How did one of the world’s superpowers spend 20 years fighting in Afghanistan, only to leave with the Taliban stronger than ever?
1. Afghanistan's Complex History
Afghanistan’s position at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East has shaped its turbulent history. Its geography, filled with towering mountains and deserts, isolated its communities, fostering cultural diversity but making political unity hard. The population includes groups like the Pashtuns, Tajiks, and Hazaras, each with distinct traditions and histories.
The country’s modern history reveals a long struggle against foreign domination. From resisting British colonization in the 19th century to the Soviet invasion in 1978, its people repeatedly fought to maintain sovereignty. After the Soviets left, internal power struggles gave rise to the Taliban, a group emphasizing strict interpretations of Islamic principles.
When the US entered Afghanistan in 2001, it stepped into this complex narrative. Effectively navigating Afghanistan’s deep history and societal divisions proved as challenging as the logistics of the military campaign.
Examples
- Afghanistan repelled three British invasions between 1839-1919.
- The Soviet-Afghan War ended with the Soviets withdrawing after a decade of fierce resistance.
- The Taliban emerged from internal chaos in 1994 and quickly gained control over much of the country.
2. The Initial Invasion: Fast Success, Slow Failure
The US invasion in late 2001 quickly deposed the Taliban regime. Within weeks, US-led forces captured Kabul, and Mullah Omar retreated. Behind this swift success were extensive airstrikes and collaboration with Afghanistan's Northern Alliance.
Plans for peace followed. The US installed Hamid Karzai as interim president and initiated efforts to rebuild Afghanistan. But optimistic plans hit barriers almost immediately. Karzai struggled to control the country, and the US underestimated the potential for a Taliban resurgence. By keeping troop numbers low, they left many regions vulnerable.
What began as a mission aimed at neutralizing al-Qa'eda soon became an extended nation-building effort, where unclear goals and limited devotion hindered long-term success.
Examples
- Operation Enduring Freedom toppled the Taliban in weeks.
- Only 5,000 US troops remained after the initial invasion.
- US support for Karzai failed as divisions between ethnic groups deepened.
3. The Taliban’s Comeback
The years after the invasion offered a fragile calm, but cracks began to show. Many Afghans resented US forces due to civilian casualties in airstrikes, like the 2002 wedding bombing in Uruzgan. The Taliban exploited these grievances and regrouped in the southern provinces of Kandahar and Helmand.
By 2006, under Mullah Dadullah’s leadership, the Taliban launched an offensive, taking advantage of government weaknesses. Control over the poppy trade provided economic strength, and the group began governing some regions better than the central government, building local support.
The resurgence was also supported by Pakistan, where Taliban members found safe havens. Combined, these factors allowed the group to expand and gain legitimacy.
Examples
- US bombed a wedding in 2002, killing 54 civilians, fueling Afghan distrust.
- The Taliban controlled large portions of Kandahar and Helmand by 2006.
- Pakistan’s tribal regions allowed the Taliban to operate openly.
4. Challenges in the Eastern Battleground
While most attention focused on the south, the eastern provinces presented their challenges. Rugged terrain complicated operations, and diverse ethnic groups resisted central authority. Nuristan and Kunar provinces became hotspots of resistance.
Here, US and Afghan forces faced not just the Taliban but also al-Qa’eda remnants and other militant groups like Hezb Islami. The rugged environment limited air support, making every battle grueling. The Wanat outpost attack in 2008 symbolized the struggles, as 200 insurgents ambushed government and US forces.
The inability to maintain control in the east further weakened American morale and demonstrated the challenges of fighting in Afghanistan’s unforgiving geography.
Examples
- Nuristani resistance figures ambushed US troops at Wanat, 2008.
- Operation Mountain Lion aimed to clear al-Qa'eda but faced constant setbacks.
- Eastern provinces presented more social complexities compared to the south.
5. Short-Lived Success of the Surge
In 2009, President Obama committed thousands of extra troops under what became known as the Surge. The goal was to push back the Taliban and stabilize the country before transitioning full control to the Afghan government.
