy of the electoral process, claiming it was "rigged."
- He delegitimized his opponents, calling for Hillary Clinton to be jailed.
- He tacitly encouraged violence at his rallies.
- He expressed a willingness to curtail civil liberties, particularly press freedom.
Once in office, the authors argue that Trump continued to push against democratic norms in various ways:
- Attempting to influence law enforcement investigations, including the firing of FBI Director James Comey.
- Attacking the legitimacy of the judiciary when rulings went against his policies.
- Undermining the credibility of the press by consistently labeling unfavorable coverage as "fake news."
- Blurring the lines between his personal business interests and his role as president.
Levitsky and Ziblatt express concern that these actions, while not necessarily illegal, represent a significant departure from the norms that have traditionally constrained presidential power in the United States.
However, they also note that American democratic institutions have shown resilience in the face of these challenges. Courts have blocked some of Trump's more controversial policies, the press has continued to investigate and report on the administration, and civil society organizations have mobilized to protect democratic norms.
The Role of Political Parties in Protecting Democracy
The authors argue that political parties, particularly the Republican Party in the case of Trump, play a crucial role in either enabling or constraining potential autocrats. They contend that the failure of Republican leaders to effectively oppose Trump during the primary process and their subsequent acquiescence to many of his norm-breaking behaviors have weakened democratic safeguards.
Levitsky and Ziblatt draw parallels to historical examples where established parties made fateful decisions to align themselves with populist outsiders. They point to the case of Venezuela, where mainstream politicians initially thought they could control Hugo Chávez, only to see him dismantle democratic institutions once in power.
The authors argue that political parties have a responsibility to maintain their gatekeeping function, even if it means short-term electoral losses. They cite the example of the Swedish Conservative Party in the 1930s, which expelled thousands of members with fascist sympathies, accepting a loss of votes to maintain democratic principles.
However, they also acknowledge the dilemma faced by party leaders when confronted with a popular figure who violates democratic norms. The fear of losing power or splitting the party can lead to a reluctance to stand up to such figures, even when they pose a threat to democratic institutions.
The Importance of Civic Engagement and Coalition Building
While much of the book focuses on the actions of political elites, Levitsky and Ziblatt also emphasize the crucial role that ordinary citizens play in protecting democracy. They argue that a vibrant civil society and engaged citizenry are essential bulwarks against autocratic tendencies.
The authors encourage readers to remain vigilant and to speak out against violations of democratic norms, regardless of which party is in power. They stress the importance of building broad coalitions that transcend partisan lines to defend core democratic principles.
Levitsky and Ziblatt also highlight the need for citizens to engage in the political process beyond just voting. This includes participating in local government, joining civic organizations, and staying informed about political issues. They argue that a well-informed and active citizenry is more likely to recognize and resist attempts to undermine democratic institutions.
Furthermore, the authors emphasize the importance of bridging social divides that contribute to political polarization. They suggest that efforts to address economic inequality and racial tensions could help reduce the appeal of populist demagogues who exploit these divisions.
The Global Context of Democratic Decline
While the book focuses primarily on the United States, Levitsky and Ziblatt place their analysis within a broader global context. They note that the challenges facing American democracy are part of a worldwide trend of democratic backsliding in recent years.
The authors point to examples from various countries where democratically elected leaders have gradually eroded democratic institutions and norms. These include Hungary under Viktor Orbán, Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Poland under the Law and Justice Party.
Levitsky and Ziblatt argue that this global trend is partly a result of economic and social changes brought about by globalization and technological advancement. These changes have created winners and losers, fueling resentment and populist movements that can threaten democratic stability.
The authors also discuss the role of international factors in either supporting or undermining democracy. They note that the retreat of the United States from its traditional role as a global promoter of democracy under the Trump administration has potentially emboldened autocratic leaders around the world.
The Future of American Democracy
In the concluding chapters of the book, Levitsky and Ziblatt offer their thoughts on the future of American democracy and potential paths forward. While they express concern about the current state of democratic norms and institutions, they also see reasons for hope.
