Introduction
In a world where negative news dominates headlines and social media feeds, it's easy to believe that everything is getting worse. Wars, environmental disasters, economic crises, and social injustices seem to be everywhere we look. But what if this pessimistic view isn't an accurate representation of reality? What if, contrary to popular belief, the world is actually getting better in many significant ways?
This is the central argument of Johan Norberg's book "Progress." Norberg challenges the prevailing narrative of doom and gloom, presenting a wealth of data and historical context to demonstrate that humanity has made remarkable strides in various aspects of life. From reducing poverty and hunger to improving health and education, Norberg paints a picture of a world that is, in many ways, better than it has ever been.
However, this isn't a book of blind optimism. Norberg acknowledges that serious problems still exist and that there's much work to be done. But by highlighting the progress we've already made, he aims to inspire hope and motivate further action. After all, if we've come this far, imagine what we might achieve in the future.
Let's dive into the key ideas presented in "Progress" and explore how far we've really come.
The End of Hunger
One of the most fundamental improvements in human life has been our ability to feed ourselves. For most of human history, hunger was a constant companion for the majority of people. Famines were frequent and devastating, often wiping out large portions of populations.
The Grim Reality of Past Centuries
Norberg takes us back to 17th century Europe, painting a bleak picture of life during that time. Children wandered from house to house begging for food, while adults died of starvation in the streets. In Finland, historical estimates suggest that around a third of the population perished due to famine between 1695 and 1697. The situation was so dire that there were even reports of cannibalism in Sweden and France.
Even in the 18th century, the average calorie consumption in France and England was lower than it is in present-day sub-Saharan Africa, which is currently the most undernourished region in the world. This stark comparison helps us understand just how far we've come in terms of food security.
The Agricultural Revolution
The turning point came with technological advances and the expansion of global trade. In the 19th century, farmers were granted property rights, giving them an incentive to produce more food as they could sell surplus crops for profit. The opening of borders to global trade allowed different regions to specialize in particular crops, making food production much more efficient.
Scientists and entrepreneurs played a crucial role in this transformation. Innovations like artificial fertilizer, modern milking machines, and combine harvesters revolutionized agriculture. To put this in perspective, Norberg points out that a single combine harvester today can do as much work in six minutes as 25 men could do in a day in the past. That's a staggering 2,500-fold increase in productivity!
Global Progress in Nutrition
The results of these advancements are evident in global nutrition statistics. In 1961, there were 51 countries where the average person consumed less than 2,000 calories a day. By 2013, this number had dropped to just one country - Zambia. The proportion of undernourished people in the world has fallen dramatically, from about half the global population in 1945 to around 10 percent today.
While there's still work to be done to completely eradicate hunger, the progress we've made is undeniable. For the first time in human history, we can realistically envision a world where chronic hunger is a thing of the past.
The Health Revolution
Alongside improvements in food production, advancements in sanitation and medicine have dramatically increased life expectancy and overall health.
The Importance of Sanitation
Norberg takes us back to the 19th century, when cities were far from the relatively clean environments we know today. Streets were filled with human and animal waste, rivers were polluted with industrial runoff, and the stench was overwhelming. These conditions made cities perfect breeding grounds for diseases.
The author recounts the story of John Snow, a London physician who made a crucial discovery during a cholera outbreak between 1848 and 1854. By mapping the spread of the disease, Snow realized that the main source was a water company that collected water downstream from sewage outlets. This breakthrough led to the introduction of sophisticated water systems, chlorination, and filtering in London, and eventually, to improved sanitation practices worldwide.
The impact of these changes has been profound. Between 1980 and 2015, the proportion of the world's population with access to safe drinking water rose from 52 to 91 percent. This simple yet crucial improvement has saved countless lives.
Medical Advancements
The shift to evidence-based, scientific medicine has been another game-changer. Norberg highlights several key developments, from Alexander Fleming's discovery of penicillin to the prevention of diseases like polio and malaria, the treatment of AIDS, and the introduction of mass-vaccination programs.