Initial results seemed positive, especially in southern regions like Helmand and Kandahar. US marines worked with Afghan police to hold territory, and the Taliban was pushed back. But the victories came at high human and financial costs, and the gains proved fleeting.
By 2012, with public support for the war waning, the US began preparing the ground for peace talks. However, the Taliban merely waited for opportunities to reemerge.
Examples
- 17,000 troops were deployed in 2009, and troop presence peaked at 100,000.
- Helmand province saw a temporary period of stability during the Surge.
- The US spent $110 billion annually during the peak of the conflict.
6. Local Uprisings: Sufi Resistance
While the Taliban gained power in many areas, their authoritarian rule also bred anger. In 2012, Ghazni Province’s Andar district witnessed an armed uprising by Sufi groups, who opposed the Taliban’s suppressive bans on their religious practices.
These local militias successfully disrupted Taliban forces and attacks in the region. However, they hesitated to fully support the Kabul government, showcasing the deep-seated distrust in the central administration.
Afghanistan is no stranger to decentralized power structures, and while militias succeeded in curbing the Taliban in small pockets, they underscored the fractured nature of Afghan politics.
Examples
- The Andar uprising in Ghazni frustrated Taliban strategies.
- Cultural tensions, like restrictions on music, intensified local rebellions.
- Uprisings spread in provinces but were disconnected from central efforts.
7. Obama's Drawdown and Afghan Weaknesses
Obama attempted to transition authority to Afghan forces while reducing dependence on US troops. But this hands-off approach left Afghan forces ill-equipped to deal with Taliban offensives. The US stopped airstrikes except in emergencies, further limiting Afghan capabilities.
The Taliban capitalized on Afghan army weaknesses. In 2015, they captured strategic areas, including Kunduz City, by exploiting desertions in the Afghan military. Many soldiers, unmotivated and unpaid, walked off the battlefield.
The unity government led by Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah struggled with constant infighting, leaving governance stunted and unable to earn public trust.
Examples
- Taliban forces briefly captured Kunduz City in 2015, their first since 2001.
- Surveys in 2014 showed only 10% of Afghan soldiers felt loyalty to Kabul.
- Desertions in Afghan forces exceeded 1,000 soldiers during key battles.
8. Trump’s Peace Deal
President Trump’s approach to Afghanistan was erratic, driven more by frustration than strategy. Initially increasing troop levels, he later relented to calls for peace talks with the Taliban.
In 2020, the Doha Agreement was signed. It required the US to withdraw in return for vague Taliban assurances to not harbor terrorists. The Afghan government, excluded from negotiations, was further undermined.
This withdrawal pact set the stage for the chaotic US exit in 2021. The Taliban timed their final offensives perfectly, quickly retaking territory as American troops left.
Examples
- 2017 saw Trump deploy an 11-ton bomb against Islamic State in Afghanistan.
- The Doha Agreement of 2020 outlined the withdrawal but lacked clear guarantees.
- Afghanistan saw Taliban forces storm into Kabul by August 2021.
9. Why the US Lost the War
The US entered Afghanistan with clear objectives: retaliate for 9/11 and dismantle al-Qa'eda. But over time, the mission blurred. Efforts to rebuild Afghanistan stumbled due to misunderstandings about its culture and an underestimation of the Taliban's resilience.
Despite investing billions, the US didn’t create a self-sustaining government. Corruption, lack of centralized authority, and Afghan soldiers’ low morale amplified these failures.
Meanwhile, the Taliban’s consistent commitment and ability to regroup outlasted the US. Ultimately, the Afghan war revealed the limits of military intervention in solving political and cultural tensions.
Examples
- Corruption flourished, with Afghan leaders embezzling funds meant for rebuilding.
- Taliban outreach, poppy farming revenues, and safe havens in Pakistan sustained their fight.
- The war cost American taxpayers over $2.3 trillion but did not stabilize Afghanistan.
Takeaways
- Military victories can be meaningless without understanding local cultures and political landscapes.
- Relying on external forces for governance rather than building local institutions creates fragile states.
- Wars require clear objectives; mission creep often leads to prolonged conflict and unnecessary costs.