Utopia for Realists

In "Utopia for Realists," Rutger Bregman challenges us to reimagine what a better world could look like. He argues that we're living in a time of unprecedented wealth and prosperity, yet we've stopped dreaming big about how to improve society. This book is a call to action, urging us to embrace radical ideas that could transform our economy and way of life for the better.

Bregman presents a compelling case for several bold proposals:

1. Universal Basic Income
2. A 15-hour workweek
3. Open borders
4. Rethinking how we measure progress

These ideas might seem utopian or unrealistic at first glance, but Bregman backs them up with historical examples, economic research, and logical arguments. He shows that what once seemed impossible has often become reality, and that we have the means to create a more just and fulfilling society if we're willing to think differently.

The Paradox of Progress

Bregman begins by highlighting a paradox: we're living in what should be a paradise by historical standards, yet many people feel dissatisfied and unfulfilled. He paints a vivid picture of how far humanity has come in a relatively short time:

• For most of human history, life was, as Thomas Hobbes famously wrote, "poor, nasty, brutish, and short."
• Economic progress was painfully slow for centuries. The average Italian in 1880 earned roughly the same as their ancestors in 1300.
• In recent times, however, economic growth has exploded. Today, the average Italian is 15 times richer than in 1880.
• The global economy is now 250 times larger than before the Industrial Revolution.
• Technological progress is accelerating rapidly. The price of solar power, for example, has dropped by 99% since 1980.

This progress has brought remarkable improvements in quality of life:

• Hunger, once a constant threat, has been largely replaced by obesity as a health concern in many parts of the world.
• We're much safer. The murder rate in Western Europe is 40 times lower than in the Middle Ages.
• Diseases like smallpox have been eradicated, and life expectancy in Africa is growing by four days every week.
• Technology has enabled seemingly miraculous feats, like restoring sight to the blind and allowing paraplegics to walk again.

Yet despite these advancements, many people feel unfulfilled and anxious about the future. Bregman suggests that our material comfort has led us to stop dreaming big about how to make life truly better. We've become complacent, focused on consumerism rather than addressing deeper societal issues.

The author argues that it's time to reconsider what progress really means and to start imagining a new utopia – not as an unattainable fantasy, but as a set of achievable goals that could radically improve our lives and society.

The Power of Free Money

One of Bregman's most provocative ideas is that giving people free money – with no strings attached – can be an incredibly effective way to improve lives and reduce poverty. He presents several compelling examples and arguments to support this claim:

The GiveDirectly Experiment

Bregman tells the story of Bernard Omondi, a Kenyan man working in a stone quarry and earning just $2 a day. When the charity GiveDirectly gave Bernard and others in his village a one-time payment of $500 with no conditions, it transformed their lives. Bernard used the money to buy a motorcycle and become a taxi driver, increasing his daily earnings to $6-$9.

This example illustrates a key principle: poor people often know better than anyone else what they need to improve their situation. By giving them cash directly, rather than dictating how aid should be used, we empower them to make the best decisions for their circumstances.

The Effectiveness of Cash Transfers

Bregman cites several studies showing the positive impact of cash transfers:

• In Uganda, giving poor women $150 led to a nearly 100% increase in their incomes.
• An MIT study of GiveDirectly's cash grants found they drove a lasting 38% increase in incomes and boosted home and livestock ownership by 58%.
• Similar programs around the world have shown comparable results.

Debunking Myths About Handouts

Many people worry that giving out free money will lead to laziness and vice. However, the evidence doesn't support this fear:

• A World Bank study found that in 82% of cases across Latin America, Asia, and Africa, alcohol and tobacco consumption actually declined among recipients of cash transfers.
• In Liberia, an experiment gave $200 to alcoholics, known criminals, and other "high-risk" individuals. Three years later, these men had used the money to invest in food, medicine, and small businesses.

Bregman argues that poverty isn't primarily about laziness or bad decisions – it's about a lack of money. By addressing this root cause directly, we can empower people to improve their own lives.

The Case for Universal Basic Income

Building on the idea of free money, Bregman makes a compelling case for implementing a Universal Basic Income (UBI) – a scheme where everyone receives enough money to live on, regardless of their employment status. He argues that the time has come to seriously consider this idea, which has been proposed in various forms throughout history.

