Why do people cling to beliefs that seem irrational? Conspiracy theories may not just be about truth but about fulfilling our deep need for understanding in a chaotic world.
1. Conspiracies are real, but conspiracy theories often aren’t.
Though conspiracies do exist—when two or more people secretly plot an illegal or deceitful act—conspiracy theories are speculative explanations for events that often lack evidence. These theories question official narratives and suggest secretive, intentional wrongdoing.
For example, the Apollo 11 moon landing is a favorite target of conspiracy theorists who claim it was staged by NASA. This ignores substantial evidence, such as rocks brought back from the moon or the hundreds of thousands involved in the mission.
To analyze these claims, Occam's razor helps us navigate between competing explanations. The simplest explanation—not thousands of collaborators faking history but a real moon landing—is more plausible. Yet conspiracy theorists bolster their ideas with celebrity endorsements or pseudo-experts to gain credibility.
Examples
- NASA moon landing theories persist despite scientific evidence.
- British and French conspiracy to divide the Ottoman Empire after WWI fueled later speculations about imperialist plots.
- Celebrities have amplified fringe ideas, such as the belief in reptilian overlords.
2. Doubt and circular evidence make theories seem believable.
Conspiracies gain traction through the creation of circular “evidence,” where parties continuously cite each other. This strategy gives an air of authority but offers no new proof, simply recycling claims.
A tragic example surrounds Princess Diana’s death. Jeffrey Steinberg claimed numerous anomalies in the accident, pointing to Mohamed al-Fayed for support. Al-Fayed, in turn, claimed Steinberg supported his suspicions. This circular linkage bolsters theories without introducing solid proof.
Conspiracy theories often start with small doubts and build grand narratives. When Diana’s crash involved a missing Fiat Uno, whispers grew: Was it more than an accident? Theories escalated, igniting imaginations about royal motives, despite evidence cleared by forensic experts.
Examples
- Diana conspiracy theories use circular claims from Steinberg and al-Fayed.
- Doubt sparked by a disappearing Fiat Uno tipped the scales toward speculative theories rather than accepting randomness.
- The role of rumors feeds loops of unverified “proof” in conspiracy stories.
3. We crave order, not chaos, and conspiracy theories oblige.
Chaos frightens people. When events seem random, we look for patterns, reasons, or culprits instead of accepting that bad things sometimes just happen.
This need for order is magnified under personal or societal stress. In the 1980s, British pacifists blamed then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's government for activist Hilda Murrell’s murder, seeking explanations for political and personal losses they faced as a group.
Blaming an external force often appeals to people marginalized by systems of power. Conspiracy theories shift responsibility to unseen enemies while restoring a false sense of control. Tragedy feels easier to accept when it follows a foreseen logic, however false that logic may be.
Examples
- Random chaos, like a car accident, can lead to theories blaming governments or organizations.
- British socialists created Thatcher assassination theories to cope with powerlessness.
- Believers suggest hidden puppet-masters instead of unpredictable life chances.
4. Stories about famous people often draw us in.
Celebrities fascinate people, which is why conspiracy theories surrounding them thrive. Iconic figures symbolize more than themselves—they represent cultural aspirations, and their deaths often feel too significant to be simple bad luck.
Princess Diana’s death is a prominent example. Beyond her status as a royal, she was a global icon of beauty and charity. Speculations about British aristocracy conspiring against her provided a way for fans to grapple with her untimely death.
Similarly, Marilyn Monroe’s death inspired claims of hidden CIA involvement, coinciding with public mistrust of secret agencies during that era. This reflects a broader tendency to weave popular figures into discussions of hidden systems and unseen powers.
Examples
- Diana conspiracy theories tie into celebrities' broader cultural meaning.
- Marilyn Monroe conspiracies blame shadowy powers like the CIA for her early death.
- JFK theories echo the public desire to find deep significance in historical events.
5. Why do conspiracy theories comfort us?
While conspiracy theories may seem unsettling, they often provide explanations that soothe fears of randomness. Even when malevolent actors are behind perceived tragedies in these stories, their calculated efforts feel more manageable than unpredictable chaos.