The authors argue that the resilience of American democracy in the face of past challenges suggests that it can weather the current storm. They point to the strength of institutions like the judiciary and the press, as well as the vitality of civil society organizations, as sources of democratic resilience.
However, they caution that protecting democracy will require ongoing effort and vigilance. They offer several recommendations for strengthening democratic norms and institutions:
- Reinforce gatekeeping mechanisms within political parties to prevent the rise of anti-democratic candidates.
- Reform campaign finance laws to reduce the influence of money in politics.
- Address economic inequality and social divisions that fuel populist resentment.
- Strengthen civic education to ensure that citizens understand and value democratic norms.
- Build cross-partisan coalitions to defend core democratic principles.
Levitsky and Ziblatt emphasize that there are no easy solutions or quick fixes. Protecting and strengthening democracy will require sustained effort from both political leaders and ordinary citizens.
The Role of Compromise in Democracy
One of the key themes that emerges throughout the book is the importance of compromise in maintaining a healthy democracy. Levitsky and Ziblatt argue that the ability to find common ground and make concessions is essential for democratic stability.
The authors contend that extreme polarization and the view of politics as a zero-sum game are antithetical to democratic governance. They point out that in a diverse society like the United States, no single group can expect to have its way all the time. Democracy requires a willingness to accept partial victories and to respect the rights and views of those with whom we disagree.
Levitsky and Ziblatt suggest that political leaders have a responsibility to model this spirit of compromise. They argue that the demonization of political opponents and the refusal to engage in good-faith negotiations undermine the foundations of democratic governance.
The authors also discuss the challenges of finding compromise in an era of intense polarization. They acknowledge that on some issues, particularly those involving fundamental rights or democratic principles, compromise may not be possible or desirable. However, they argue that on many policy issues, there is room for negotiation and finding common ground.
The Importance of Democratic Norms in Everyday Life
While much of the book focuses on high-level political dynamics, Levitsky and Ziblatt also emphasize the importance of democratic norms in everyday life. They argue that the health of a democracy depends not just on formal institutions, but on the attitudes and behaviors of ordinary citizens.
The authors suggest that the norms of mutual toleration and institutional forbearance that they identify as crucial for democracy at the national level are also important in local communities, workplaces, and other social settings. They argue that practicing these norms in our daily lives can help reinforce democratic culture more broadly.
Levitsky and Ziblatt encourage readers to reflect on how they can contribute to a healthier democratic culture in their own spheres of influence. This might involve:
- Engaging in respectful dialogue with those who hold different political views.
- Participating in local community organizations and decision-making processes.
- Supporting independent journalism and fact-based discourse.
- Calling out violations of democratic norms, even when committed by one's own political allies.
The authors argue that these small, everyday actions can collectively have a significant impact on the overall health of democracy.
The Role of Media in Democracy
Levitsky and Ziblatt dedicate considerable attention to the role of media in maintaining a healthy democracy. They argue that a free and independent press is essential for holding power to account and providing citizens with the information they need to make informed decisions.
However, the authors also express concern about the changing media landscape and its impact on democratic discourse. They point to several challenges:
- The rise of partisan media outlets that prioritize ideological alignment over factual reporting.
- The fragmentation of the media ecosystem, which allows people to exist in information bubbles that reinforce their existing beliefs.
- The spread of misinformation and "fake news" through social media platforms.
- The economic pressures facing traditional news organizations, which can compromise the quality and depth of reporting.
Levitsky and Ziblatt argue that these trends have contributed to political polarization and made it harder for citizens to find common ground. They suggest that addressing these challenges will require efforts from multiple stakeholders:
- Media organizations need to recommit to principles of factual, nonpartisan reporting.
- Citizens need to be more discerning consumers of news and seek out diverse sources of information.
- Policymakers need to consider regulations that address the spread of misinformation without infringing on free speech rights.
- Educators need to focus on media literacy to help future generations navigate the complex information landscape.
The authors emphasize that a well-functioning media ecosystem is crucial for maintaining the informed citizenry necessary for democracy to thrive.
