How to Decide

Good decisions don’t always lead to good outcomes, and bad outcomes don’t always mean bad decisions. The process matters more than the result.

1. Stop Judging Decisions by Their Outcomes

We often judge the quality of a decision based on its result. This is called "resulting" or "outcome bias." It’s a mental shortcut that tricks us into thinking a good result means the decision was good, and a bad result means the decision was bad. But this ignores the role of luck and other factors beyond our control.

For example, imagine running a red light and not getting into an accident. The outcome was positive, but the decision to run the light was still reckless. Similarly, a well-thought-out decision can lead to a bad result due to unforeseen circumstances. By focusing only on outcomes, we fail to learn from the decision-making process itself.

To avoid this trap, we need to separate the decision from the result. Instead of asking, "Did it work out?" ask, "Did I use the best process with the information I had?" This shift helps us improve future decisions, regardless of whether past outcomes were good or bad.

Examples

• A gambler wins big on a risky bet but doesn’t realize it was pure luck, not skill.
• A company launches a product that fails due to market conditions, not poor planning.
• A driver avoids an accident after texting while driving, falsely believing the behavior is safe.

2. Hindsight Bias Distorts Our Memory

Hindsight bias makes us believe we "knew it all along" after an event occurs. This false sense of foresight can distort how we remember decisions, making it harder to learn from them. We convince ourselves that the outcome was inevitable, even though it wasn’t.

For instance, after a sports team loses, fans often claim they "knew" the team would fail. But before the game, they likely had no such certainty. This bias rewrites our memory, blending what we knew before the decision with what we learned after the outcome.

To combat hindsight bias, use a "knowledge tracker." Write down what you know and believe before making a decision. After the outcome, compare this list to what you’ve learned since. This practice helps you see what information you missed and prevents your memory from being rewritten.

Examples

• Investors claim they "knew" a stock would crash after it happens, ignoring their earlier optimism.
• A student says they "always knew" they’d fail a test, even though they studied hard.
• A manager believes they predicted a project’s failure, but their earlier notes show confidence.

3. Learn from Patterns, Not Single Outcomes

One decision doesn’t provide enough data to learn from. To improve, we need to look at patterns across multiple decisions. This means gathering data from similar situations and imagining alternative outcomes.

For example, if you’re job hunting, don’t just analyze one interview. Reflect on several interviews and imagine how different answers or approaches might have changed the results. This "counterfactual thinking" helps you identify what works and what doesn’t.

By comparing multiple decisions, you can spot trends and refine your process. This approach is like running a scientific experiment: the more data points you have, the more reliable your conclusions will be.

Examples

• A chef experiments with different recipes to find the best version of a dish.
• A salesperson reviews multiple pitches to see which strategies close the most deals.
• A writer tests different story ideas to learn what resonates with readers.

4. Use a Six-Step Process for Better Decisions

Big decisions can feel overwhelming, but breaking them into smaller steps makes them manageable. The six-step process involves identifying options, weighing outcomes, and comparing probabilities to align your choice with your values.

Start by listing realistic options and their possible outcomes. Then, evaluate the pros and cons of each outcome based on your goals. Next, estimate how likely each outcome is and compare the probabilities. Repeat this for all options, then make your final choice.

This method helps you make informed decisions by focusing on what you can control: the quality of your process. While you can’t eliminate uncertainty, you can reduce it by gathering accurate information and thinking systematically.

Examples

• Deciding whether to move to a new city by listing pros and cons for each location.
• Choosing between job offers by comparing salary, growth opportunities, and work-life balance.
• Planning a vacation by evaluating costs, activities, and weather for different destinations.

5. Be Precise About Uncertainty

Vague terms like "probably" or "might" can lead to misunderstandings. Instead, use numerical ranges to express uncertainty. This clarity invites others to provide helpful feedback and improves decision-making.

For instance, saying "I’m 70% sure" is more informative than saying "I think so." It shows you’re open to input and aware of what you don’t know. This approach is common in high-stakes fields like law and medicine, where precision matters.

To create a numerical range, use a "shock test." Ask yourself if you’d be surprised if the outcome fell outside the range. Adjust the range until it feels realistic but not overly broad.

Examples

• A doctor tells a patient there’s a 30–40% chance of side effects, rather than saying "it’s possible."
• A project manager estimates a task will take 2–3 weeks, instead of saying "a few weeks."
• A mechanic says a repair is 80% likely to be done by Friday, rather than "probably by Friday."

6. Balance Your Perspective

We all have blind spots in our decision-making. To see the full picture, combine your "inside view" (your personal perspective) with the "outside view" (how others see the situation).

For example, if you’re considering a career change, your inside view might focus on your excitement and fears. The outside view might include statistics on success rates for similar transitions. By blending these perspectives, you can make a more balanced decision.

A simple way to do this is "perspective tracking." Write down your inside view and the outside view side by side. Look for overlaps and differences to identify biases or gaps in your thinking.

Examples

• A student weighs their own feelings about a major with advice from professors and alumni.
• A business owner considers customer feedback alongside their own vision for the company.
• A parent balances their child’s preferences with expert advice on education.

7. Save Time on Small Decisions

We spend too much time on repetitive, low-impact decisions like what to eat or watch. By streamlining these choices, we free up mental energy for more important decisions.

One way to do this is by using the "happiness test." Ask yourself if the decision will affect your happiness a year from now. If not, make the choice quickly and move on. Another strategy is "decision stacking," where you experiment with different options to learn what works best.

By simplifying small decisions, you can focus your energy on high-impact choices that truly matter.

Examples

• Meal prepping to avoid daily decisions about what to eat.
• Creating a capsule wardrobe to reduce time spent choosing outfits.
• Using a randomizer app to pick a movie instead of scrolling endlessly.

8. Plan for Obstacles

Positive thinking alone doesn’t lead to success. Instead, imagine potential obstacles and plan how to overcome them. This "mental contrasting" helps you anticipate challenges and stay prepared.

For example, if you’re starting a new fitness routine, think about what might derail you, like a busy schedule or lack of motivation. Then, create strategies to address these issues, such as setting reminders or finding a workout buddy.

You can also use "premortems" to identify reasons a plan might fail before it starts. This proactive approach helps you avoid common pitfalls and increases your chances of success.

Examples

• A student anticipates distractions and sets up a quiet study space.
• A traveler plans for flight delays by booking flexible tickets.
• A team identifies risks in a project and creates backup plans.

9. Get Honest Feedback

When asking for advice, don’t share your opinion first. Revealing your stance can bias others’ responses, as they may agree with you to avoid conflict or seem agreeable.

Instead, "quarantine" your beliefs by withholding them until you’ve heard others’ thoughts. In group settings, consider using anonymous feedback or starting with the most junior member to ensure everyone’s voice is heard.

This approach helps you gather diverse perspectives and make better decisions based on unbiased input.

Examples

• A manager asks team members for anonymous feedback on a proposal.
• A friend asks for movie recommendations without sharing their preferences first.
• A teacher solicits student opinions before revealing their own.

Takeaways

1. Use a knowledge tracker to separate what you knew before a decision from what you learned after the outcome.
2. Simplify small, repetitive decisions to save mental energy for bigger choices.
3. Plan for obstacles by imagining reasons a goal might fail and creating strategies to address them.