Historical Context

Bregman reveals that the United States came close to implementing something like a UBI in the 1960s:

• President Richard Nixon proposed giving every family $1,600 a year (equivalent to about $10,000 today).
• Nixon saw this as potentially the most significant social legislation in US history.
• The plan was ultimately abandoned due to political opposition in Congress.

Addressing Common Objections

Bregman tackles two main arguments against UBI:

1. It's unaffordable:

   • A study by the British think-tank Demos found that eradicating all poverty in the US would cost just $175 billion – less than 1% of US GDP.
   • This is far less than what has been spent on wars in Afghanistan and Iraq ($4-6 trillion).

2. It would discourage work:

   • Trials conducted in the US during Nixon's era found that overall paid work was reduced by just 9% among UBI recipients.
   • This reduction was mainly due to mothers spending more time with young children and young people pursuing further education.
   • High school graduation rates increased by a third among recipients.

Benefits of UBI

Bregman argues that UBI could have numerous positive effects:

• It would give people the freedom to make better long-term decisions, such as investing in education or starting businesses.
• It could help address the challenges posed by automation and globalization, which are threatening many traditional jobs.
• It would provide a safety net that allows people to take risks and pursue meaningful work, rather than being trapped in unfulfilling jobs out of financial necessity.

The author contends that implementing UBI is not only possible but increasingly necessary as our economy evolves. He challenges us to rethink our assumptions about work, welfare, and human potential.

Rethinking Progress: Beyond GDP

Bregman argues that our current way of measuring economic progress – primarily through Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – is deeply flawed and needs to be replaced. He explains why GDP is an inadequate measure of societal well-being and proposes alternative approaches.

The Problems with GDP

1. Poor at measuring technological advances:

   • Free or low-cost innovations that greatly improve quality of life (like Skype) can actually reduce GDP.
   • This creates a perverse incentive against certain types of beneficial progress.

2. Benefits from human suffering:

   • Disasters like the 2011 Japanese tsunami initially hurt GDP, but recovery efforts then boosted it.
   • This makes catastrophes appear economically beneficial, which is clearly absurd.

3. Ignores important factors:

   • GDP doesn't account for things like environmental damage, income inequality, or quality of life.
   • It treats all economic activity as positive, even if it's harmful (e.g., cigarette sales).

Alternative Approaches

Bregman suggests we need a more holistic way to measure societal progress:

1. Gross National Happiness:

   • The King of Bhutan famously implemented this measure, which includes factors like cultural preservation.
   • However, this approach has its own flaws, such as potentially masking political dissatisfaction.

2. Dashboard of indicators:

   • Instead of a single number, use multiple measures to track different aspects of societal health.
   • This could include traditional economic metrics alongside measures of environmental sustainability, social cohesion, education levels, and leisure time.
   • While not perfectly objective, this approach would provide a more nuanced view of progress than GDP alone.

Bregman argues that changing how we measure progress is crucial because "what we measure is what we strive for." By adopting more comprehensive metrics, we can align our societal goals with what truly matters for human well-being and long-term sustainability.

The Case for a 15-Hour Workweek

One of Bregman's most radical proposals is the idea that we should dramatically reduce the standard workweek to around 15 hours. He argues that this isn't just possible, but that it would bring numerous benefits to individuals and society as a whole.

Historical Context

Bregman begins by reminding us that the idea of a shorter workweek isn't new:

• In 1930, economist John Maynard Keynes predicted that by 2030, vast economic growth would enable a 15-hour workweek.
• In the early 20th century, industrialists like Henry Ford discovered that shorter working hours could increase productivity.
• By the 1960s, some experts predicted that only 2% of the population would need to work to meet society's needs.

However, reductions in working hours stalled in the 1980s, despite continued economic growth. Bregman argues that we've chosen increased consumption over increased leisure time.

The Feasibility of a 15-Hour Week

Bregman presents evidence that a drastically shorter workweek is economically possible:

• MIT ecologist Erik Rauch has shown that by 2050, we could work 15 hours or less while maintaining the same standard of living as in 2000.
• The massive productivity gains from technology and automation make this scenario increasingly realistic.

Benefits of a Shorter Workweek

1. Alignment with people's desires:

   • Studies show that given the choice, many people would prefer more free time over higher pay.

2. Reduced stress and improved health:

   • Overwork is linked to numerous health problems, both physical and mental.
   • A shorter workweek could lead to significant improvements in public health.

3. Workplace safety:

   • Fatigue is a major factor in workplace accidents. Shorter shifts could reduce these incidents.