The International Dimension of Democratic Resilience
While "How Democracies Die" focuses primarily on domestic factors, Levitsky and Ziblatt also touch on the international dimensions of democratic resilience. They argue that the health of democracy in one country can have significant impacts on others.
The authors discuss how the United States has historically played a role in promoting democracy abroad, both through direct support for democratic movements and by serving as a model of democratic governance. They express concern that the erosion of democratic norms in the U.S. could have ripple effects around the world, emboldening autocrats and disheartening pro-democracy activists.
Levitsky and Ziblatt also explore how international alliances and organizations can help support democracy. They point to examples like the European Union, which has mechanisms for holding member states accountable to democratic standards. However, they also note the limitations of these international efforts, particularly when powerful countries are unwilling to be constrained by external pressure.
The authors suggest that protecting democracy in the 21st century will require greater international cooperation. They argue for strengthening international institutions that promote democratic norms and for democracies to work together to counter the influence of authoritarian regimes.
Economic Inequality and Democratic Stability
Another important theme in the book is the relationship between economic inequality and democratic stability. Levitsky and Ziblatt argue that extreme economic disparities can create conditions that are ripe for democratic backsliding.
The authors point out that when large segments of the population feel economically marginalized or left behind, they become more susceptible to populist appeals and may be willing to support leaders who promise radical change, even at the expense of democratic norms. They cite examples from various countries where economic crises or persistent inequality have contributed to the rise of authoritarian leaders.
Levitsky and Ziblatt suggest that addressing economic inequality should be seen as a crucial part of protecting democracy. They argue for policies that promote more inclusive economic growth and strengthen social safety nets. However, they also acknowledge the challenges of implementing such policies in a polarized political environment.
The authors emphasize that economic policy should not be seen as separate from democratic governance but as an integral part of maintaining a stable democratic system. They argue that finding ways to create more shared prosperity is not just an economic imperative but a democratic one as well.
The Importance of Democratic Leadership
Throughout the book, Levitsky and Ziblatt emphasize the crucial role that political leaders play in either upholding or eroding democratic norms. They argue that democracy depends not just on institutions and laws, but on the choices and behaviors of those in positions of power.
The authors highlight examples of leaders who have chosen to respect democratic norms even when it was not in their short-term political interest to do so. They contrast these with leaders who have been willing to push the boundaries of democratic norms for political gain.
Levitsky and Ziblatt argue that true democratic leadership involves:
- Respecting the legitimacy of political opponents.
- Exercising restraint in the use of institutional powers.
- Accepting the results of free and fair elections, even when they are unfavorable.
- Prioritizing the long-term health of democratic institutions over short-term political victories.
The authors contend that cultivating this kind of leadership is essential for the future of democracy. They suggest that political parties, civil society organizations, and educational institutions all have a role to play in developing leaders who are committed to democratic principles.
Conclusion: The Ongoing Work of Democracy
In their conclusion, Levitsky and Ziblatt emphasize that protecting democracy is an ongoing process that requires constant vigilance and effort. They argue that there are no permanent victories in the struggle to maintain democratic institutions and norms.
The authors remind readers that democracy has faced significant challenges throughout history and has often emerged stronger as a result. However, they caution against complacency, noting that past resilience is no guarantee of future survival.
Levitsky and Ziblatt end with a call to action, urging readers to take an active role in defending and strengthening democracy. They argue that this work belongs not just to political leaders or experts, but to all citizens who value democratic governance.
The authors express cautious optimism about the future of democracy, particularly in the United States. They point to the resilience of institutions, the vitality of civil society, and the ongoing commitment of many citizens to democratic principles as reasons for hope.
However, they also stress that the outcome is not predetermined. The future of democracy, they argue, will depend on the choices and actions of both leaders and ordinary citizens in the years to come. By understanding the threats to democracy and committing to uphold democratic norms in our daily lives, we can all play a part in ensuring that democracy not only survives but thrives in the face of current and future challenges.