The Doomsday Machine Summary

How close are we to the brink of complete annihilation? Closer than you think, as the flawed systems governing nuclear weapons reveal a terrifying reality.

1. The Origin of City Bombings Paved the Way for Mass Civilian Casualties

Before the 1930s, civilians were generally kept out of harm's way during wars, in line with the principle of just war. However, advances in aircraft technology during this time enabled strategic bombings aimed at civilian populations and infrastructure, marking a grim shift in warfare.

Strategic bombings aimed to dismantle an enemy’s economy and morale by targeting civilians, and this shift became evident during events like the bombing of Guernica in 1937. Britain and Germany escalated this practice during WWII, resulting in mass civilian deaths during events like the Blitz in London and British retaliatory air raids on German cities.

The United States played a major role in this focus on civilians. In March 1945, US air raids on Tokyo caused approximately 100,000 civilian deaths in a single night. Such bombings set a precedent for the large-scale destruction that would later be seen with nuclear weapons.

Examples

• Guernica’s bombing during the Spanish Civil War, immortalized in Picasso’s painting.
• The Blitz, German air raids on London, left over 40,000 civilians dead.
• The US fire bombing of Tokyo caused massive civilian casualties in 1945.

2. The Development of Nuclear Weapons Stirred Fear and Ambition

The Manhattan Project during WWII brought the first nuclear weapons into existence, driven by the fear that Nazi Germany could deploy such weapons first. A similar rationale fueled the Cold War-era nuclear arms race between the US and USSR.

Ellsberg, inspired by Cold War rhetoric warning of Soviet expansion, supported the development of deterrent strategies. He shared this practical rationale with Manhattan Project scientists, who aimed to prevent totalitarian regimes from gaining dominance. However, their creation triggered an arms race instead of securing peace.

The first use of nuclear weapons—the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki—proved their unparalleled destructive capacity. These attacks pushed both the US and USSR into an arms race that prioritized stockpiling over preventing nuclear war.

Examples

• Leo Szilard’s discovery of nuclear fission set the stage for unimaginable destructive power.
• The Manhattan Project scientists pursued atomic bomb development to deter Nazi Germany.
• The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki resulted in over 200,000 deaths.

3. The Idea of Deterrence: A Paradox of Destruction as Security

Ellsberg and other analysts at RAND Corporation believed in deterrence—a strategy premised on the notion that countries would avoid nuclear war if the consequences guaranteed mutual destruction. This concept, while logical in theory, proved dangerously simplistic in practice.

Ellsberg discovered that both the US and USSR invested in creating systems that could launch counterattacks swiftly. The rationale was that an immediate response would halt or minimize the damage inflicted by a first strike. However, this rapid-response structure made it alarmingly easy to send nuclear weapons into action hastily.

The deterrence doctrine was undermined by the arms race. As weapons technology advanced, so did the race to outdo the other side’s power, creating an even greater risk with no added security.

Examples

• The USSR's launch of Sputnik demonstrated its long-range missile capabilities.
• Deterrence relied on systems that could launch nuclear strikes within minutes.
• The Cold War turned into an arms race driven by fear rather than logic.

4. Alarming Flaws in the US Nuclear Command Structure

Ellsberg's work at RAND uncovered multiple issues with the US nuclear launch system, making it both unreliable and dangerous. The system prioritized speed in launching attacks, often at the cost of accuracy or proper authorization.

One major flaw was the "two-man system," which required two officers to access launch codes. In practice, this safeguard was undermined by practicalities such as emergencies or unavailability. Additionally, once the "GO" command for a launch was given, there was no system in place to halt the mission if it turned out to be based on a false alarm.

These flaws raised the terrifying possibility of an unintentional nuclear war. Ellsberg concluded that the world’s safety relied not on robust systems but on a combination of luck and restraint.

Examples

• Officers on airbases could access both halves of the launch codes.
• There was no "STOP" protocol once nuclear-equipped planes were airborne.
• False alarms were not uncommon, increasing the risk of accidental launches.

