Russian Roulette Summary

Did Russian efforts influence one of the most contentious elections in modern American history?

1. Trump’s Moscow Business Aspirations

Donald Trump’s 2013 visit to Moscow for the Miss Universe pageant wasn't solely a social endeavor; it was a pursuit of business expansion into Russia. Trump was eyeing a Moscow Trump Tower and sought President Putin’s approval to ensure its success.

During this visit, he collaborated with Aras Agalarov, a Russian billionaire, and his son, pop star Emin Agalarov, signing a preliminary deal. Trump was uncommonly vocal in his admiration for Putin, publicly praising him via social media to court favor. Despite a message from Agalarov indicating Putin wanted to meet, logistical issues meant the two never crossed paths.

The trip marked the beginning of Trump’s controversial connections with Russian elites. His determination to position himself as Putin’s ally highlights the blend of personal ambition and external influence that would later cloud his political career.

Examples

• Trump tweeted multiple times in admiration of Vladimir Putin's leadership and strength.
• Aras Agalarov handed Trump a message implying Putin’s interest in meeting him.
• Trump disregarded protest calls from Human Rights Campaign over Russia’s anti-gay laws, focusing instead on his Moscow project.

2. US-Russia Relations Rearmed

The Obama administration initially aimed to reset relations with Russia, but that ambition soured when Vladimir Putin regained the presidency in 2012. Putin’s return was marked by animosity toward the West, fueled by sanctions and political disputes.

With Secretary Clinton questioning the fairness of Russia's elections, Putin accused the US of fomenting anti-Russian protests. Things worsened with Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, leading to steep sanctions that crippled Trump's efforts to construct his Moscow Tower.

The diplomatic freeze reflected the shifting tone of cross-national relations, returning to the low temperatures of the Cold War era. For Trump, such icy relations blocked business pipelines while also securing resentment from Putin toward his political rival, Hillary Clinton.

Examples

• Secretary Clinton publicly questioned Russia’s election integrity, infuriating Putin.
• The US imposed sanctions on Russia after its annexation of Crimea.
• Trump abandoned plans for the Moscow Trump Tower due to Russia’s weakened economy.

3. A New Kind of Warfare: Cyber Hacking

By 2015, the Democratic Party discovered their network had been hacked. The culprits were Russian hackers associated with the GRU, an entity directly tied to the Kremlin.

These hackers gained access to confidential emails from key democratic figures like John Podesta. Their tactics also exploited social media, creating fake accounts to bolster disinformation campaigns against Democratic candidates and support Trump’s candidacy.

For Putin, this marked a dark strategy for disrupting American democracy – using cyber weapons to divide the electorate while undermining Clinton, whom he viewed as a personal enemy.

Examples

• Russian agents accessed John Podesta’s emails via a deceptive phishing email.
• Thousands of troll accounts targeted American voters with false narratives.
• FBI informed the DNC that they were among many entities targeted by Russian cyberattacks.

4. Trump’s Campaign Links to Russia

Trump’s team attracted members with questionable Russian ties, such as Paul Manafort, Carter Page, and George Papadopoulos. Manafort’s deep financial dealings with Russian oligarchs raised alarms, as did his prior involvement with Ukraine’s pro-Kremlin government.

Carter Page held ongoing connections to figures within Russian entities like Gazprom. Papadopoulos’ conversations with a Scottish professor linked to Russian officials only added layers of intrigue. Collectively, these staffers carried baggage that ensnared the Trump campaign into Russia’s web.

Examples

• Manafort had years of involvement with Oleg Deripaska, a powerful Kremlin-friendly oligarch.
• Carter Page gave a well-received speech at a Moscow university connected to Russia's government.
• Papadopoulos met Joseph Mifsud, who gave hints about Russians having dirt on Hillary Clinton.

5. A Missed Opportunity to Inform the Authorities

Despite multiple overtures from Russian-connected sources, Trump's campaign team did not alert law enforcement. A notable example came in June 2016 when Donald Trump Jr., Paul Manafort, and Jared Kushner attended a meeting with Russian representatives promising damaging information on Clinton.

Later, when evidence surfaced linking Russian efforts to the DNC hack, the Trump campaign continued to downplay these allegations and accused the Democrats of fabricating the claims instead of cooperating with the FBI.

Examples

• Donald Trump Jr. enthusiastically accepted an offer for a meeting about Clinton dirt.
• Jared Kushner and Paul Manafort were present at the Trump Tower meeting.
• When warned by the FBI, the Trump campaign dismissed the allegations publicly as a DNC ploy.

6. Russian Hacking Unveiled

By mid-2016, it became apparent that the stolen Democratic emails were being filtered through platforms like Wikileaks to harm Clinton’s campaign. The US intelligence community began investigating the connection between these leaks and Kremlin-supported entities.

Julian Assange’s timing of the Wikileaks releases added to suspicions, especially as they coincided with critical campaign moments. The catastrophic fallout for the Democratic Party fractured its internal unity, revitalizing debates around the source of embarrassing revelations.

Examples

• Wikileaks released DNC emails just before the Democratic National Convention.
• The leaked emails showed favoritism toward Clinton, angering Bernie Sanders supporters.
• Assange publicly denied connections to Russian entities, a claim widely questioned.

7. Obama Confronts Putin

At the G20 Summit in China during September 2016, President Obama held a discreet meeting with Putin, urging him to halt interference in the US election. Obama conveyed the risks of continued meddling, but Putin denied involvement.

Republican leaders refused to collaborate with Obama on issuing joint warnings to protect the election, fearing it would undermine Trump’s momentum. Consequently, statements from Obama’s administration on Russian interference fell short of highlighting its full scale.

Examples

• Obama and Putin met privately with only translators in attendance during the G20.
• Mitch McConnell opposed publicly addressing the interference allegations pre-election.
• Homeland Security released a cryptic statement about Russian-linked hacks in October.

8. Scandals Overshadow Important Revelations

October 7, 2016, turned into a whirlwind news day. The explosive release of Trump’s Access Hollywood tape diverted attention from government announcements about Russian state-sponsored hacking.

To complicate matters, Wikileaks released emails from Clinton’s campaign chief, John Podesta, further fueling doubts and controversy around her candidacy. This cascade of news drowned out essential updates from intelligence services about Russian threats.

Examples

• The Access Hollywood tape captured Trump bragging about sexually inappropriate behavior.
• Wikileaks strategically released John Podesta’s emails hours after the tape surfaced.
• Media headlines focused on scandal rather than the intelligence report linking hacks to Russia.

9. Post-Election Fallout

Trump’s election shocked observers. The FBI and intelligence agencies had substantial evidence of Russia’s meddling but withheld much of it before the election’s outcome.

While Democrats expressed outrage, the broader public still remained uninformed about the depth of the interference. Meanwhile, Russia celebrated the success of its operation, and Trump maintained his denials, casting doubts on intelligence findings to preserve his position.

Examples

• FBI investigations into Russian links remained quiet during the election period.
• Reports of Russian fake accounts swayed opinions via targeted disinformation.
• Russian Duma members cheered after Trump’s election win was announced.

Takeaways

1. Social media platforms should adopt stricter measures to detect and block disinformation campaigns initiated by foreign actors.
2. Nations must establish bipartisan agreements to publicly address external threats to electoral integrity, ensuring transparency and accountability.
3. Individuals involved with foreign governments in any capacity during campaigns must notify law enforcement to safeguard national security.