4. Gender equality:

   • Countries with shorter workweeks tend to have better gender equality rankings.
   • When men work less, they tend to take on more unpaid work at home, traditionally left to women.

5. Personal development and fulfillment:

   • More free time allows people to pursue education, hobbies, fitness, and spend time with family and friends.
   • This could lead to a more well-rounded, educated, and satisfied population.

6. Environmental benefits:

   • Reduced working hours could lead to lower consumption and energy use, benefiting the environment.

Bregman argues that transitioning to a shorter workweek should be a political priority. He challenges us to reconsider our culture of overwork and to imagine a society where we have more time for the things that truly matter in life.

Rethinking the Value of Work

Bregman argues that our society's perception of which jobs are valuable and prestigious is fundamentally flawed. He uses compelling examples to illustrate how we often undervalue essential work while overvaluing jobs that contribute little to society.

The Sanitation Workers' Strike

Bregman recounts a 1968 strike by New York City sanitation workers:

• 7,000 garbagemen went on strike over pay and working conditions.
• Within two days, the city was knee-deep in refuse.
• A state of emergency was declared, highlighting how crucial these workers were to the functioning of society.

The Irish Bank Strike

In contrast, Bregman describes a 1970 strike by Irish bank employees:

• When banks closed due to the strike, many predicted economic disaster.
• Instead, the economy continued to function as pubs and shops stepped in to cash checks and extend credit.
• By the end of the strike, about £5 billion in homemade currency had circulated.
• This demonstrated that while some financial services were necessary, many banking jobs were less essential than commonly believed.

Misaligned Prestige and Compensation

Bregman argues that our society often rewards the wrong jobs:

• High-paying, prestigious jobs like investment banking or corporate law often create little real value for society.
• Essential jobs like teaching, nursing, or sanitation work are often underpaid and undervalued.
• He cites the example of telemarketers or Washington lobbyists – if they went on strike, society might actually benefit.

The Role of Taxation

Bregman suggests that tax policy plays a crucial role in shaping career choices:

• He cites a Harvard study showing how Reagan-era tax cuts led to a shift in career choices among elite graduates.
• In 1970, twice as many Harvard graduates chose research over banking. By 1990, this had reversed.
• The study concluded that income tax rates significantly influence career choices, steering people towards or away from high-paid but potentially less socially beneficial occupations.

Redefining Value

Bregman challenges us to reconsider how we define valuable work:

• He argues for a greater focus on jobs that create real wealth and value for society.
• This might mean higher taxes on high-earning but less socially beneficial jobs to incentivize people towards more crucial professions.
• He suggests we need a cultural shift in how we view different types of work, giving more respect and compensation to essential jobs that keep society functioning.

By rethinking the value we assign to different types of work, Bregman argues we could create a more just and efficient society that better rewards those who contribute the most to our collective well-being.

The Threat of Technology to Jobs

Bregman delves into the growing concern about how technology, particularly artificial intelligence and automation, might impact the job market in the near future. He argues that while fears about technology replacing human workers aren't new, there are reasons to take these concerns more seriously now than ever before.

Historical Context

Bregman begins by recounting the story of the Luddites:

• In the early 19th century, English factory workers rebelled against new machinery that threatened their jobs.
• One Luddite, William Leadbetter, claimed machines would be "the destruction of the universe."
• Throughout history, there have been similar fears about technology eliminating jobs.

The Great Decoupling

However, Bregman argues that something fundamentally changed around the start of the 21st century:

• Historically, job growth and economic productivity increased in tandem.
• Recently, there's been a "great decoupling" – productivity continues to rise, but job creation has slowed and median incomes have fallen.
• This suggests that technological progress is no longer creating jobs at the same rate it's increasing productivity.

Accelerating Technological Change

Bregman highlights several factors that make current technological change particularly disruptive:

1. Moore's Law:

   • The observation that computing power doubles roughly every two years.
   • This exponential growth means technological capabilities are increasing at an unprecedented rate.

2. Artificial Intelligence:

   • AI is becoming capable of performing not just physical tasks, but also cognitive ones.
   • This threatens a much wider range of jobs than previous technological revolutions.

3. The scale of disruption:

   • Bregman contrasts Kodak, which employed 145,000 people at its peak, with Instagram, which had just 13 employees when it was sold for $1 billion.
   • This illustrates how new technologies allow small groups to create enormous value with far fewer workers.

