How to Future

“What if you could prepare for not just one future, but many? The art of futuring helps you navigate uncertainty and make better decisions today.”

1. The Future is Plural, Not Singular

We often think of "the future" as a single, inevitable outcome. However, the reality is that there are countless possible futures, each shaped by different events, decisions, and trends. Futuring is the practice of exploring these possibilities to prepare for what might come. It’s not about predicting the future but about understanding the range of what could happen.

For example, consider climate change. While we can’t predict exactly how it will unfold, we can explore scenarios where global temperatures rise by 1.5°C, 2°C, or more. Each scenario has different implications for governments, businesses, and individuals. By preparing for multiple outcomes, we can make better choices today.

This approach applies to personal decisions as well. Imagine planning your career. Instead of assuming one path, you could explore several possibilities: staying in your current field, switching industries, or starting a business. Each path requires different preparations, and futuring helps you identify what steps to take now.

Examples

• Climate change scenarios ranging from mild to severe impacts.
• A company preparing for both economic growth and recession.
• An individual planning for multiple career paths.

2. Start with a Clear Scope

Before diving into futuring, it’s important to define the scope of your exploration. This means understanding the purpose of the exercise, the resources available, and the audience for your findings. Without a clear scope, you risk wasting time on irrelevant possibilities.

For instance, if a company wants to future-proof its alternative energy technology, it needs to focus on trends in energy consumption, technological advancements, and environmental policies. It wouldn’t make sense to spend time exploring unrelated areas like fashion trends or food preferences.

Defining the scope also involves assembling a diverse team. Different perspectives lead to richer discussions and more creative ideas. A team with varied backgrounds—scientists, economists, and community leaders—can provide a broader view of what the future might hold.

Examples

• A company focusing on energy trends for a new product.
• A government planning for urban development in a specific region.
• A family deciding on financial strategies for the next decade.

3. Sensing: The Art of Noticing

Sensing is the skill of paying attention to the world around you and identifying signals of change. These signals can be small, like a new product gaining popularity, or large, like a shift in government policy. By noticing these signals, you can start to see patterns and trends that hint at what the future might hold.

For example, the rise of electric vehicles didn’t happen overnight. It started with small signals: early adopters buying hybrid cars, governments offering tax incentives, and companies investing in battery technology. By noticing these signals early, some businesses positioned themselves as leaders in the electric vehicle market.

Sensing requires curiosity and an open mind. It’s about looking beyond the obvious and questioning why things are changing. It also involves seeking out diverse sources of information, from news articles to social media to academic research.

Examples

• Observing the growing popularity of plant-based diets.
• Noticing a shift in consumer preferences toward sustainable products.
• Tracking changes in work-from-home policies across industries.

4. Scanning for Relevant Signals

While sensing is about noticing everything, scanning is more focused. It involves actively searching for signals related to a specific topic or question. This targeted approach helps you identify trends and the forces driving them.

For instance, if you’re exploring the future of renewable energy, you might scan for signals in areas like battery storage, government subsidies, and public opinion. By gathering information from multiple sources, you can start to see which trends are gaining momentum and which are fading.

Scanning also helps you avoid blind spots. If you only look at one type of source—like industry reports—you might miss important signals from other areas, like grassroots movements or international policies. A well-rounded scan provides a more complete picture of the future.

Examples

• Researching advancements in solar panel efficiency.
• Analyzing public opinion on renewable energy policies.
• Monitoring investments in wind energy technology.

5. Organize Trends with the STEEP Framework

Once you’ve identified trends, the next step is to organize them. The STEEP framework—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political—provides a simple way to categorize trends and understand their drivers.

For example, a trend like the rise of remote work could fall under multiple categories: Social (changing work habits), Technological (advances in communication tools), and Economic (cost savings for companies). By using the STEEP framework, you can see how different trends interact and influence each other.

Organizing trends also helps you identify gaps in your research. If you have a lot of information about technology but little about politics, you might need to adjust your focus. A balanced view ensures you’re considering all the factors that could shape the future.

Examples

• Categorizing the shift to electric vehicles under Technological and Environmental.
• Placing the rise of populism under Political and Social.
• Sorting trends in renewable energy by Economic and Environmental factors.

6. Map Trends onto Future Horizons

Not all trends will have an immediate impact. Some might take years to develop, while others could fade away quickly. Mapping trends onto future horizons helps you understand their timing and likelihood.

For instance, a trend like the adoption of hydrogen fuel cells might be in its early stages now but could become significant in 10 years. By assigning trends to short-, medium-, and long-term horizons, you can prioritize your efforts and plan accordingly.

This process also involves assessing the probability of each trend. Is it likely, plausible, or just possible? By considering both timing and likelihood, you can focus on the trends that matter most to your goals.

Examples

• Placing the rise of autonomous vehicles in a 10-year horizon.
• Assigning the decline of coal power to the next five years.
• Evaluating the probability of widespread 3D-printed homes.

7. Generate Threads of Possibility

Once you’ve mapped trends, the next step is to explore how they might interact. This involves creating threads—sequences of events that could unfold based on the trends you’ve identified. Threads help you see the ripple effects of different possibilities.

For example, if solar power becomes cheaper and more efficient, it could lead to increased adoption, reduced reliance on fossil fuels, and new economic opportunities. But what if a breakthrough in nuclear fusion disrupts this trend? Threads help you explore both positive and negative scenarios.

By generating multiple threads, you can prepare for a range of outcomes. This flexibility is key to making informed decisions in an uncertain world.

Examples

• Exploring how a shift to renewable energy could impact global trade.
• Considering the effects of automation on employment and education.
• Imagining the consequences of a major cybersecurity breach.

8. Craft Stories to Communicate Futures

Data and trends are important, but they’re not enough to convince others. To make your findings compelling, you need to turn them into stories. Stories help people understand the implications of different futures and connect emotionally to the possibilities.

For instance, if you’re presenting a future where algae-based fuel replaces gasoline, you might tell the story of a small town that thrives thanks to local algae farms. This narrative makes the future feel real and relatable, helping your audience see the benefits and challenges.

Stories also address concerns and questions. By anticipating what your audience might ask, you can craft a narrative that answers their doubts and builds trust in your vision.

Examples

• Telling the story of a family benefiting from affordable renewable energy.
• Imagining a city transformed by autonomous public transportation.
• Describing a community adapting to climate change with innovative solutions.

9. Futuring is an Ongoing Process

The future is always changing, so futuring is never finished. It’s a continuous process of sensing, scanning, and adapting. By staying curious and open to new possibilities, you can keep refining your understanding of what’s ahead.

For example, a company that successfully navigates one market shift might face new challenges in the next decade. By maintaining a futuring mindset, it can stay ahead of the curve and continue to thrive.

This mindset also applies to individuals. Whether you’re planning your career, finances, or personal goals, regularly revisiting your assumptions and exploring new possibilities can help you stay prepared for whatever comes next.

Examples

• A business adapting to new regulations by revising its strategy.
• An individual updating their career plan based on emerging industries.
• A community rethinking its disaster preparedness after a major event.

Takeaways

1. Regularly scan for signals of change in your industry or area of interest to stay informed about emerging trends.
2. Use the STEEP framework to organize and evaluate trends, ensuring you consider all relevant factors.
3. Practice crafting stories about possible futures to communicate your ideas effectively and inspire action.