2030 Summary

What will 2030 look like? It will be a world shaped by declining birth rates, shifting economic power, and a fundamental rethinking of how we live, work, and consume.

1. Population Decline Changes the World

The declining birth rate is reshaping global demographics. In the US, women have been having fewer than two children on average since the 1970s. This means the population will dwindle unless immigration makes up the difference, creating a situation where there aren’t enough younger generations to support aging ones.

This trend has massive implications for social systems. Economies depend on younger workers to sustain senior care, fund pensions, and fill the labor force. Countries like Brazil and Japan are among those grappling with how to address the needs of their aging populations with fewer young taxpayers.

Conversely, sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing a baby boom. Its population could grow from 1.3 billion today to over 2 billion by 2038. While this means a growing market and workforce, it will also require investments in food imports, agriculture, and infrastructure—huge opportunities waiting to be tapped.

Examples

• Women in the workforce often delay childbirth, impacting fertility rates.
• Americans in the 2010s reported having less frequent sexual activity compared to earlier decades.
• Western nations may rely on migrant workers to meet labor and financial demands.

2. Aging Populations with Greater Financial Power

The elderly, or "gray market," will wield unprecedented spending power. By 2030, people over 60 will control more than half the world’s wealth. This demographic will also expand by an additional 400 million people.

Retiring later than previous generations, these older adults will accumulate even more wealth and drive demand for specialized products such as health-care wearables or lifestyle-enhancing household appliances. Yet, businesses often overlook this group. Many seniors report feeling ignored by advertisers and brands.

Adapting to this demographic shift requires innovation. For instance, companies could offer orthopedic fashion footwear or ergonomic household appliances. These products address real needs while appealing to seniors' desires for style and functionality.

Examples

• Philips successfully pivoted to health-care technology, targeting older consumers.
• UK seniors report that 96% of advertisements fail to appeal to their age group.
• Front-loading washing machines are popular today but could become a problem for users as they age further.

3. Economic Power Moves Eastward

The middle class is shrinking in the US and Europe but growing rapidly in Asia and developing regions. By 2030, Asian middle classes will account for half of the world's consumer spending.

Historically strong middle-class populations in the West are facing automation and outsourcing, which are eroding their financial stability. Meanwhile, in Asia, hundreds of millions of people join the middle class annually, fueling demand for goods and services specially tailored to their needs.

Western corporations often misstep when entering these markets due to cultural misalignment. For example, Walmart failed in South Korea and Brazil by offering products irrelevant to local preferences. Companies entering these spaces must adapt their strategies to succeed.

Examples

• Chinese firms like Alibaba demonstrate the new global economic strength of Asia.
• The Pew Research Center shows a proportional decline in US middle-class households over decades.
• Walmart's attempt to sell skis in snowless Brazil illustrates cultural mismatch.

4. Women Step Into Greater Economic Power

In 2030, women will control more than half the world’s wealth for the first time. As workforce participation patterns shift, this group will especially influence spending in health care, education, insurance, and low-risk investments.

This transition stems from more women re-joining or remaining in the workforce, especially in countries like Japan, where declining birth rates force businesses to employ mothers. With fewer young workers available, women are becoming a critical resource for economies.

A change in societal attitudes amplifies this trend. Acceptance of women in leadership roles has significantly increased in recent years, signaling stronger gender parity in decision-making and wealth management.

Examples

• Japan’s workforce now includes 71% of working-age women—a record high.
• Female investment habits lean toward indexed stock funds instead of high-risk ventures.
• Polling shows neutral preferences for bosses' genders in 2017, marking a huge shift since the 1950s.

5. Cities Must Evolve to Fight Climate Change

Urban areas, housing 55% of the world’s population, account for 80% of global carbon emissions. Their concrete and asphalt exacerbate heating and climate change, worsening cities' vulnerability to rising sea levels.

Cities can mitigate their environmental impact by fostering behavioral changes among citizens. Public transport could become more user-friendly by integrating features such as credit card payment systems. Additionally, urban agriculture, like vertical farming, can reduce emissions while bringing local food production closer to consumers.