Globalization has accelerated the fight against disease. In our interconnected world, information spreads rapidly, allowing for quicker tracking of outbreaks and faster development of vaccines.
The Result: Longer Lives
The cumulative effect of these improvements is staggering. At the start of the 20th century, the average person could expect to live to 31. By 2015, the worldwide average life expectancy had more than doubled to 71 years. To put this in perspective, Norberg notes that for the previous 8,000 generations, life expectancy hovered around 30 years. We've achieved in a century what seemed impossible for millennia.
The Wealth Explosion
Perhaps one of the most significant areas of progress has been in the reduction of poverty and the increase in global wealth.
The Industrial Revolution: A Turning Point
Norberg identifies the Industrial Revolution as a pivotal moment in human history. Beginning in England in the 1800s, this period saw a loosening of state control over economic life and widespread experimentation with new technologies. The result was a dramatic boost in productivity.
The effects were swift and substantial. The average real earnings of English workers doubled between 1820 and 1850. To appreciate the magnitude of this change, Norberg points out that before the industrial age, it would have taken an average worker about 2,000 years to double their income.
Global Economic Expansions
The English example was followed by other great economic expansions in the second half of the 20th century. Asian nations like Japan and South Korea, and later China and India, opened up their economies and reaped enormous benefits. Japan saw its GDP increase elevenfold after 1950, while China's GDP grew by a factor of twenty.
Poverty Reduction
This economic growth has had a profound impact on global poverty rates. In developing countries, the number of people living in extreme poverty (defined as having less than $1.90 per day in 2005 prices) fell from 53.9 percent in 1981 to 11.9 percent in 2015. Globally, the drop was from 44.3 percent to 9.6 percent over the same period.
Norberg attributes this rapid turnaround to several factors: the dismantling of oppressive regimes, the collapse of socialist governments, improvements in transport and communication infrastructure, and the opening up of states to foreign trade.
The Peace Dividend
Contrary to what we might believe from watching the news, we actually live in one of the most peaceful eras in human history.
The Decline of Violence
Norberg argues that violence has been steadily declining, thanks to more sophisticated judicial mechanisms and the rise of humanitarian ideas since the Enlightenment. Both homicide rates and the use of torture have decreased significantly.
In Europe, murder rates began to fall in the early modern era, led by the most commercialized and literate societies of the time - England and the Netherlands. The establishment of centralized governments and modern legal systems played a key role in this transformation. As institutions began providing stability, individuals no longer had to resort to violence to secure their social status.
The numbers are striking. In 16th century Europe, there were 19 murders per 100,000 people. Today, that number has dropped to just 1 per 100,000 citizens.
More Humane Justice
Since the Enlightenment introduced the concept of proportional punishment, criminals have been treated with greater leniency. Execution and torture became less common penalties in the 19th century, and justice systems became increasingly humane.
Less Violent International Relations
Violence between states has also become less common. Norberg argues that global commerce has made it more profitable to produce value and exchange it rather than relying on plunder. As a result, governments try to avoid wars.
The information age has also played a role in reducing state violence. News of atrocities spreads quickly, making it harder for states to commit violent acts without facing international scrutiny. International institutions like the United Nations have further regulated violence, making it more difficult for despots to resort to war.
The effect has been dramatic. Wars between states now claim an average of 3,000 lives per conflict, compared to around 86,000 in the 1950s.
Environmental Progress
While rapid economic growth has undoubtedly had environmental costs, Norberg argues that prosperity and environmental conservation aren't mutually exclusive. In fact, he suggests that the progress we've made in protecting the planet is largely a result of our increasing wealth.