5. Nuclear Authorization Extended Beyond the President

Ellsberg discovered that while the US public believed only the president could authorize a nuclear strike, the reality was more concerning. Authority had been delegated down the chain of command to numerous military officials.

He found that in the event of communication breakdowns, officers as low as three-star rankings could launch nuclear weapons. This system, designed for redundancy, instead created multiple points of vulnerability where unauthorized or accidental launches could occur.

Even President Eisenhower had unknowingly allowed such far-reaching delegation, a fact Ellsberg brought to light. His findings shocked figures like Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, who had been unaware of these loopholes.

Examples

• Admiral Harry Felt in Hawaii was authorized to launch strikes if communications failed.
• Delegation extended to over 20 military officers, including three-star generals.
• The revelations stunned government leaders like Robert McNamara.

6. A First-Strike Scenario Would Be Catastrophic

Ellsberg's examination of US plans revealed the devastating impact of a first-strike nuclear attack. One scenario projected 600 million deaths, including retaliatory strikes, with numbers potentially rising to one-third of the global population.

Even without retaliation, first strikes would create firestorms capable of producing enough smoke to block the sun for a decade. This "nuclear winter" would lead to mass starvation and the collapse of ecosystems worldwide.

This doomsday-level destruction highlighted the horrifying reality that US war plans weren't just national security strategies—they were existential threats to humanity.

Examples

• A first-strike estimate revealed 275 million deaths in the first hours alone.
• Retaliatory strikes brought the death toll closer to 1 billion.
• Nuclear winter theory predicted a sunless Earth and mass extinction.

7. Humanity Was Saved by a Single Decision During the Cuban Missile Crisis

The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis came dangerously close to nuclear war. Soviet missiles were deployed to Cuba, and the US responded with a naval blockade—a bold move that escalated tensions between the nations.

A pivotal moment came when a Soviet submarine officer, Vasili Arkhipov, refused to agree to a missile launch. This single decision prevented what would have likely been a global nuclear conflict.

Ellsberg noted how the crisis hinged not on well-prepared strategies but on the restraint of a few individuals, exposing the dangers of systems that lacked robust safeguards.

Examples

• The US military placed 1,500 strategic bombers on full alert during the crisis.
• Soviet officers aboard the submarine nearly launched a missile without authorization.
• Arkhipov’s refusal to launch made him “The Man Who Saved the World.”

8. The Public Holds the Key to Ending Doomsday Machines

Ellsberg stressed the need for public awareness to pressure governments into dismantling doomsday systems. He called for greater transparency and whistleblowing to inform citizens of the dangers of nuclear war.

In a post-Cold War era, the threat of a nuclear winter still looms. Systems remain ready to act upon false alarms or quick decisions, keeping humanity at risk. Public advocacy can force changes that politicians resist due to political and industrial interests.

Ellsberg drew parallels to historical moments, like the dissolution of the USSR and apartheid’s end, to show that determined public action can dismantle entrenched systems.

Examples

• Current systems are still on high alert, ready to launch within minutes.
• Whistleblowers revealing war plans could inform and mobilize the public.
• Historical movements like the fall of apartheid show systemic change is possible.

9. A False Alarm Could Still Trigger Global Catastrophe

Even with reduced tensions after the Cold War, a false alert or terrorist action could activate America’s and Russia’s nuclear responses. These systems are designed for rapid reaction, leaving little time for verification or correction.

The continued existence of nuclear doomsday systems poses risks beyond intended conflicts—they could end humanity due to accidents or misjudgment. This potential makes their dismantling urgent and ethically necessary.

Ellsberg’s work shows how we live under the shadow of technology designed decades ago but with consequences no one fully understood at the time.

Examples

• A 1983 Soviet false alarm nearly led to retaliatory strikes against the US.
• The 1979 NORAD false alarm mistakenly suggested a massive Soviet attack.
• Terrorist attacks on command systems could trigger devastating misfires.

Takeaways

1. Educate yourself on global nuclear policies and question their ethical implications.
2. Support organizations advocating for nuclear disarmament and dialogue.
3. Pressure your political representatives to prioritize dismantling rapid-response systems.