Cities will only continue growing—by 2030, over 400 will have populations of more than a million. Without embracing renewable energy and eco-friendly innovations, urban centers face catastrophic risks tied to global warming.

Examples

• Singapore's Sky Greens uses urban towers to grow greens with minimal carbon impact.
• Venice and Miami are among the most at-risk cities for rising sea levels.
• Public transit improvements can reduce car dependency and emissions.

6. Technology Redefines Daily Life

Technological advancements will significantly alter the workforce and everyday life. Robots and artificial intelligence (AI) have already replaced two million workers in the US. By 2030, they’ll expand into cognitive fields like teaching, law, and even surgery.

3D printing will also scale up, aiding disaster relief, producing goods closer to consumers, and even building infrastructure like seawalls or entire homes. These developments could also alleviate poverty, as simpler technology like the waterless toilet transforms sanitation in developing countries.

While some fear the job losses technology can create, others highlight its potential to solve pressing global issues. New tech applications will create opportunities for both innovation and equity.

Examples

• Bots have already performed successful surgeries on animals, like a pig's small intestine.
• China is 3D-printing entire homes for disaster-afflicted regions.
• Loowatt's waterless toilet generates power while improving hygiene in underdeveloped areas.

7. Sharing Will Replace Ownership

A shift toward shared consumption over private ownership is changing how people view property. Millennials and Gen Z favor lifestyle access over possessions, driving the growth of platforms like Uber and Airbnb.

By 2030, half of all spending could revolve around sharing rather than purchasing. This trend could extend from cars and housing to peer-to-peer loans and workplace arrangements, eliminating the need for traditional banking or real estate institutions.

However, shared economies also carry risks. Companies like Uber offer flexibility for consumers but often at the expense of their workers, who may lack stable insurance or retirement benefits. The challenge lies in balancing convenience with fairness.

Examples

• Airbnb has grown into a global business, transforming the idea of temporary housing.
• Crowdfunding and peer-to-peer lending platforms bypass traditional financial institutions.
• Trends show younger generations prioritizing experiences over material possessions.

8. Cryptocurrency Will Reshape Transactions

Cryptocurrency, powered by blockchain technology, is still volatile but holds transformative promise. Bitcoin, for instance, facilitates secure, peer-to-peer online payments outside government or banking systems.

By 2030, we might use blockchain for automated payments or transparent tracking of goods. This would enhance transaction security and ethics—for example, tracking diamonds to avoid purchasing "blood diamonds." Cryptocurrencies could also ensure fair compensation of artists in the digital age.

Although crypto adoption still faces hurdles like price fluctuation, its potential applications span from secure voting systems to protecting intellectual property online.

Examples

• Blockchain tracks diamond transactions via Dexio to ethically source jewelry.
• Bitcoin values fluctuated wildly between $20,000 and $2,500 in just one year.
• Apps based on blockchain could streamline fair royalty payments for creators.

9. Preparing for Both Challenges and Opportunities

2030 will be a world of contrasts—climate challenges, demographic shifts, and rapid technological progress. Businesses and individuals that adapt quickly will thrive, while those that cling to outdated models may falter.

The key is intentional adaptation. Case in point, Lego's return to core toy innovation pulled it from the brink of financial disaster. Similarly, cities, companies, and governments must channel their efforts toward sustainable and values-driven solutions.

While the next decade holds uncertainties, equipping ourselves with knowledge and foresight will allow us to flourish amid change.

Examples

• Lego’s strategy of refocusing on its primary product—a brick toy—revived its fortunes.
• Urban planners’ focus on vertical gardening could transform food production.
• AI developers are preparing to disrupt industries like education and medicine.

Takeaways

1. Businesses must focus on core strengths while adapting for future needs, much like Lego did by returning to its core toy products.
2. Individuals should embrace opportunities in the sharing economy while remaining critical of its gaps, specifically for workers.
3. Innovations like urban gardening and blockchain offer chances to address systemic problems. Start small and explore their broad applications.