From Smog to Clear Skies
Norberg uses the example of London to illustrate this point. In the 1950s, the city suffered from the "Great Smog," a toxic cloud resulting from coal burning and industrial emissions that killed around 12,000 people. For three centuries, up until the 1970s, the city's pollution levels rose. But after that, they decreased sharply, returning to pre-industrial levels. This improvement was largely due to the development of cleaner technologies. Emissions of sulfur dioxide, the toxic compound in smog, have fallen by 94 percent since the 1970s.
Global Environmental Improvements
This trend isn't limited to the UK. Worldwide, 172 out of 178 countries made progress between 2004 and 2014 according to the Environmental Progress Index.
The Environmental Kuznets Curve
Norberg introduces the concept of the Environmental Kuznets Curve to explain this phenomenon. When you plot national wealth against environmental damage, you get a bell-shaped curve. As countries first become more prosperous, environmental damage increases. But once a certain level of wealth is reached, the relationship reverses, and environmental damage begins to decrease.
The reason is simple: taking care of the environment becomes a priority once more basic needs have been met. Conservation becomes important only when people are sure their families have enough to eat.
Wealth as a Buffer Against Environmental Risks
Norberg also points out that the countries most at risk from climate change and natural disasters are the poorest nations. As these countries become more affluent, we can expect improvements in infrastructure, healthcare, technology, and warning systems, which will limit potential damages.
In essence, Norberg argues that the best weapon against environmental pollution is creating more wealth. While it's sometimes thought that wealth is to blame for environmental damage, Norberg suggests that prosperity isn't the problem - it's the solution.
The Education Revolution
Education, particularly literacy, has seen dramatic improvements globally over the last couple of centuries. Norberg emphasizes the importance of literacy in expanding people's horizons, opening new doors, and improving standards of living.
The Path to Global Literacy
Two hundred years ago, only about 12 percent of the world's population could read and write. As of 2015, that figure had flipped: only about 14 percent of the world population couldn't read or write.
Norberg traces this remarkable progress. In late 18th century Europe, religious education was often the only option, primarily focused on teaching people to read religious texts. The 19th century saw a shift, with charities and philanthropists funding schools for the poor and governments introducing compulsory education programs.
By the 20th century, this positive trend had reached developing countries. Formal schooling, mass literacy campaigns, private initiatives, and greater prosperity made education more widely available and better funded.
Benefits for the Most Disadvantaged
This educational progress has been particularly beneficial for the most disenfranchised groups. In poor countries, literacy increased from around 50 percent to 80 percent of all citizens between 1970 and the present.
Women have been major beneficiaries of this trend. The ratio of girls to boys enrolled in primary and secondary schools, as well as universities, is now almost equal. In 1990, there were around eight girls in education for every ten boys. In most low- and middle-income countries today, the ratio is closer to 1:1.
The March of Democracy and Tolerance
Norberg argues that the global rise of democracy and tolerance has resulted in greater individual freedom and more equal societies.
The Spread of Democracy
In 1900, there wasn't a single electoral democracy in the world where every man and woman could vote. Thanks to pressure for reform from various groups - the middle classes and property owners in the 19th century, and labor and women's rights movements in the 20th - universal suffrage began to spread around the globe. By 2000, around 58 percent of the world's population lived in electoral democracies.
The End of Slavery
Another significant development has been the global ban on slavery. As late as 1800, slavery existed in virtually every country. Today, it's banned by every nation on earth. While forced labor, forced marriage, and human trafficking still exist, they're no longer defended as a matter of principle.
Increasing Tolerance
While bigotry still exists, Norberg argues that we're moving toward a more tolerant world. Ethnic and religious minorities, women, and LGBTQ+ individuals enjoy more rights and greater protection against discrimination than ever before.
Norberg provides several examples:
- Racial discrimination: In the 19th century United States, around 150 African-Americans were lynched every year. Segregation was only finally dismantled in the 1960s.
- Women's rights: Before 20th century reforms, women weren't allowed to vote or own property in many countries. Today, women are a firm fixture in the political institutions of virtually every nation except Saudi Arabia and the Vatican.