The Breadth of Impact

Unlike previous technological shifts, which primarily affected specific industries or types of work, Bregman argues that AI and automation could impact almost every job:

• Blue-collar jobs in manufacturing and transportation are at risk from robotics and self-driving vehicles.
• White-collar jobs in fields like law, medicine, and finance could be disrupted by AI systems capable of analyzing data and making decisions.
• Even creative fields might be affected as AI becomes better at tasks like writing and design.

The Need for New Solutions

Bregman contends that the pace and scale of this technological change means we need to rethink our approach to work and the economy:

• Traditional solutions like retraining may not be sufficient if machines can learn new skills faster than humans.
• We may need to consider more radical ideas, like Universal Basic Income, to ensure people can survive and thrive in a world with fewer traditional jobs.
• Society might need to shift its focus from employment as the primary means of distributing wealth to other mechanisms that can function in a highly automated economy.

By highlighting the unique challenges posed by current technological trends, Bregman sets the stage for discussing bold new approaches to organizing our economy and society in the face of rapid change.

The Growing Inequality Challenge

Bregman argues that the technological changes discussed earlier are likely to exacerbate economic inequality unless we take decisive action. He paints a picture of a potential future where a small elite benefits enormously from technological advances while the majority struggle to find their place in a radically changed economy.

The Potential for Extreme Inequality

Bregman cites futurologist Ray Kurzweil's predictions to illustrate the potential scale of technological change:

• Kurzweil believes computers will be as smart as humans by 2029.
• By 2045, he predicts they could be a billion times more intelligent than all human brains combined.

While these predictions might seem extreme, Bregman cautions against dismissing them entirely, given the rapid pace of technological progress we've already witnessed.

If such advances occur, the economic consequences could be profound:

• A small group of people who own and control advanced AI and robotics could become fabulously wealthy.
• Anyone unable to develop skills that machines can't master might be left behind economically.
• This could lead to levels of inequality far beyond what we see today.

The Limitations of Traditional Solutions

Bregman argues that our usual approaches to addressing technological disruption may not be sufficient:

1. Education:

   • Historically, education has been the answer to helping workers adapt to new technologies.
   • However, preparing people to compete with advanced AI and robotics is far more challenging than teaching farmers to use industrial machinery.
   • The pace of technological change may outstrip our ability to retrain workers.

2. Job creation:

   • Past technological revolutions have ultimately created more jobs than they destroyed.
   • However, if AI can perform both physical and cognitive tasks better than humans, it's unclear what new jobs might emerge for displaced workers.

The Need for Redistribution

Given these challenges, Bregman argues that we need to consider more radical solutions:

1. Rethinking work:

   • We may need to move away from the idea that everyone must work for a living.
   • This could involve embracing ideas like Universal Basic Income.

2. Taxation of technology-driven wealth:

   • If a small group is benefiting enormously from technological advances, we may need to tax this wealth more heavily to support the broader population.

3. Global wealth tax:

   • Bregman mentions economist Thomas Piketty's proposal for a global, progressive tax on wealth.
   • While Piketty himself describes this as "utopian," Bregman argues we may need to consider such bold ideas.

The Choice Before Us

Bregman presents our society with a stark choice:

1. Accept growing inequality as an inevitable consequence of technological progress.
2. Take bold action to ensure the benefits of technology are more widely shared.

He argues that the second option, while challenging, is necessary if we want to create a future that benefits everyone, not just a fortunate few. This sets the stage for his most radical proposal: open borders.

The Case for Open Borders

In what is perhaps his most controversial proposal, Bregman makes a case for opening all national borders. He argues that this single policy could do more to reduce global poverty and increase overall wealth than any other measure.

The Economic Case for Open Borders

Bregman cites several economic studies to support his argument:

• Four major studies predicted global economic growth of between 67% and 147% if borders were opened completely.
• Economist Lant Pritchett estimates that opening borders to people would have 1,000 times the impact of removing restrictions on capital movement.
• The potential economic gains dwarf those of other anti-poverty measures like foreign aid or free trade agreements.

The Scale of Potential Impact

To illustrate the potential impact, Bregman provides some striking examples:

• Opening borders could boost the income of the average Nigerian person by $22,000 annually, according to economist John Kennan.
• The gains from open borders could be so large that they would make current anti-poverty efforts seem almost trivial by comparison.