One example is the infamous Holocaust denial. A sinister but ordered narrative blamed a Jewish conspiracy using false "evidence” like The Protocols of the Elders of Zion, rather than acknowledging the chaos of post-World War I political upheaval in Germany.
By assigning responsibility to identifiable agents, conspiracy theories remove the disarray of randomness. Even imaginary or absurd conspiracies are easier to digest emotionally than a stark acceptance of disorder.
Examples
- Diana's tragic death spurred soothingly structured theories, rejecting randomness.
- Holocaust denial promoted predictable villain narratives using propaganda.
- In simpler forms, any secret cabal offers convenient answers to life's mysteries.
6. Fiction hooks us because it mirrors our deeper doubts.
Works like The Da Vinci Code captivate audiences by exploring hidden truths. Fictional plots take well-known doubts—like historical corruption in religious institutions—and create engaging, relatable stories.
Although it’s a novel, The Da Vinci Code reflected real mistrust around hiding secrets in Catholic institutions, exacerbated by modern scandals like abuse cover-ups. Themes resonate because they reflect widely held concerns.
Fiction like this doesn’t convince people outright that a plot exists, but it primes them to lean toward ideas of systemic betrayal. People already suspicious of societal structures find personal affirmation in such storytelling.
Examples
- The Da Vinci Code highlighted centuries of mistrust surrounding the Church.
- Readers' real suspicions make fiction blend into real-life conspiracies.
- Doubting systems or power is self-reinforced by such fictional works.
7. Power plays exploit conspiracy theories.
Unfortunately, groups or individuals have historically weaponized conspiracy theories. The Nazis, for example, leaned into "Jewish world dominance” conspiracies to justify anti-Semitism and genocide.
Similarly, Cold War propaganda frequently used theories against perceived enemies. Soviet plots painted the West as working through shadowy agencies to undermine communism, breeding paranoia on an international scale.
The use of conspiracy theories isn’t just social mischief—it is often a deliberate attempt at manipulation. They serve those looking to divide societies or justify harmful policies.
Examples
- “Jewish conspiracies” fueled systemic attacks by Nazi Germany.
- Soviet rumor mills accused NATO of secret plots undermining global peace.
- Modern extremist groups create crisis narratives to galvanize hatred.
8. Tragedy drives theory development.
When major crises strike, the human need for meaning grows. Whether assassinations or natural disasters, individuals can't resist crafting explanations that shift blame to conspirators.
The 9/11 terrorist attacks generated ideas about U.S. government insiders orchestrating events. It became easier for skeptics to suggest political gain than accept tragic vulnerabilities in security systems.
We see recurring theory clusters emerge around tragic events, scrambling to fill the void opened by uncertainty. By mapping trends historically, patterns in desperation-fueled theory formation become visible.
Examples
- 9/11’s “inside job” ideas aimed at altering discourse but misled the public.
- Unknown elements surrounding Diana’s crash fueled tabloid mania.
- Sudden deaths often lead to immediate unofficial “detective” spins isolating villains.
9. Simplicity disproves conspiracies.
One principle debunks many theories: excessive complexity means something likely isn’t true. Successful conspiracies require smaller networks of minimal exposure—a far cry from the impossible coordination many theories assume.
Take the moon landing again: Thousands of engineers, years invested, and global cooperation prove difficult to fake. In contrast, successful “true” operations historically featured tight, poorly maintained secrets easily broken once pressure intensified.
Occam's razor—a tool that suggests the simplest answer should often be chosen—dispels speculative ideas, simplifying where paranoia spirals.
Examples
- Moon landing hoax theories ignore how leaks expose most large-scale organizing.
- Diana’s unwillingness to wear her seatbelt explains her death far more than hidden plots.
- Simple random factors resolve accident queries oftentimes distorted via rumors.
Takeaways
- Use Occam’s razor to distinguish likely truths from elaborate fantasies. Always ask: is this the simplest explanation?
- Avoid circular evidence loops when evaluating the credibility of sources. Cross-check independent validations.
- Reflect on why a theory appeals to you personally—seek to understand its emotional pull rather than its factual substance.