- LGBTQ+ rights: Before the 21st century, there were no countries where same-sex partners could marry. Now, there are 21 nations where gay people can legally tie the knot.
- Ethnic discrimination: This was officially banned in the 1990s.
Norberg links this increase in tolerance to rising prosperity. Research shows that societies become more tolerant and inclusive as they grow more affluent. Once people have financial security, they're less likely to see other groups struggling for civil rights as a threat to their own welfare.
A Brighter Future for the Next Generation
Given all this progress, Norberg argues that younger generations will grow up in a world that's richer, healthier, and more tolerant than at any other time in history. And there's no reason why things can't get even better.
The End of Child Labor
One striking example of progress is the decline of child labor. In 17th century France, parents were fined if they didn't send their children out to work. Even in the mid-19th century, around 20 percent of all English and Welsh children had to work. Today, that number has dropped to zero in developed countries.
Globally, the trend is similar. In Africa and Asia, some 40 percent of children were in employment in 1950. Today, that percentage has dropped below 10. This is largely a result of increased prosperity - as parents become wealthier, they no longer depend on their children's labor to make ends meet.
The Power of Knowledge
Norberg points out that in Newton's era, knowledge was a privilege of the elites. Today, however, globalization means that billions of people have access to information and new ideas. This democratization of knowledge means we're closer than ever to living in a world where everyone can contribute to improving human life and society.
Challenges Ahead
Despite all this progress, Norberg acknowledges that serious problems still need solving. Undernourishment, preventable disease epidemics, poverty, and bigotry are all still issues, even if they're gradually becoming less pressing.
However, Norberg is optimistic. The tools to make the world a better place are ready at hand. With billions of people now having access to information and the ability to contribute ideas, we have an unprecedented opportunity to solve global problems and continue our march of progress.
Conclusion: The Reality of Progress
Johan Norberg's "Progress" presents a compelling case for optimism in a world often dominated by pessimistic narratives. By examining long-term trends in various aspects of human life - from food security and health to wealth, peace, education, and tolerance - Norberg demonstrates that we have made remarkable strides as a species.
This isn't to say that everything is perfect. Norberg acknowledges the serious challenges we still face, from persistent poverty in some regions to ongoing environmental concerns. However, he argues that recognizing our progress is crucial. It gives us hope, motivates further action, and helps us understand what strategies have worked in the past.
Moreover, Norberg's work serves as a reminder to be skeptical of doom-and-gloom narratives. While it's easy to get caught up in the negative news cycle, taking a step back to look at long-term trends often reveals a more positive picture.
The key takeaway from "Progress" is not that we should be complacent, but rather that we should be inspired. If we've managed to make such significant improvements in the face of seemingly insurmountable challenges in the past, imagine what we might achieve in the future.
As we move forward, it's crucial to remember the lessons of our progress:
- Innovation and technological advancements can solve seemingly intractable problems.
- Open societies that allow for the free exchange of ideas tend to make more progress.
- Economic growth, when managed properly, can lead to improvements in various aspects of life, including health and environmental protection.
- Education and access to information are powerful tools for individual and societal advancement.
- International cooperation and institutions can play a crucial role in addressing global challenges.
By keeping these lessons in mind and maintaining a balanced perspective that acknowledges both our achievements and our ongoing challenges, we can continue to work towards a better future for all of humanity.
Norberg's "Progress" is ultimately a call to action. It reminds us that progress is not inevitable - it's the result of human ingenuity, effort, and cooperation. By recognizing how far we've come, we can find the motivation and confidence to tackle the problems that remain, knowing that solutions are possible if we apply our collective will and intelligence.
As we face the challenges of the 21st century, from climate change to inequality, we would do well to remember the progress we've already made. It's a testament to human potential and a source of hope for what we might yet achieve. The golden age, Norberg suggests, may not be behind us, but ahead of us - if we choose to create it.