Addressing Moral Inconsistencies

Bregman challenges readers to confront what he sees as moral inconsistencies in our current approach to global inequality:

• We're outraged by income disparities within countries (e.g., between white and black Americans) but accept much larger disparities between countries.
• An American typically earns three times more than a Bolivian and 8.5 times more than a Nigerian for the same work, even accounting for living costs.
• Being born in a wealthy country is now the biggest determinant of one's economic prospects, more so than class or family background.

Historical Context

Bregman reminds us that the current system of strict border controls is a relatively recent development:

• Before World War I, borders were mostly just lines on maps.
• Countries that issued passports, like Russia, were considered uncivilized for doing so.
• The current system of tight border controls is a historical anomaly, not an inevitable feature of human society.

Challenges and Counterarguments

While Bregman acknowledges the political challenges of implementing open borders, he argues that the potential benefits are so large that we should seriously consider the idea. He anticipates several common objections:

1. Cultural concerns:

   • Some worry about the impact of mass migration on national cultures.
   • Bregman argues that cultures have always evolved through contact with others and that diversity can be a source of strength.

2. Economic fears:

   • There are concerns about job competition and strain on public services.
   • Bregman contends that the overall economic gains would more than offset these issues, creating new opportunities for everyone.

3. Security worries:

   • Some fear open borders would make it easier for criminals or terrorists to move between countries.
   • Bregman suggests that resources currently used for border control could be redirected to more effective security measures.

A Call for Bold Thinking

Ultimately, Bregman presents open borders as the ultimate test of our commitment to improving the world:

• If we truly want to make the world a better place, he argues, we need to make it a more open place.
• He challenges readers to imagine a world where accident of birth doesn't determine one's economic prospects.
• While acknowledging the idea seems utopian, he reminds us that many of today's realities would have seemed utopian to our ancestors.

By presenting the case for open borders, Bregman pushes readers to think beyond conventional solutions and consider truly transformative ideas for addressing global inequality and poverty.

Conclusion: Embracing Utopian Thinking

Bregman concludes "Utopia for Realists" by making a passionate case for embracing big, bold ideas to improve our world. He argues that we have the wealth, knowledge, and technology to create a radically better society – what we lack is the imagination and will to make it happen.

Recapping the Big Ideas

Throughout the book, Bregman has presented several transformative proposals:

1. Universal Basic Income: Providing everyone with a basic level of financial security.
2. A 15-hour workweek: Redistributing work to allow more leisure and personal development time.
3. Rethinking progress: Moving beyond GDP to measure what truly matters for human well-being.
4. Revaluing essential work: Giving more recognition and compensation to jobs that keep society functioning.
5. Preparing for technological disruption: Considering how to fairly distribute the benefits of AI and automation.
6. Open borders: Allowing free movement of people to dramatically reduce global poverty.

The Power of Utopian Thinking

Bregman argues that these ideas might seem utopian, but that's precisely why they're valuable:

• Throughout history, ideas once considered utopian have become reality.
• Thinking big allows us to break free from the constraints of our current system and imagine truly transformative change.
• By aiming high, we can achieve more than if we limit ourselves to small, incremental improvements.

Overcoming Cynicism and Complacency

Bregman identifies two main obstacles to embracing these big ideas:

1. Cynicism: The belief that significant change is impossible or that human nature is fundamentally selfish.
2. Complacency: The tendency to accept the status quo, especially when we're personally comfortable.

He challenges readers to overcome these mindsets:

• Remember that many aspects of our current society (democracy, universal suffrage, social safety nets) once seemed utopian.
• Recognize that human beings are capable of great altruism and cooperation when given the right circumstances.
• Understand that our current levels of wealth and technology make previously unthinkable ideas possible.

A Call to Action

Bregman concludes with a stirring call to action:

• We have the resources and knowledge to create a much better world.
• What we need now is the courage to think big and the determination to turn those thoughts into reality.
• By embracing utopian thinking, we can work towards a future that's not just marginally better, but radically improved for everyone.

He encourages readers to:

1. Question assumptions about how society must function.
2. Engage in discussions about big ideas, even if they seem unrealistic at first.
3. Support political and social movements that push for transformative change.
4. Remain optimistic about humanity's potential to create a better world.

Bregman's final message is one of hope and possibility. He argues that by daring to imagine a better world and working tirelessly to make it a reality, we can create a future that truly deserves to be called utopian – not as an impossible dream, but as an achievable goal.